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China’s Reaction to Trump’s Election Win

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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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EUCCC: EU Companies in China Experiencing Commitment Fatigue

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that Jens Eskelund, chairman of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China (EUCCC), said that China’s efforts to revitalize the private economy are insufficient and that Chinese officials have been unwilling to seriously discuss how to solve the country’s core economic problems. He also said that EU companies in China are experiencing “commitment fatigue” and are are beginning to doubt whether the Chinese government will enact meaningful economic support policies.

Eskelund said that the EUCCC has yet to see signs that the Chinese government is willing to implement structural reforms to address the fundamental challenges facing the Chinese economy, thus preventing foreign private companies from realizing their potential to support the Chinese economy. He mentioned that the Chamber of Commerce has met with Chinese government officials many times since the Chinese government relaxed its strict Zero-Covid measures, but these officials have not been willing to seriously discuss how to solve the country’s core problems.

China’s overall economy is weak, and the manufacturing and service industries are shrinking. The Chinese government has issued multiple documents in the past month promising to revitalize the country’s private sector. Chinese officials have thus far refrained from enacting large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, however, instead using relatively modest measures to boost consumption.

Source: CNA, August 5, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202308053001.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Australia and U.S. Establishing Joint Intelligence Center

Major Australian Chinese language newspaper Australian Chinese Daily recently reported that the agreement just reached at the Annual Meeting of the Australian and US Defense Ministers (AUSMIN) has further deepened the Australia-US military alliance. In response to China’s growing threat to regional stability, U.S. intelligence analysts will be placed in the defense intelligence agency in Canberra, and Australia’s northern air base will be expanded to accommodate more U.S. military aircraft. The talks also reached an agreement to re-expand the deployment of the U.S. military in Australia, including amphibious combat forces and maritime reconnaissance aircraft. As expected, the U.S. will provide advanced technology to aid in Australia’s domestic production of missiles and will ensure that Australia is a secondary supplier of U.S. missiles.

According to the Daily report, the AUSMIN communiqué contains multiple criticisms of China. It accuses China of exacerbating regional tensions with its “excessive maritime claims,” urges China to end its threat of force against Taiwan, and asks Beijing to cooperate with the United States constructively.

The new Australia-U.S. joint intelligence center is likely to track China’s security agreements with countries in the South Pacific and Southeast Asia, as well as to monitor China’s further militarization efforts in the South China Sea.

Source: Australian Chinese Daily, July 31, 2023
https: //www.acd.com.au/australian-news/aomeifangzhangwaizhanghuitangongbaozezhongguo-qianghuajunshilianmengshelianheqingbaozhongxin/

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Nikkei Chinese: China’s July Manufacturing PMI Below 50 for Fourth Consecutive Month

Nikkei Chinese Edition recently reported that, according to data just released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July is 49.3. The Chinese real estate market continued to slump, and the production growth of building materials was sluggish. Although the PMI was 0.3 percentage points higher than last month, it has been below the 50 threshold for four consecutive months. This is the first time since October 2019 that the PMI has seen such a stretch of low prints, when it was below 50 for six consecutive months.

The Chinese PMI is based on a survey of 3,200 manufacturing companies, aggregating data on items such as new orders, production and employees. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity relative to the previous period, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Looking at the composition of July’s PMI number, new orders as a primary indicator stood at 49.5. Production fell 0.1 percentage points to 50.2, exceeding 50 for 2 consecutive months. The employment index, which reflects employment trends, deteriorated. Numbers also showed smaller businesses are more pessimistic about the economy. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the Chinese State Council, said that more than 60 percent of enterprises believe that current demand is insufficient. Many analysts said that policy makers may be hesitant to use aggressive stimulus to boost domestic consumption amid fears of rising debt risks, despite Beijing’s urgent desire to improve the economy.

Source: Nikkei Chinese, July 31, 2023
https://cn.nikkei.com/china/ceconomy/53092-2023-07-31-14-32-32.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Lithuania Winning Standoff Against Beijing on Taiwan Issue

Over a year ago, Lithuania faced unprecedented pressure from China for refusing to toe Beijing’s line on the Taiwan issue. It took the lead in exiting the China-led “17+1” cooperation mechanism with Central and Eastern European countries in 2021 and later allowed Taiwan to open a representative office in Vilnius under the name “Taiwan.” In response, China launched a comprehensive retaliation, including applying economic sanctions, calling back its Ambassador, and downgrading diplomatic relations.

Recently, Matas Maldeikis, Lithuanian Member of Parliament, revealed in an interview with the Voice of America, that the swift and decisive victory the communist regime of China expected did not happen. Lithuania’s economy grew and its exports increased by 45 percent in just a year and a half after Beijing’s sanctions. This demonstrates that countries need not bow to pressure from Beijing.

Maldeikis mentioned Lithuania’s historical tradition of resistance to power and its people’s values as reasons for daring to confront China on the Taiwan issue. Lithuania understood the political dynamics at play and refused to compromise its principles for short-term economic gains, showing a willingness to withstand market pressure and not betray values for profit.

This resilient stance has set an example for other nations on how to navigate relations with China.

Source: Voice of America, August 7, 2023
https://www.voachinese.com/a/lithuania-china-taiwan-european-union-20230804/7212200.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend

Xi Jinping Keeps Replacing Top Military Generals

Xi Jinping has made a series of changes among the top ranks of the People’s Liberation Army.

