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China’s Reaction to Trump’s Election Win

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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Large Number of Steel Traders Bankrupt and Liquidated

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that, in August 2023, several cities and regions in China have successively experienced steel trader debt default incidents. Provinces and cities affected include Sichuan, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Guizhou and others. Jiangsu, Henan, Wuhan and some others have issued risk notices to warn all companies to pay attention to risk prevention, not be greedy for low prices, avoid “blind transactions,” and work together to overcome the unfolding financial crisis.

In the meantime, according to information from China’s National Enterprise Bankruptcy and Reorganization Network, a large number of steel traders have entered the stage of bankruptcy and liquidation. In just the first two weeks of August, 21 sizable steel traders received court rulings for bankruptcy and liquidation. Officials from the China Iron and Steel Association said that, in the face of development difficulties, steel companies “should jointly strengthen self-discipline, pay close attention to the total demand and structural changes of the downstream steel consumption industry, and reasonably control the steel inventory level.” The steel companies should jointly “determine production by sales,” i.e. do not turn cash into inventory; “determine production by efficiency,” i.e. do not cause operational cost increase; and “determine sales by cash,” i.e. do not turn sales into collection obligations.

Source: Sina, August 14, 2023
https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/wemedia/2023-08-14/doc-imzhemwz4905118.shtml

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China Restricts What Apps Can be Installed on Mobile Devices

On July 21, 2023, a Chinese government website published a “Notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the Filing of Mobile Internet Applications,” stating that Chinese companies are now required to register their mobile Internet Applications (hereinafter referred to as “apps”) with the Chinese government. Unregistered apps will not be supported by Chinese network access providers and content platforms.

Here are some key excerpts from the notice:

II. Task Specification

(1) Any app owners engaged in Internet information services in China should follow the “People’s Republic of China Anti-Telecommunications Network Fraud Law” and “Internet Information Service Management Measures” (State Council Decree No. 292) and other provisions to file their apps for the record. Those who have not filed shall not participate in app services.

(2) The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will supervise and guide the national task of registering apps. The Communications Bureaus of provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities are responsible for management of the implementation and supervision of app registration.

…

(9) Network access service providers, content platforms, and smart terminal manufacturers shall not provide network access, distribution, and pre-configuration services for apps that have not been registered.

Source: Chinese Government website, July 21, 2023
https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/202308/content_6897341.htm

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics Information/Technology

China Starts Assessing Debt Owed by Local Governments

The Economic Observer, a Chinese newspaper focused on economics, reported that Zhengzhou City (Henan Province), Tianjin, and some other places have required district and county governments to make an assessment of money they owe to the private real estate enterprises.

A number of private real estate enterprises told The Economic Observer that local city governments owe them in the range of 1 – 2 billion yuan (US$140 – 280 million). These arrears include commitments to return land premiums, land tax rebates, government-subsidized housing construction deposits, land cleaning advances, et cetera.

On August 3, Pan Gongsheng, the Party Secretary and Governor of the People’s Bank of China, presided over a symposium on financial support for the development of private enterprises. According to a person familiar with the matter, some companies attending the symposium complained about problems with local government debt.

Source: The Economic Observer, August 22, 2023
http://www.eeo.com.cn/2023/0822/602216.shtml

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

For “Humanitarian Reasons,” China Doesn’t Block Philippine Resupply of Grounded Warship in Disputed Waters

On August 7, China blocked two Philippine supply vessels from unloading supplies at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. China blocked the supply vessels by firing water cannons at them. The vessels were supposed to deliver supplies to soldiers stationed on a Philippine warship BRP Sierra Madra that has been grounded at the atoll since 1999. Both China and the Philippines claim sovereignty over the Spratly Island area where the Second Thomas Shoal is located.

On August 22, the Philippines sent resupply ships to the shoal again. This time, China didn’t stop them.

Following the event, Xinhua published a statement by the Spokesman of Chinese Coast Guard Bureau: “On August 22, two Philippine supply vessels and two [Philippine] marine police vessels entered the waters adjacent to the Second Thomas Island in the Spratly Islands area without the permission from the Chinese Government. In accordance with the law, the Chinese Marine Police gave the Philippine vessels a stern warning, followed them throughout their entire journey, and effectively restrained them. At the same time, in view of the fact that the Philippine vessels were not carrying large-scale building materials, the Chinese Marine Police made a temporary special arrangement for humanitarian reasons, allowing the Philippine vessels to transport food and other living necessities to the military vessels stranded on the beach. China has indisputable sovereignty over the Spratly Islands and their adjacent waters, including the Second Thomas Island. China firmly opposes the Philippines using the excuse of “resupply” to deliver illegal building materials to the illegally-grounded warship. The Chinese Maritime Police will continue to protect China’s rights and carry out law-enforcement activities in the waters under China’s jurisdiction in accordance with the law.”

Source: Xinhua, August 22, 2023
http://www.news.cn/world/2023-08/22/c_1129816942.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend

China’s Weaponization of Mekong River Dams to Pressure Downstream Countries

For the past decade, the Mekong River has had abnormal water pattern: high flows during the dry season and low flows during the rainy season. This is caused by the upstream Chinese dams, which release water for power generation during the dry season and retain water during the rainy season.

