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Geo-Strategic Trend

New Zealand and Cook Islands Sign Defense Pact Amid Concerns Over China Ties

On April 2, New Zealand and the Cook Islands signed a new defense and security agreement aimed at repairing bilateral tensions following the Cook Islands’ growing engagement with China. The agreement establishes clearer consultation mechanisms on defense and security matters, requiring the Cook Islands to consult New Zealand before engaging with other partners in these areas. It also reaffirms New Zealand’s access to the Cook Islands for defense purposes.

In return, New Zealand pledged to remain the Cook Islands’ primary defense and security partner and to strengthen bilateral cooperation, including restoring approximately NZ$29.8 million (US$17 million) in annual financial assistance. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said the agreement clarifies political commitments and reduces ambiguity in the two countries’ unique constitutional relationship, which is based on “free association.”

Tensions between the two sides had intensified since late 2024, driven in part by policy differences and the Cook Islands’ closer ties with China, including a 2025 agreement on seabed resource exploration and cooperation in infrastructure and transport. While the Cook Islands maintained that the deal did not involve defense matters, it raised concerns among New Zealand, United States, and Australia.

New Zealand said the agreement would ensure greater transparency and help prevent similar situations, such as the recent China-related agreement, from occurring without prior consultation.

Source: Epoch Times, April 2, 2026
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/26/4/2/n14733013.htm

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India’s New Certification Rules Block Chinese Surveillance Equipment

Reports from Indian media indicate that India will implement a “soft ban” on Chinese surveillance equipment starting April 1. Under the new rules, all surveillance products sold in India must pass security certification under the STQC (Standardization Testing and Quality Certification) framework. Industry sources say devices using Chinese chipsets are unlikely to receive approval, effectively freezing sales of major Chinese brands such as Hikvision and Dahua, which have long held a significant share of the Indian market.

Rather than issuing a direct ban, India is using technical regulations to restrict market access. The new requirements mandate vulnerability testing and disclosure of key components, particularly the country of origin of system-on-chip (SoC) components. According to industry reports, authorities are effectively denying certification to products that rely on Chinese chips. Since leading Chinese brands depend heavily on such supply chains, the policy cuts off their ability to comply with the new standards.

The rules were introduced in April 2024 with a two-year transition period, Chinese companies have tried but been unable to obtain certification. As the April 1 deadline approaches, uncertified products will lose market access. The policy has already begun reshaping the market: Chinese brands, which previously accounted for roughly one-third of market share, are seeing a sharp decline, while Indian manufacturers—using non-Chinese components and localized systems—are rapidly expanding their presence. While the government frames the move as a cybersecurity measure, industry observers widely view it as a form of industrial protection under the “Make in India” initiative.

Source: Net Ease, March 31, 2026
https://www.163.com/dy/article/KPA33EMI05563S5U.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

U.S. Ambassador to Canada Issued Threatening Statements on Chinese EVs Imports

Shanghai-based Chinese online news site Guancha recently reported that In January of this year, Canada announced a policy adjustment, allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter its market annually with preferential tariffs. The U.S., after its efforts to pressure Canada with both soft and hard tactics failed, has resorted to a new round of threats.

In a recent interview, U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra stated that the United States will not allow Chinese electric vehicles from Canada to enter its market. Citing so-called “security concerns related to the collection and transmission of data from vehicles,” Hoekstra claimed, “These vehicles can be exported from China to Canada, but there is absolutely no way they will cross the border into the United States, and that will never happen.” He added, “We will not open the floodgates for Chinese cars to pour into the United States from Canada.”

In January of last year, on the eve of his departure from office, the Biden administration in the United States introduced so-called “protective measures” that banned the import and sale of connected cars and key components containing Chinese and Russian technologies, and planned to impose bans on related software and hardware in 2027 and 2030, respectively. China has expressed its strong condemnation and opposition to this.

Most Canadian-made cars contain a significant number of parts manufactured in the United States. “Cars sold across borders contain 50 percent, 75 percent, of American parts. That’s the type of car we’re happy to import,” Hoekstra suggested.

Source: Guancha, March 31, 2026
https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2026_03_31_811983.shtml

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Middle East Tensions Disrupt Supply Chains, Raising Costs for China’s High-Tech Industries

Escalating tensions in the Middle East are increasing risks to energy supplies, with spillover effects reaching China’s manufacturing sector. While China’s power system—largely reliant on coal—can maintain basic electricity stability, key industries such as petrochemicals, synthetic fibers, and semiconductors remain heavily dependent on oil and liquefied natural gas from the region.

Chinese companies are already experiencing ripple effects. BYD has warned that rising prices for electrolyte solvents and battery separator chemicals could increase per-vehicle costs by 3,000–5,000 yuan (US$440–730) in the second quarter. CATL is accelerating domestic lithium mining and recycling efforts while adjusting logistics to reduce maritime risks. Huawei is reportedly implementing price-protection measures for some products, SMIC is facing pressure on supplies of advanced semiconductor materials, and Xiaomi has issued warnings of potential product shortages due to raw material constraints.

The core supply shock stems from shortages of petrochemical feedstocks. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have reduced Asia’s naphtha supply by about 40 percent, driving up prices of upstream chemicals such as phenol and acetone by 28 percent in mid-March. This, in turn, is increasing costs for semiconductor packaging and PCB production. Several PCB manufacturers have raised prices by 12–15 percent, while shortages of engineering plastics such as polycarbonate and polyamide have forced some suppliers to suspend deliveries. With Brent crude prices exceeding $115 per barrel and competition for energy resources intensifying, analysts warn that if supply constraints persist, global electronics prices could rise in the second quarter of 2026.

Source: Creaders.Net, March 25, 2026
https://news.creaders.net/china/2026/03/25/2985695.html

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People’s Daily: Spain Not Alone in Upholding a “No War” Stance

People’s Daily published a commentary praising Spain for not supporting the United States in the Iran conflict.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez recently drew international attention with his opposition to the conflict amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. He emphasized respect for international law, rejected the use of force, and called for diplomatic solutions, stating that Spain’s position is “clear and consistent”—to avoid war. While some Western media described Spain as “a lonely country” within Europe, Sánchez responded that Spain is not lonely, just the first.

The article compares this situation to 2024, when Spain, along with Ireland and Norway, was among the first European countries to recognize Palestine. At the time, the move was also described as risky and isolating. However, several European countries later followed, including France and Belgium, suggesting that what initially appeared as isolation was instead a matter of timing in political consensus.

It also notes that although other European countries have not openly endorsed Spain’s position, few have explicitly supported U.S. and Israeli military actions either. Many countries—including the United Kingdom, France, and Portugal—have emphasized diplomacy and de-escalation, reflecting a shift in transatlantic dynamics. The article attributes this change in part to growing European concerns over U.S. “America First” policies and past experiences with prolonged conflicts that proved difficult to resolve.

Source: People’s Daily, March 20, 2026
https://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/pc/content/202603/20/content_30146207.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

China Expands Fleet of Zubr-Class Hovercraft to Boost Amphibious Capabilities

The Zubr-class (known in China as Type 728, NATO reporting name: Pomornik-class) air-cushion landing craft is a large hovercraft designed by the Soviet Union in the late Cold War period, reflecting a focus on large-scale military transport. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine modified the design for export. In 2009, China signed a $315 million agreement with Ukraine to acquire four vessels—two built in Ukraine and two assembled in China from kits—along with the transfer of production technology. By 2017, Chinese defense firms had reportedly overcome key technical barriers and begun domestic production. In 2023, reports indicated that domestically built Zubr-class vessels had entered service with the PLA Navy’s Eastern Theater Command. China is believed to have produced at least five such vessels on its own and plans to further expand to 10–12 units, surpassing Russia (2 vessels) and Greece (4 vessels) to become the largest operator of this class.

The Zubr-class landing craft measures approximately 57 meters in length and has a full-load displacement of about 555 tons, making it the largest hovercraft in the world. Each vessel can carry up to 500 fully equipped troops, or three main battle tanks (MBTs), or ten light armored vehicles (AFVs) along with 230 troops. With a top speed exceeding 55 knots (about 102 km/h), it can rapidly deploy forces directly onto beaches that are inaccessible to conventional landing craft. Compared with traditional amphibious vessels, the Zubr-class is less vulnerable to certain types of naval mines and is capable of making multiple crossings of the Taiwan Strait within a single day, offering high mobility and strong assault capabilities.

This development suggests that China is continuing to expand its amphibious assault capabilities, with potential implications for future operations in areas such as the Taiwan Strait.

Source: Newtalk, March 30, 2026
https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2026-03-30/1027092

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

LTN: Freedom House Released Its Latest Annual Assessment

Major Taiwanese news network Liberty Times Network (LTN) recently reported that, well-known U.S. think tank Freedom House recently released its new “Freedom in the World 2026” report, themed “The Growing Shadow of Autocracy.” The report shows that global freedom has declined for the 20th consecutive year, with political rights and civil liberties fell in 54 countries in 2025.

Among the three “Grand China” regions, Hong Kong is classified as “partially free,” mainland China and Tibet maintain their “not free” rating, while Taiwan continues to hold its “free” status.

The overall rating for mainland China remains at 9 points. The “political rights” category received a score of -2.

Hong Kong scored 0 points in all three indicators of “freedom and fairness of elections”. The “media freedom” index scored only 1 point. Since 2005, Hong Kong’s freedom index has fallen by a cumulative 26 points, ranking it among the top in the world in terms of decline, alongside Guinea-Bissau in West Africa.

Taiwan was rated as a “free” region with a score of 93, ranking second in Asia only after Japan (96 points).

Finland is the only country to receive a perfect score of 100. Although the United States is still listed as a “free” country, its score has slipped to 81, the lowest score since the report was first published in 1972.

Source: LTN, March 19, 2026
https://stock.ltn.com.tw/article/zm4tvcnnpdcg

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Poll Shows 94.4 Percent of Taiwanese Refuse to Be Part of the Communist China

Taiwanese newspaper Business Today recently reported that the Taiwan Inspirational Association (TIA) just released the results of its public opinion poll. Public satisfaction with the government’s administration continued to rise to 57.6 percent, while dissatisfaction with the Legislative Yuan reached a high of 59.3 percent. On the issue of Taiwan’s future, if the factor of war is excluded, a high percentage of the public, 94.4 percent, support the Republic of China (Taiwan) maintaining its democratic, free, sovereign, and independent status quo, while only three percent hope to become part of communist China.

Over 60 percent of respondents supported the TWD$1.25 trillion (around US$39 billion) national defense special budget (primarily to acquire military equipment from the United States), and nearly 60 percent surveyed were satisfied with war preparedness.

The Legislative Yuan’s satisfaction rate was only 38.6 percent, while 59.3 percent expressed dissatisfaction, making it the worst-performing category in this poll. Partisan infighting is the primary cause.

In addition, the Taiwan-Japan security alliance received 60 percent approval.

Source: Business Today, March 24, 2026
https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/183027/post/202603240040/

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend