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Geo-Strategic Trend

China–Canada Tensions Rise Over Taiwan Issue Following Chinese Diplomat’s Remarks

On May 1, Canada’s Globe and Mail published an interview with Wang Di, China’s ambassador to Canada, who stated that the Taiwan issue constitutes a non-negotiable “red line” in China–Canada relations and that Ottawa must clearly articulate its position if bilateral ties are to advance. Wang criticized actions such as Canadian naval vessels transiting the Taiwan Strait and contacts between Canadian parliamentarians and Taiwanese officials, arguing that these violate the “One China” principle.

In response, Taiwan’s representative to Canada, Tseng Hou-jen, rejected Wang’s remarks in an interview with iPolitics, calling them “absurd” and counterproductive. Tseng argued that Wang’s statements reflect China’s tendency to “weaponize trade,” which could provoke backlash within Canadian political circles. He emphasized that the Taiwan Strait is an international waterway, not China’s internal waters, and that under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, all countries are entitled to freedom of navigation there.

Wang’s comments have drawn criticism from figures across Canada’s political and academic communities, who urged the government to uphold its principles in its engagement with Beijing. Those voicing concern include Senator Leo Housakos, Conservative deputy leader Melissa Lantsman, former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, and Vina Nadjibulla of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

The controversy comes amid efforts to revive bilateral ties following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s January visit to China, during which six agreements were signed to restart an eight-year-suspended “strategic partnership.” However, the visit also sparked domestic criticism after two Liberal lawmakers visiting Taiwan cut short their trip on government advice, with some politicians accusing Ottawa of yielding to pressure from Beijing.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), May 2, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202605020092.aspx

Despite Beijing’s Obstruction, Taiwan President Proceeds with State Visit to Eswatini

2026 marked the 58th anniversary of diplomatic ties between Taiwan and Eswatini. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te had planned to visit Eswatini from April 22 to 24 to attend celebrations marking King Mswati III’s 40th anniversary on the throne and his 58th birthday. However, the trip was disrupted after three countries—Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar—reportedly denied overflight permission for Taiwan’s presidential aircraft, allegedly under pressure from Beijing. Taiwan subsequently dispatched Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung as a special envoy, while the episode was viewed by Beijing as a diplomatic success.

In response, Taiwan and Eswatini coordinated an alternative arrangement. Eswatini sent its deputy prime minister to Taiwan aboard the king’s royal aircraft, reaffirming the close relationship between the two countries.

During the visit, the envoy formally invited Lai to travel to Eswatini using the royal aircraft, providing a workaround to the earlier flight restrictions. On May 2, Lai successfully arrived in Eswatini for an official state visit, reportedly catching Beijing off guard. He returned to Taiwan on May 5 aboard the same aircraft, flying over Mozambique, South Africa, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, accompanied by Eswatini’s deputy prime minister.

Sources:
1. Liberty Times (Taiwan), May 2, 2026
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/5423344
2. Lianhe Zaobao, May 5, 2026
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20260505-8999852

Xinhua: EU–Mercosur Free Trade Agreement Provisionally Enters into Force, Aiming to Reduce Dependence on the U.S.

Xinhua News Agency reported that a free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union and the Mercosur bloc provisionally entered into force on May 1, with the aim of diversifying the EU’s trade and reducing reliance on the United States. The deal, concluded after 25 years of negotiations and signed in January, is expected to eliminate billions of euros in tariffs and create a market of approximately 720 million people.

Xinhua’s report noted that U.S. President Trump’s tariff policies contributed to the agreement’s conclusion. The European Commission hopes the pact will help offset declining exports to the United States and mitigate potential impacts on gross domestic product (GDP).

Mercosur—comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and more recently Bolivia—will benefit from reduced tariffs and more predictable rules governing trade and investment. Ultimately, more than 90 percent of tariffs on bilateral trade are expected to be eliminated, facilitating exports such as European automobiles, machinery, and wine, as well as Mercosur products including meat, sugar, rice, and soybeans.

While the agreement has been approved by Mercosur member states, it remains controversial within the EU. Countries such as France have expressed opposition over concerns about the impact on domestic agriculture. The European Parliament has referred the agreement for legal review, and a final ruling by the EU’s top court could take up to two years.

Source: Xinhua, May 1, 2026
https://www.xinhuanet.com/20260501/49a9b9a632854b3bba49984469d5c3ea/c.html

PLA Daily: Japan Moves Beyond ‘Exclusively Defensive’ Policy, Expands Offensive Capabilities

People’s Daily has republished a commentary from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Daily asserting that Japan is moving beyond its long-standing “exclusively defensive” security posture and developing more offensive military capabilities:

On April 27, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated at a security policy review meeting that Japan must prepare for “new forms of warfare” and even “prolonged conflict.”

To this end, Japan is accelerating the development and deployment of longer-range strike capabilities. These include systems such as the Type 25 surface-to-ship missile, with an estimated range of around 1,000 kilometers, as well as hypersonic glide vehicles, with plans to extend strike ranges to approximately 2,000 kilometers. Japan is also acquiring U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles and Norway’s Joint Strike Missiles to equip its naval forces.

At the same time, Japan is undertaking a sweeping restructuring of its Self-Defense Forces. This includes what is described as the largest reorganization in the history of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, with the creation of a new “Surface Fleet” composed of three surface combat groups, alongside a patrol and defense group and an amphibious and mine warfare group. Japan is also expanding its space capabilities by upgrading its Space Operations Group to a Space Operations Regiment, with plans to further elevate it into a Space Operations Command. In parallel, it is establishing specialized intelligence units, reflecting a broader effort to modernize and strengthen its overall military structure and operational capacity.

Source: People’s Daily, April 30, 2026
http://military.people.com.cn/n1/2026/0430/c1011-40711778.html

Japan-China Tourism Collapses Amid Diplomatic Tensions

Japanese tourism to China has plummeted by as much as 90% following a sharp deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations triggered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks about a potential “Taiwan contingency.” The fallout has unleashed a triple blow on the travel industry: a dramatic reduction in flights, a sharp cooling of travel demand, and rising fuel costs driven by instability in the Middle East.

According to a report by Kyodo News, approximately 2,691 flights from China to Japan were cancelled in March alone, representing a cancellation rate of around 50 percent. One major Japanese travel agency reported that tour group cancellations to Shanghai surged to 50 percent after Takaichi’s comments in November last year, with the number of Japanese visitors to Shanghai falling 70 percent year-on-year by late last year.

Safety concerns have compounded the diplomatic chill. The 2024 stabbing attack on a school bus carrying students at a Japanese school in Suzhou, and the death of a Japanese schoolboy near a Japanese school in Shenzhen, have made many Japanese travelers wary of visiting China. The Chinese government also urged its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan in response to Takaichi’s statements, further straining bilateral tourism flows.

The collapse in visitor numbers has devastated Chinese tour guides who specialize in Japanese-speaking tourists. A guide in Xi’an with nearly 30 years of experience said he has not received a single Japanese client this year, while a Beijing-based guide reported that his income has fallen by 90 percent since March.

Industry insiders are pessimistic about a near-term recovery. Japan was once one of China’s top sources of inbound tourists, but experts warn that “as long as China-Japan relations do not improve and flight numbers do not increase, the Japanese tourism market to China will be difficult to recover in the short term.”

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), May 1, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202605010096.aspx

Retired Japanese Military Commander: Janpan’s Early Intervention Could Force China to Rethink Taiwan War Plans

Kiyoshi Ogawa, a former senior commander of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force and now a think tank researcher, said in a recent talk that Japan could intervene at an early stage of a Taiwan Strait conflict. Such early involvement, he argued, would significantly disrupt China’s assumed timeline and compel it to reassess its military plans for Taiwan.

According to his analysis, China’s approach to a Taiwan scenario can be broadly divided into three phases:

  1. A “peacetime” phase involving psychological operations, military exercises, and a blockade aimed at deterring foreign intervention;
  2. Escalation into active conflict, including missile strikes and cyberattacks;
  3. A full-scale amphibious invasion after achieving air and sea superiority.

In November last year, Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated in a parliamentary response that escalating tensions around Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. She noted circumstances a blockade of the Taiwan Strait could meet this threshold, “if Taiwan is subjected to a military attack, including a naval blockade carried out by warships in conjunction with other measures, it could be regarded as the use of force.”

China’s strategy is widely seen as relying on achieving a rapid victory before external forces—particularly the United States and Japan—can intervene. However, Japan’s position suggests that intervention could occur as early as the initial blockade phase, rather than in later stages of the conflict.

Such a shift would fundamentally alter China’s planning assumptions, potentially forcing a reassessment of its operational timeline and force deployment. Sanae Takaichi’ remarks are viewed as strategically significant and have drawn strong reactions from Beijing.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), April 27, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202604270115.aspx

Zimbabwe Makes History as Africa’s First Lithium Intermediate Exporter

Zimbabwe has taken a significant step in its ambition to capture greater value from its lithium resources. Chinese company Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt announced this week that it has shipped the first batch of lithium sulfate from its operations in the country, making Zimbabwe the first nation on the African continent to export this intermediate product to international markets.

The lithium sulfate was produced at a plant completed by Huayou’s local subsidiary, Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe, in October of last year, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons. The exact volume of the first shipment was not disclosed. Lithium sulfate can be further processed into lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, both of which are essential compounds for manufacturing electric vehicle batteries.

The announcement comes weeks after Zimbabwean authorities suspended exports of lithium concentrate, citing irregularities in the export process. The government has since been pushing for stricter local processing requirements, demanding that companies submit written commitments to establish lithium sulfate production lines before January 1, 2027. Until that deadline, a 10% export tax remains in effect, with a new concentrate export ban planned to follow.

As Africa’s largest lithium producer and China’s second-largest supplier, Zimbabwe is eager to derive more economic benefit from the sector. In 2025, the country’s spodumene concentrate exports grew nearly 12 percent, rising from 1.01 million tons to 1.13 million tons. However, falling prices meant export revenues dipped slightly, from $514.5 million to $513.8 million year-on-year.

Other Chinese operators, including Sinomine and Sichuan Yahua, are also accelerating lithium sulfate processing projects at the Bikita and Kamativi mines respectively. While lithium sulfate carries more value than raw concentrate, it still falls short of the final battery-grade products. Whether this momentum will translate into substantial economic gains for Zimbabwe, or serve merely as a stepping stone to higher-value processing, remains to be seen.

Source: Radio France International, May 1, 2026
https://rfi.my/Cf7b

China Extends Zero Tariffs to All African Diplomatic Partners

China’s Ministry of Finance has announced that the country will implement zero tariffs on imports from all 53 African nations with which it maintains diplomatic relations, effective May 1, 2026.

The policy was first announced by President Xi Jinping in a congratulatory message to the 39th African Union Summit on February 14, 2026, in which he declared that China would fully implement zero tariffs for all 53 diplomatically recognized African countries while continuing to pursue the signing of Joint Development Economic Partnership Agreements.

To put the measure into effect, China’s State Council Tariff Commission issued a formal notice specifying that from May 1, 2026 to April 30, 2028, zero tariffs will be extended to 20 African countries that have diplomatic ties with China but do not currently qualify as least-developed nations. These countries will receive the preferential rates in the form of a special tariff reduction. However, for products subject to tariff-rate quotas, only the within-quota rates will be reduced to zero, while rates on above-quota imports will remain unchanged. During this two-year implementation period, China said it will continue to push forward negotiations on Joint Development Economic Partnership Agreements with the relevant African countries.

The State Council Tariff Commission described the sweeping measure as a concrete step in China’s commitment to expanding high-level openness and broadening autonomous liberalization. Officials also framed it as a key initiative to deliver on the outcomes of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation and to strengthen what Beijing calls an “all-weather China-Africa community with a shared future.” The commission expressed confidence that the policy would inject significant momentum into China-Africa trade, investment cooperation, and broader African economic development.

Source: Sputnik News, April 29, 2026
https://sputniknews.cn/20260429/1071020254.html