The World Steel Association says China’s long-standing steel overcapacity problem is becoming increasingly difficult to resolve. Despite a prolonged property slump and weak domestic demand, China’s crude steel output has hovered near 1 billion tons a year for two decades. Sharp production cuts could have serious economic and employment consequences given steel’s central role in the economy.
High output has driven Chinese steelmakers to boost low-priced exports, pressuring producers in Europe, the United States, and Asia. Worldsteel expects China’s steel demand to decline further in 2025–26 without an economic rebound. In response, countries including Vietnam, Thailand, Mexico, Brazil, the EU, the U.S., and Canada have imposed or expanded anti-dumping and countervailing duties, with some tariffs reaching double-digit levels.
Domestic capacity-cut efforts are constrained by local governments’ reliance on steel for jobs and revenue. Although China is seeking new markets such as the Middle East, rising global trade barriers are narrowing export options, with some analysts forecasting China’s direct steel exports could fall by half within five years.
Source: Epoch Times, December 8, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/25/12/8/n14650989.htm