The Mekong River has a total length of more than 4,800 kilometers (~3000 miles) in its main branch. Its 2,139-kilometer (1330 mile) upper section in China is known as the Lancang River. After flowing out of China, the Mekong River flows through five countries in Southeast Asia – Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. It is a lifeline supporting 65 million people.

By the end of December 2020, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had built 12 giant dams on the main branch of the Lancang River, with eight more under construction. In addition, there are 85 dams on hundreds of tributaries to the Lancang River.

On January 1, 2019, China put four newly-constructed dams into operation. As a result, the Lower Mekong has experienced a severe drought starting that year and lasting for more than four years (through the present).

The year 2020 was the driest year for the Mekong on record. Although upstream Chinese reservoirs had sufficient water during the rainy season, some of the Mekong River beds downstream were dry and cracked.

China’s use of dams to exert pressure on downstream countries has been going on since at least 2016. In March of that year, the Mekong River’s water volume was reduced, and Vietnam’s rice region suffered a severe drought, with seawater back filling the river bed. The CCP then took the “generous” step of releasing water for “disaster relief.” A week later, China’s then-Premier Li Keqiang hosted the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Meeting in Sanya, Hainan. The five thirsty downstream countries signed the Lancang-Mekong Agreement, signing on to Chinese investment, loans, and a special fund to promote China’s Belt Road Initiative in Southeast Asia.

Source: Epoch Times, August 10, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/8/10/n14051766.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese Author: Chinese Insurance Industry is a Time Bomb

Lao Man (老蛮) is a Chinese writer who publishes on economic topics. He recently published an article warning that Chinese insurance companies are another time bomb that may explode soon.

He gave the following data (in Billions of Yuan):

  • Year                       Investment Income          Payout       Net
  • 2018                               7,105                          12,298        -5,193
  • 2019                               9,152                          12,984        -3,832
  • 2020                               11,729                        13,907        -2,178
  • 2021                               12,775                        15,609        -2,834
  • 2022                               4,640                          15,485        -10,845
  • 2023 (Jan – Jun)          3,194                          9,151          -5,957

He pointed out that many insurance companies have a cash pool for investment, and that they use their investment returns to cover part of their insurance payouts (with any gap between investment income and insurance payouts being made up by e.g. premiums charged to the insured).

It was a good sign that the gap between the investment income and insurance payouts was shrinking from 2018 to 2020. The gap held steady in 2021, but it shot up dramatically in 2022 and has remained high during the first half of 2023.

The reason is that insurance companies can no longer generate high returns on their investments due to China’s economic downslide. This will inevitably eat into the insurance companies’ cash pools. According to the article, insurers will be forced to take in more customers and use the new customers’ money to pay for the existing customers, essentially running a Ponzi scheme.

Source: China News, August 15, 2023
https://news.creaders.net/china/2023/08/15/2637675.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Lianhe Zaobao Criticizes Xi Jinping

Singapore-based Lianhe Zaobao used to maintain good relations with the Chinese Communist Party. Recently, however, it published a commentary that openly criticized Beijing’s policy. Two versions of the commentary were published.

The first version has the author’s name in the title: “Liu Mengxiong: the Problem Is Economic, But the Root Cause is Political.” Liu is a Hong Kong businessman and former member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. In the past, he had a pro-Beijing stance. The second version of the article, titled “Commentary: the Problem Is Economic, But the Root Cause Is Political,” indicated the author’s name in a footnote.

In the article, Liu listed economic problems faced by China, praised Deng Xiaoping’s policy of economic reform, and criticized Xi Jinping’s policy (without mentioning Xi’s name explicitly). “The first 30-odd years of reform and opening up were characterized by a steady upward trajectory, but in recent years, [China] has fallen into a downward spiral. If we look at the essence of the phenomenon, we will find that the most fundamental reason for the economic reversal lies in politics.”

The article lists many policies that, in the author’s opinion, have had a negative impact. These include stressing the party’s control over companies, policy on COVID, and the CCP’s hostility against the U.S.

The article ends by calling for political reform and stating that “The economic adversity caused by politics must be treated politically. The question is, does the princeling leader have the sense of historical mission and vision necessary to realize economic marketization, the rule of law, and the democratization of politics through reform of the political system?”

Sources:
1. Lianhe Zaobao, August 21, 2023
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/forum/views/story20230821-1425457
2. Lianhe Zaobao, August 21, 2023
https://www.kzaobao.com/mon/keji/20230821/145204.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

CCTV and African Media Discuss Future Collaboration

Chinese state newspaper People’s Daily reported that state broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) signed a cooperation agreement with the African Broadcasting Union (ABU) and several other African media organizations upon Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to South Africa. The agreement aims to “strengthen cooperation in content creation and sharing, technological innovation, personnel training, and industry expansion.” It also aims to “promote mutual understanding and people-to-people exchanges between China and Africa.”

As part of the agreement, a “China-Africa Friendship (Season 4)” Chinese film and television program exhibition has been launched. According to People’s Daily, more than 10 high-quality programs will be screened by the mainstream media of South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and 10 other African countries.

Source: People’s Daily (China), August 22, 2023
http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2023-08/22/nw.D110000renmrb_20230822_7-02.htm

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend