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China’s Reaction to Trump’s Election Win

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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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China’s Housing Market Continues Decline, Early Mortgage Repayment on the Rise

The Chinese real estate market, particularly the second-hand housing market, is experiencing a downward trend. The city of Shanghai is leading the decline in prices.

Out of 70 major cities surveyed, 63 saw a decrease in second-hand housing prices in June. New home prices in 31 cities increased slightly compared to the previous month, but the overall downward trend is evident when considering both new and second-hand homes in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.

A report by Chinese media outlet “The Paper” reveals that less than 30% of Cina’s top 100 real estate companies achieved year-on-year growth in monthly performance this June. Nearly 60% of the top 100 companies experienced a monthly performance decline exceeding 30%, indicating a challenging market situation. The construction industry is also affected, with a significant decrease in new housing construction area and real estate development investment.

The market experienced a rebound in March and April due to pent-up housing demand from the pandemic, but it cooled off quickly afterwards. Real estate companies usually increase supply in June to boost sales, but this year the supply was at a five-year low. The concept of “early repayment” has been gaining traction in the market, with individuals choosing to repay their housing loans early due to higher mortgage rates on existing loans from previous years as well as declining investment returns from financial products. Both the early loan repayment trend and falling housing prices indicate clear downward pressure on the Chinese real estate market.

Source: Deutsche Welle, July 15, 2023
https://p.dw.com/p/4Twun

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Civil Servants in Guangdong Face 25% Pay Cut

In recent days there have been widespread reports on Chinese social media that the Guangdong provincial government has announced a 25% pay cut for civil servants, sparking online debate. Although officials have not publicly responded to the reports, sources in Guangdong and other provinces have revealed that civil servant pay cuts across China are now an undisputed fact. Many netizens have commented on the above reports, urging the government to clarify whether the 25% cut is real, but officials have remained silent.

Analysts attribute these pay cuts to the collapse of local government income, which depends on revenue land sales. Government land sales have plummeted in the current recessionary environment, even falling as low as zero in some areas.

According to unconfirmed reports, the Guangdong provincial government recently held a press conference announcing the decision regarding pay cuts, confirming earlier speculation. Prior to this, several other provinces had already lowered civil service wages, including a 25% reduction in Zhejiang, 15% in Jiangsu, and 20% in Fujian. With the Guangdong news, broader civil service pay cuts seem imminent.

During more prosperous years, civil servants in economically vibrant regions enjoyed higher salaries. Some areas in Shandong have gone months without disbursing wages.

Source: Radio Free Asia, July 11, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/gt2-07112023083235.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

UDN: Shanghai’s “City Code” to replace “Covid Health Code”

According to a recent report by United Daily News (UDN), one of Taiwan’s primary news groups, local governments across China adopted “Health Codes” to control travel during the three-year period of China’s Zero-Covid control. Although that the Chinese government’s Zero-Covid controls have now been largely lifted, the Health Code platform remains in place. Shanghai now intends to transform its city Health Code to a “City Code,” which will be integrated with public life in all aspects and become one of the region’s “social governance” tools. This move has been widely viewed by the public as strengthening the means of monitoring and controlling the flow of people.

The new City Code is critical in creating a comprehensive urban service and governance system that envisions “One person, one code,” “One company, one code,” and “One object, one code.” In Shanghai’s plan for individuals, the tracking includes monitoring of offline government services like medical treatments, rides on public transportation, visits to public tourist spots, public library visits, etc. For companies, the City Code serves will factor into scenarios such as company information disclosure, production safety, government service recommendations, government policy delivery and comprehensive supervision, etc. The City Code will combined geographic information as well as block-chain technology.

Social affairs analysts expressed the view that Shanghai’s City Code is a major expansion of the Health Code for Covid prevention, and that it is undoubtedly the authorities’ intention to strengthen the control over all aspects of people’s life. Some netizens worry that the City Code could be abused by criminals. In addition to the infringement of citizens’ privacy, people may also suffer economic losses.

Source: UDN, July 11, 2023
https://udn.com/news/story/7332/7292645

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics Information/Technology

China’s June Export Numbers Continue to Decline

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to the data just released by the General Administration of Customs, the country’s export value in June 2023 decreased by 12.4 percent year-over-year in US dollar terms. Meanwhile, import value in June decreased by 6.8% year-over-year.

The June export numbers were lower than market expectations, showing the biggest drop in exports in three years. There are three main reasons behind the drop. First, the global economic downturn further weakened external demand for Chinese goods. Second, last year’s June export growth rate baseline had a sharp rise. Finally, China’s exports to the United States have declined rapidly. Analysts expect that exports in the third quarter will continue the negative growth trend.

In June, China’s exports to the United States fell by 23.7 percent year-over-year, a decline 5.5 percent larger than that of the previous month. Chinese exports to U.S. have been declining for 11 straight months. June exports to the EU fell by 12.9 percent year-over-year, a rate of decline 5.9 percentage points greater than the previous month. June exports to Japan fell by 15.6 percent year-over-year, a decline 2.3 percentage points greater than previous month. It is especially worth noting that, in June, China’s exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the country’s largest trading partner, fell by 16.9 percent year-over-year, an expanded decline of 1 percent from May. Meanwhile, Chinese exports to Russia grew by 90.9 percent year-over-year, with a high growth rate for four consecutive months.

Source: Sina, July 13, 2023
http://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/stock/go.php/vReport_Show/kind/lastest/rptid/742588141245/index.phtml

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

India Considers Banning 80 Percent of Rice Exports

Well-known Chinese news site NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) recently reported that India, the world’s largest exporter of rice, is considering a ban on all non-Basmati rice — the vast majority of the country’s rice exports. The proposed ban comes as domestic prices rise and the government wants to avoid the risk of higher inflation.

Rice prices in Asia now at 2.5-year high due to El Nino. The Indian government’s move could send already high rice prices soaring further. India’s possible export ban is expected to lower domestic rice prices, but could lead to higher global prices. Rice importers have reacted by starting to aggressively build inventories. Shares of Indian rice mills edged lower on this news.

Rice is the staple food for about half the world’s population, with Asia consuming about 90 percent of the global supply. India accounts for about 40 percent of the global rice trade. India supplies rice to more than 100 countries. Benin, China, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo are India’s largest buyers. According to India’s Food Ministry, rice prices in Delhi have risen about 15 percent this year and the national average price of rice has risen about 8 percent. Vietnam expects rice exports to climb to their highest level in about a decade this year, with big increases to the Philippines, China and Indonesia.

Source: NetEase, July 14, 2023
https://www.163.com/dy/article/I9J9CLEU05198NMR.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Internet Posting Calls for A4 Revolution Protest in Chengdu During the FISU World University Games

Chinese people had an “A4 Revolution” (holding a blank sheet of A4-size paper) to protest the communist regime’s inhumane lockdown for COVID control last year, which led to the authorities quickly ending the country’s zero-COVID policy.

Now, people are calling for another A4 Revolution protest in Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, when it hosts the Summer FISU World University Games from July 28 to August 8. On July 11, Anna Wang, founder of Shining Light Media, LLC, headquartered in Washington, DC, retweeted a message to call people to protest Xi Jinping’s dictatorship in Chengdu on July 28.

The post listed five points of caution for the safety of all protesters:

  1. Do not disclose any personal information when reposting or communicating on Telegram Messenger, Twitter, etc.
  2. Do not contact anyone whom you met online to jointly participate in the protest. Even if you discuss a joint action online, do not share the exact time and location since the other person might be undercover police.
  3. Before participating in a flash-mob protest, delete sensitive contents from your computer and mobile phone to prevent police searches from gathering information.
  4. Bring a lot of white paper instead of only one piece. If asked about it by the police, just make up a reason. You can also give distribute the white paper to other people to use.
  5. Do not take pictures on the protest site, unless you only take pictures and do not participate in protest. Separating picture taking and protest participation is to prevent the police tracking.

The posting also emphasized that “there is no organizer for this event, it’s a completely atomized protest.” It also said that the event will take place online and offline at the same time.

The post has been widely circulated on GitHub and other social platforms.

Source: Epoch Times, July 12, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/7/12/n14033119.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Social Stability

US Circuit Court Ruled that Falun Gong Practitioners Can Sue Cisco for Supporting the CCP

On July 7, a three-panel decision from the US Ninth Circuit Court gave Falun Gong practitioners a green light to sue Cisco System, Inc. for its action in designing the Internet censorship network used by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

The CCP carried out its Golden Shield project (金盾工程) from 2003 to 2006 to build the Internet censorship and monitor system used against the Chinese people. The system, known colloquially as “The Great Firewall of China,” not only blocks people inside China from visiting websites that the CCP does not want people to go to, but also monitors people’s actions on the Internet. Cisco, in order to get bigger access to the Chinese market, helped the CCP to design this censorship system; China lacked the sophisticated skills needed to develop the system on its own.

At a Congressional hearing in 2008, Cisco admitted to its involvement in developing the system. Its Vice President admitted that Cisco’s internal presentation included an official statement from the Chinese government on combating hostile elements, including religious organizations. Cisco also stated in the same or related PowerPoint presentations that the CCP would carry out a crackdown campaign against Falun Gong, describing the project as a lucrative opportunity for the company.

In 2011, Falun Gong practitioners brought a lawsuit against Cisco and two of its former executives, CEO John Chambers and China Vice President Fredy Cheung, for assisting the CCP in tracking and persecuting Falun Gong practitioners.

In 2014, a local district court rejected the case.

On July 7 of this year, the US Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals reversed the district court’s decision and reinstated all claims under the Alien Tort Statute against Cisco.

Source:
1. NTDTV, July 8, 2023
https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2023/07/08/a103745483.html
2. Minghui, July 10, 2023
https://www.minghui.org/mmh/articles/2023/7/10/462850.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources Government/Politics