On July 31, Xi Jinping promoted Wang Houbin (王厚斌) and Xu Xisheng (徐西盛) to the rank of General and appointed them to the positions of Rocket Force Commander and Political Commissar, respectively. These appointments confirm a rumor that has been circulating for the past month: that former Rocket Force Commander Li Yuchao (李玉超) and former Political Commissar Xu Zhongbo (徐忠波) had been removed from their positions.

On July 31, Nanjing News said that Liu Qingsong (刘青松) is the Political Commissar of the Eastern Theater. He had previously held the position of Political Commissar of the Northern Theater.

Wu Junbao (吴俊宝) was promoted to Commander of the Air Force of the Eastern Theater. Before, he held the position of Deputy Commander.

Qiao Xiangji (乔相记) became the Deputy Commander of the Southern Theater and the Commander of the Air Force of the Southern Theater. He had been Deputy Commander of the Western Theater before.

Zhang Jian (张践) became the Deputy Commander and Chief of Staff of the Western Theater. He served as the Commander of the Army of the Southern Theater before.

Source: NTDTV, August 4, 2023
https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2023/08/04/a103760943.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Huanqiu: Russian Border Guards Mistreated Chinese Citizens

Huanqiu (a.k.a. The Global Times), a Chinese state-run newspaper, reported that China’s Embassy to Russia posted an article on the open internet complaining that the Russian government had mistreated five Chinese citizens. There have been many previous incidents where Russian authorities treated Chinese citizens badly, but the Chinese government has always remained silent in the past.

The Huanqiu article said that the Chinese Embassy to Russia lodged a complaint with the Russian authorities on August 4, 2023, after five Chinese citizens were prevented from entering Russia via the Karauzek border checkpoint in Astrakhan Oblast. The individuals’ tourist visas were canceled and they were denied entry to the country. Upon receiving a distress call, the consular staff at the Chinese Embassy to Russia investigated the situation, consoled the affected individuals, and promptly contacted the Russian authorities to seek a resolution. The embassy requested that Russia facilitate the reapplication for visas and ensure the smooth entry of the affected individuals as per their initial request.

According to the article, the Chinese Embassy reviewed videos uploaded by the individuals on August 2 that showed the Russian border personnel questioning them for 4 hours. After reviewing the video, the Chinese Embassy took immediate action. Embassy staff met with Russian authorities, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Federal Border Guard Service, and the Federal Security Service, to express concerns over the incident. The embassy criticized the “excessive and brutal enforcement actions” of the Russian border guards, which “seriously harmed the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens.” They emphasized that such behavior was not in line with “the friendly relations between China and Russia or the increasing trend of friendly exchanges” between the two countries’ people. The embassy urged Russia to “thoroughly investigate the incident, take active measures to rectify the negative impact, and ensure that similar incidents do not occur in the future, while respecting and safeguarding the dignity and legitimate rights of Chinese citizens.”

The article stated that the reported reason for the detention was a discrepancy between the Chinese nationals’ intended destination within Russia and the destination that they had given on their visa applications.

Source: Huanqiu, August 4, 2023
https://hqtime.huanqiu.com/article/4DzJZ1NrAwU

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Guangming Daily: It Is Not China But the U.S. That Does the Economic Coercion

Guangming Daily has published a response to recent criticism from the international community, saying that it is not Communist China that conducts economic coercion of Asia-Pacific countries; rather it is the U.S. that is coercive.

The article said that the U.S. aims to create a new narrative to rally allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific region, building an “anti-economic coercion” coalition against China’s rise. The U.S. seeks to create a hostile external public opinion environment for China, and the U.S.’ intensified portrayal of China’s “economic threat” is for the purpose of excluding China from the global supply chain, critical technology, and trade systems. This approach, camouflaged as exposition of China’s “economic coercion,” is, in reality, economic coercion by the U.S. against China.

The article further argues that this “economic coercion” by the U.S. will fail for the following reasons:

  1. Many Asia-Pacific countries understand the damage caused by the U.S.’ “economic coercion” and won’t support it.
  2. The U.S.’ “economic coercion” tactic is against the trend of openness and inclusion in the Asia-Pacific region, and therefore it is against the interest of the countries in this region.
  3. The U.S.’ effort of using this “economic coercion” to promote the “de-Chinaization” of the Asia-Pacific economy is nothing but a foolish and unrealistic delusion.

Source: Guangming Daily, August 3, 2023
https://news.gmw.cn/2023-08/03/content_36741488.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS US-China Relations

Xinhua: Chinese and Russian Think Tanks Say AUKUS Is Promoting Nuclear Proliferation

China’s state-run Xinhua news reported on August 3rd that the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association and the Russian Center for Energy and Security Studies jointly released a research report in Vienna, Austria, titled “The Risks of AUKUS Nuclear Submarine Cooperation on Nuclear Non-Proliferation Mechanisms and Global Security.” The report claims that AUKUS, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, is intensifying the risk of nuclear proliferation. The report additionally says that AUKUS “poses a serious challenge to the international nuclear non-proliferation system and the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), severely threatening regional peace and stability.”

The report says that AUKUS cooperation “undermines international norms and creates negative impacts on various non-proliferation mechanisms, nuclear safety, and security, leading to increased arms competition and global insecurity.”

Li Song, the Chinese representative to the United Nations and other international organizations in Vienna,  said that AUKUS nuclear submarine cooperation should be handled through consultation and consensus among the member states of IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency. He said that China will continue to work towards promoting “open, inclusive, and sustainable” intergovernmental discussion processes at the IAEA.

Source: Xinhua, August 3, 2023
http://www.news.cn/world/2023-08/03/c_1129784778.htm

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations