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Monthly Archives: May 2025

China’s Smartphone Exports to U.S. at Lowest Level Since 2011

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that, due to the tariff wars, shipments of Apple iPhones and other mobile devices from China to the U.S. fell in April to their lowest level since 2011. Customs data showed smartphone exports to the U.S. tumbled 72 percent in April to just under $700 million, far outstripping a 21 percent drop in China’s overall exports to the U.S. during the same period of time.

In the meantime, according to the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products (CCCME), in the first quarter of 2025, the United States imported US$42.572 million mobile phones, a year-over-year increase of 29.8 percent. Among them, 11.669 million were imported from India, a significant year-over-year increase of 181.7 percent. In the first quarter, India’s share of U.S. mobile phone imports increased to 27.4 percent from 12.6 percent in the same period last year.

Apple has been adjusting its supply chain capacity allocation based on expectations of U.S. tariffs. Apple is exporting key components from China to India and then exporting the final products to the United States after reprocessing, in order to reduce tariff losses. According to the statistics of China’s General Administration of Customs, China’s exports of mobile phone parts to India in the first quarter increased by 217.7 percent year-over-year to US$2.75 billion.

Sources:
(1) Lianhe Zaobao, May 20, 2025
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/world/story20250520-6431026
(2) CCCME, May 12, 2025
https://www.cccme.org.cn/news/details.aspx?id=06CB753EBD7ABD0B04903CE5CF03A586&classid=2ABB150247542E0E&xgid=F868932F64EB7AAF

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

Chinese Investment in Europe Surges Despite Trade Tensions

Despite ongoing trade friction between China and Europe, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the European Union and United Kingdom reached €10 billion in 2024, marking a remarkable 47% increase and the largest growth since 2016, according to a new report by research firm Rhodium Group.

The report, released on the 21st, reveals that Europe remains China’s primary investment destination, accounting for 53.2% of China’s total investment in high-income economies in 2024. This surge was driven by both greenfield investments—where foreign investors establish new operations from scratch—and stronger merger and acquisition activity.

Chinese greenfield investments in Europe totaled €5.9 billion, growing 21% year-over-year and reaching a historic high for the third consecutive year. Meanwhile, Chinese mergers and acquisitions in Europe soared 114% to €4.1 billion, contributing significantly to the overall investment boom.

The investment landscape has shifted dramatically across European countries. Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, which traditionally dominated Chinese investment flows, saw their combined share drop to just 20% in 2024, down 32 percentage points from the 2019-2023 average of 52%. This reflects a notable transformation in China’s European investment patterns.

Hungary emerged as the top destination for Chinese FDI, capturing 31% of total investments, largely due to capital-intensive greenfield projects. While Chinese electric vehicle investments in Europe have garnered attention, they remain relatively small compared to overall investment volumes.

Looking ahead, Chinese investment in Europe may continue growing in 2025, though the slowing pace of electric vehicle sector expansion could potentially dampen long-term investment prospects in the region.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), May 21, 2025https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202505210165.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Iraq Signs Major Oil and Energy Deal with Chinese Company

Russian state media outlet Sputnik News reported on May 22 that Iraq’s government has entered into a significant partnership with Chinese and local Iraqi firms to develop the country’s first comprehensive energy complex in southern Basra. The Basra Oil Company signed contracts with Hilal Basra and China Continental Oil & Gas Co. Ltd. to establish an integrated project encompassing refinery, petrochemical, and power generation facilities.

Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani described the initiative as “a qualitative leap in developing the nation’s oil treasures and supporting the national economy.” The ambitious project aims to dramatically expand the Tuba oil field’s production capacity from 20,000 barrels per day to 100,000 barrels daily.

The development plans include constructing a high-quality refinery with a capacity of 200,000 barrels, a petrochemical plant producing 620,000 tons annually, and a fertilizer factory with an annual output of 520,000 tons. The energy infrastructure component features two power stations: a 650-megawatt thermal power plant whose surplus electricity will supply the national grid, and a 400-megawatt solar power facility.

This deal reflects broader trends in Chinese investment patterns in strategic regions. Separately, Hungary has emerged as China’s largest European investment destination, accounting for 31% of China’s total direct investment in Europe, primarily driven by capital-intensive greenfield projects.

While Chinese electric vehicle investments in Europe have garnered attention, they represent a relatively small portion of overall Chinese direct investment in the continent. Although China’s European investment is expected to grow in 2025, the slowing pace of electric vehicle expansion may impact long-term investment prospects in the region.

The Iraqi project represents a significant step in the country’s efforts to modernize its energy sector and diversify its economic partnerships.

Source: Sputnik News, May 22, 2025
https://sputniknews.cn/20250522/1065623403.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Top CCP Advisor Jin Canrong Pushes for “Firm Stance” in Trade Talks with U.S.

Jin Canrong is a Chinese political scientist and expert on U.S. affairs. He is the Vice Dean and Professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China. He has previously provided advice to senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership and is often referred to as a “national advisor” to the CCP.

Recently, Jin’s recommendations on China-U.S. trade tariff negotiations have been circulating on China’s internet:

“In China-U.S. economic and trade consultations, we must uphold our principles and not make concessions lightly. In this round of tariff negotiations, the U.S. delegation is not being led by Commerce Secretary Lutnick or trade advisor Navarro, but rather by Treasury Secretary Bessent. Bessent represents Wall Street interests, and we must remain highly vigilant. (This implies) that the U.S. has a major goal beyond just selling goods to us – they want us to open our capital markets and allow free capital flows. This is America’s strength, not ours. We must hold the line firmly: only talk tariffs when discussing tariffs, and only talk trade when discussing trade – the capital market is off-limits.

“Furthermore, the U.S. must cancel the tariffs it imposed on small Chinese packages valued under $800. This is a non-negotiable position.

“Additionally, although we mentioned in the joint statement that we would pause or cancel non-tariff countermeasures imposed since April 2, the interpretation, the pause, or cancellation must be on our terms. We have the right to play the ‘rare earth card’ wisely. Our commitment to pause or cancel non-tariff barriers since April 2 can occur simultaneously with strengthened controls over rare earth exports.

“In summary, the China-U.S. tariff war is complex and ever-changing. Although this round of negotiations has yielded substantive progress, the road ahead remains full of challenges and uncertainties.”

Source: Sohu, May 14, 2025
https://www.sohu.com/a/894694877_121287511

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources US-China Relations

RFA: China’s National Bureau of Statistics Reveals Fraud by Province-Level Governments

Radio Free Asia (RFA) recently reported that, China’s National Bureau of Statistics just announced that statistical fraud has been uncovered in the figures reported by the local governments of seven Chinese provinces and cities, including Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. China’s economy is in a downturn, but in recent years China’s GDP growth rate has been recorded at five percent each year, arousing suspicion that the data have been “inflated”.

As the Chinese central government calls for economic growth to reach a target rate of five percent annually, regional government officials are under tremendous pressure to perform.

Since late November last year, the National Bureau of Statistics of China has set up ten inspection teams to carry out statistical inspections in seven provinces, including Shanxi, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hainan, Chongqing and Ningxia, and three State Council ministries, including the Ministry of Science and Technology, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the State Administration of Finance. The inspections found “the relevant regions still have problems such as interfering with data reporting, and instructing statistical survey subjects to provide false information.”

Analysts cited by Radio Free Asia (RFA) stated that, for at least a decade, China’s economic growth story has been little more than a “triumph of propaganda.” Whether it is China’s GDP figures, reported economic growth, or data on deflation and population, China’s official statistics have been inflated. For example, in January of 2024, Henan Province revised down its previous year GDP by more than RMB 310 billion (around US$43 billion), which changed its economic growth rate from a decline of 3.6 percent to a growth of 4.1 percent.

Source: RFA, May 22, 2025
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/shangye/jingji/2025/05/22/china-growth-statistics-fraud/

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

Beijing Revises Austerity Rules for Government Agencies Amid Economic Weakness

China has revised its regulations on government frugality and waste prevention, originally established in October 2013, with the updated version published on May 18. The new rules require all party and government agencies nationwide to “maintain strict frugality and lead by example in living frugally,” redirecting more funds toward “development needs and public welfare.”

According to Xinhua News Agency, the revised regulations were approved on May 2 and have been officially released nationwide, containing 11 chapters and 63 articles. The Chinese Communist Party Central Committee and State Council jointly issued a notice requiring all regions and departments to “strictly comply” with the updated regulations.

The notice states that the revised regulations modernize rules governing government spending, domestic travel, overseas business trips, official receptions, government vehicles, meetings, office space, and resource conservation. The changes strengthen accountability for practicing frugality and opposing extravagance, further tightening institutional controls on government belt-tightening.

The new regulations emphasize several key principles:

  • maintaining strict frugality while conducting all undertakings economically,
  • reducing costs of official activities, and
  • reallocating funds to development and public welfare needs.

The regulations also stress improving efficiency through scientific resource allocation, strict expenditure control, and enhanced performance evaluation of cost-saving measures.

The regulations mandate transparency in government spending, requiring public disclosure of the use of public funds, assets, and resources in official activities, except for matters involving state secrets. Central government departments must “lead by example” in practicing frugality and opposing waste.

“Leadership at all levels must establish correct performance standards and lead by example, strictly prohibiting costly ‘image projects’ and ‘vanity projects’ that burden the people, while preventing major policy mistakes that cause serious waste.”

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), May 18, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202505180213.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Chinese Media Boasts that Chinese-Made J-10CE Fighter Jets Shot Down French Rafales Jets in India-Pakistan Aerial Fight

On May 7, Indian and Pakistani fighter jets battled for over an hour. Pakistan claimed that it shot down 3 French-made Rafale jets as well as a Mig-29, and a Su-30MKI. Pakistan’s main fighter jets in the battle were China’s J-10CE.

On May 17, a China Central Television (CCTV) program reported that China’s export-oriented fighter jet, the J-10CE, had recently achieved its first real combat success, shooting down multiple enemy aircraft in an air battle without sustaining any losses.

Military expert Zhang Xuefeng mentioned in the CCTV program that the Rafale fighter jet has a smaller nose cone, which limits the size of the radar it can carry and the number of transceiver modules, resulting in shorter detection range. Rafale’s missiles also lack range superiority. Therefore, even in a one-on-one scenario, the J-10CE has an advantage over Rafale.

Zhang further explained that the J-10 series fighter jet has an excellent base design, using a canard aerodynamic layout that provides high maneuverability. The J-10CE has been upgraded and now boasts three major advantages:

  1. Reduced Radar Cross-Section (RCS): The J-10CE has incorporated multiple RCS-reduction measures. The canopy has a special coating, it uses a diverterless supersonic inlet (DSI), and the radar antenna is angled. These combined features reduce the radar signature by an order of magnitude.
  2. Advanced Avionics: The J-10CE is equipped with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. China has been continuously improving its AESA radar technology in detection range and electronic counter-countermeasures, allowing it to reliably lock onto and strike targets with first-look, first-shoot advantage.
  3. Advanced Missile Systems: The missiles carried by the J-10CE are also state-of-the-art, enabling the fighter to detect, track, and engage enemy aircraft before being detected itself.

Sources:
1. YouTube, (CCTV’s video)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmwAyDrQOSU
2. Net Ease, May 18, 2025 (Transcript of CCTV’s report)
https://www.163.com/dy/article/JVRFAU170530G3Q7.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Brazil’s First Lady Criticizes TikTok in Front of Xi Jinping

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his wife, Janja Lula da Silva, recently led a delegation of several Brazilian ministers and members of parliament on a visit to China, during which the two countries signed as many as 36 agreements.

According to reports from Radio France International and Brazilian media Folha de São Paulo, during an official banquet in Beijing, Janja directly pointed out – while speaking in front of Xi Jinping – that the Chinese short video platform TikTok may have harmful effects on women and children.

After the news was leaked, Lula explained, at a press meeting, that he had asked “Comrade Xi Jinping” whether he could send a trusted representative to Brazil so the two sides could discuss digital issues, “especially TikTok.” Janja then requested to speak and explained what was happening in Brazil, particularly regarding concerns related to women and children. Xi Jinping responded that Brazil has the right to regulate its own social media platforms. Lula emphasized that Brazil “cannot allow social media to keep committing absurdities without us having the ability to regulate them.”

Janja’s remarks reportedly displeased the Chinese side. A Chinese minister is believed to have expressed dissatisfaction immediately after her comments.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), May 18, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202505180178.aspx

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend