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Lianhe Zaobao: Nvidia’s Chip Sales in China Expected to Be Zero in the Next Two Quarters

Singapore’s leading Chinese-language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao reported that Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang said U.S. export restrictions have effectively halted the company’s chip sales in China. He expects Nvidia’s sales in the Chinese market to drop to zero for at least the next two quarters.

Huang urged Washington and Beijing to improve trade relations, arguing that access to the Chinese market is essential for maintaining U.S. competitiveness in artificial intelligence. “Being able to compete in China also helps us succeed globally,” he said, emphasizing that the U.S. needs to restore its market presence in China to sustain its global leadership in AI.

He noted that China’s AI chip market is currently valued at around US$50 billion and could expand to US$200 billion by 2030, yet American companies are currently shut out of this growth. China has long been a major revenue source that enables companies to reinvest and accelerate innovation, Huang said. “But for now, we have to assume our sales are zero.”

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, November 21, 2025
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/finance/china/story20251121-7853814?ref=global-finance

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology US-China Relations

Vietnam Expects to Outperform India in GDP Race

Chinese outlet Time Weekly recently reported that Vietnam has released new official economic data showing third-quarter GDP growth of 8.23 percent year-on-year. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh told the National Assembly that Vietnam’s full-year GDP growth in 2025 is expected to reach eight percent.

Vietnam’s rapid expansion continues to be driven primarily by its manufacturing sector. The government aims for 10 percent GDP growth next year. Earlier, the United States announced that it had signed a tariff framework agreement with Vietnam under which U.S. import tariffs on Vietnamese goods will average around 20 percent, though certain products will be exempt.

Manufacturing remains the standout engine of growth: according to the Vietnam General Statistics Office, manufacturing output rose 9.92 percent year-on-year from January to September. However, growth in the construction and service sectors has slowed compared with the second quarter.

Meanwhile, India, once the fastest-growing major economy in Asia, is facing growing pressure from recent U.S. tariff measures. India’s merchandise exports fell 11.8 percent in October, and relations with Washington have been strained since the U.S. imposed 50 percent tariffs on Indian goods in August. The two sides have yet to reach an agreement.

The Reserve Bank of India forecasts GDP growth of 6.8 percent for fiscal year 2025–2026, while the Ministry of Finance projects 6.3–6.8 percent. With exports shrinking and imports rising, India’s trade deficit surged to a record US$41.68 billion in October, far higher than economists’ expectations of US$30 billion. In response, the Modi government has announced over US$5 billion in relief measures for exporters.

Separately, India’s state-owned oil company signed its first-ever procurement deal with the United States to import roughly 2.2 million tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) per year.

Source: Time Weekly, November 20, 2025
https://time-weekly.com/wap-article/325424

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

LTN: Taiwan-U.S. Tariff Agreement Nearing Finalization

Major Taiwanese outlet Liberty Times Network (LTN) recently reported, citing sources familiar with the matter, that the tariff agreement between Taiwan and the United States is expected to be announced soon. Taiwan’s investment commitments in the U.S. will reportedly fall between those of Japan and South Korea—potentially around US$400 billion—and include TSMC’s US$165 billion investment in Arizona. Taiwan is also expected to support the development of U.S.-based science parks modeled on those in Taiwan.

A U.S. official noted that, compared with the agreements reached with Japan and South Korea, Taiwan’s commitments are not vague pledges, but consist of investments that are already planned or even underway.

Notably, Wu Cheng-wen, chairman of Taiwan’s National Science Council, stressed that the United States will not impose high tariffs on Taiwan’s world-leading semiconductor sector. He said Taiwan will help the United States learn from Taiwan’s industrial ecosystem so that the U.S. can become a semiconductor manufacturing powerhouse. Taiwan has also reached an understanding with Washington that it will support the development of the U.S. chip industry in exchange for tariff reductions.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) did not respond to requests for comment.

Source: LTN, November 21, 2025
https://stock.ltn.com.tw/article/qw9xfss3k20f

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese Banks and State-Owned Platforms Accelerate Direct Property Sales Amid Market Downturn

China’s real estate supply has expanded beyond traditional developers and second-hand homeowners to include banks, corporations, listed companies, and government platforms, reflecting the mounting pressure of a slowing market.

Several major banks, including Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications, are selling repossessed properties directly online through the “bank direct supply” model, sometimes at 30 percent of market value, bypassing the lengthy traditional auction process. Banks often negotiate directly with defaulted borrowers and enlist intermediaries to manage the sales.

State-owned platforms have also significantly increased property listings this year, spanning residential units, shops, offices, and parking spaces, often priced well below market value. Notable examples include Tianheng Real Estate in Beijing (111 units), Jilin Bank (over 2,000 units), and China General Nuclear Engineering Co. in Dalian (68 units).

This trend underscores how banks and state-owned entities are actively pushing distressed or idle properties into the market to boost liquidity and mitigate losses amid the ongoing housing downturn.

Sources:
1. Epoch Times, November 17, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/25/11/17/n14637251.htm
2. Epoch Times, November 19, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/25/11/19/n14638962.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Study: China’s Cross-Border Lending Is Shifting Toward Developed Countries – the U.S. Is Borrowing the Most

A new study by AidData, the research lab at the College of William & Mary, finds that China is undergoing a major strategic shift in its overseas lending. Over the past two decades, China’s outbound credit has moved away from low-income and developing countries and toward middle- and high-income economies. The share of Chinese cross-border lending going to low-income countries fell from 88 percent in 2000 to just 12 percent in 2023, while lending to wealthier countries surged to about 76 percent.

Strikingly, the United States is now the largest recipient of Chinese credit, receiving more than $200 billion across over 2,500 projects spread throughout all U.S. states.

The study notes that many of these loans are tied to strategic, not purely commercial, objectives – particularly in high-tech industries, critical minerals, and infrastructure. China’s state-backed financial institutions frequently fund overseas acquisitions by Chinese companies in sectors such as semiconductors, robotics, and biotechnology. This marks a shift from traditional development finance toward lending that directly supports China’s industrial and strategic ambitions.

Analysts say the report raises broader questions about the nature of China’s cross-border financing and its implications for global competition, technology governance, and national-security risk. They caution that China’s “credit pivot” toward richer countries may reshape the landscape of international development finance and heighten concerns among borrowing states.

Source: Deutsche Welle, November 19, 2025
https://www.dw.com/zh/研究中国跨境信贷转向发达国家-美国借的最多/a-74793625

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese Tourists Shift from Japan to South Korea Amid Diplomatic Tensions

Beijing’s response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent remarks about Taiwan have escalated tensions between China and Japan, with Chinese authorities advising citizens against traveling to Japan. The impact on tourism has been swift and significant, with travel platform data revealing a dramatic reshuffling of popular outbound destinations.

Following the government’s advisory, major Chinese travel companies report that tourists have begun canceling and modifying their Japan travel plans over the past two days. Travel agencies are actively coordinating with hotels to arrange penalty-free cancellations. A representative from a major travel enterprise indicated that all promotional content related to Japan tourism has been removed from their platforms, and they anticipate declining prices for flights and hotels to Japan in the coming period.

Japan has traditionally been the top choice for Chinese outbound travelers. However, industry insiders now estimate that Japan will drop out of the top ten popular destinations during the upcoming New Year and Lunar New Year holiday periods. One consumer interviewed explained that after preparing for a year-end Japan trip—including visa applications, flight bookings, and hotel selections—they canceled everything and switched to Southeast Asian destinations including Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Data from Chinese travel platform Qunar shows that South Korea has surged to become the most popular outbound destination based on international flight bookings between November 15-16, with Seoul being the most searched city. Flight bookings to Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Indonesia have also increased substantially.

According to Japan National Tourism Organization statistics, Chinese visitors to Japan totaled 6.98 million in 2024, representing a 187.9 percent increase, and accounted for approximately 20-25 percent of all visitors. Japanese industry observers believe the sharp decline in Chinese tourists will significantly impact Japan’s tourism, retail, and consumer sectors.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 18, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202511180197.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China Studies Drone Swarms to Counter Starlink in Potential Taiwan Conflict

Chinese military researchers are investigating how to effectively disrupt Starlink satellite communications in Taiwan during a potential conflict, requiring at least 1,000 to 2,000 drone-mounted jamming devices to suppress the system, according to a report by Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post.

The urgency stems from Ukraine’s battlefield success with Starlink following Russia’s February 2022 invasion. After Elon Musk’s SpaceX provided thousands of Starlink terminals to Kyiv within days, Russian forces initially managed to jam the signals. However, SpaceX quietly updated its software and satellite configurations, rendering Russian jamming ineffective and shifting battlefield advantage to Ukraine. This success shocked military establishments worldwide, particularly China’s.

Chinese military authorities subsequently began assessing how to conduct effective electronic warfare if Taiwan obtained Starlink access during a conflict. Research teams from Zhejiang University and Beijing Institute of Technology, which maintains close ties with China’s military, published the most comprehensive public analysis to date in early November in the journal Systems Engineering and Electronics.

The study concluded that traditional ground-based jamming methods are insufficient against Starlink’s large low-orbit satellite constellation and advanced communication technologies, including frequency hopping and adaptive systems. Computer simulations indicate China would need a “distributed jamming” strategy deploying hundreds or thousands of small, synchronized airborne jammers carried by drones, balloons, or aircraft to create an electromagnetic barrier.

Under optimal conditions, each jamming device could suppress Starlink connectivity across approximately 38.5 square kilometers. Given Taiwan’s roughly 36,000 square kilometers, fully suppressing coverage would require at least 935 synchronized devices on drones or balloons. Lower-powered equipment would necessitate approximately 2,000 units.

Researchers acknowledged these figures don’t account for terrain interference, equipment attrition, or Starlink’s continuously improving anti-jamming capabilities, meaning actual requirements could be considerably higher. They emphasized that since many of Starlink’s core technologies remain classified, their simulation data represents only preliminary assessments.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 23, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202511230163.aspx

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Japan-China-South Korea Summit in Jeopardy After Taiwan Remarks

Japan’s proposal to hold a trilateral summit with China and South Korea in January has been rejected by China, casting uncertainty over the future of the meeting. The impasse stems from Chinese anger over remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan, according to diplomatic sources who revealed the information on November 22.

During a House of Representatives Budget Committee meeting on November 7, Takaichi stated that a Taiwan contingency “could constitute an existential crisis situation.” The comment triggered a sharp deterioration in Japan-China relations. China responded by advising its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan, suspending import procedures for Japanese seafood products, and informing South Korea that a planned trilateral culture ministers’ meeting scheduled for November 24 would be postponed. Through diplomatic channels, China has reportedly communicated to relevant countries that Japan’s prime minister failed to handle the situation appropriately, making a summit meeting impossible.

The three nations’ foreign ministers had met in Tokyo in March and agreed to hold a leaders’ summit at an appropriate time. Japan, serving as the rotating chair, quietly sought China and South Korea’s agreement for a January meeting after determining that domestic parliamentary schedules made a gathering this year difficult. However, China’s refusal has left the timing unclear.

If realized, the summit would have brought Chinese Premier Li Qiang to Japan, potentially serving as an opportunity to normalize relations. Japan hopes to arrange the meeting as soon as possible after February, though scheduling faces challenges due to China’s Spring Festival in February and the customary National People’s Congress in March. The impact of Takaichi’s remarks has extended beyond bilateral relations to affect the entire trilateral cooperation framework.

Source: Kyodo News, November 22, 2025
https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2025/11/2e34550afdca-1.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend