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Chinese Think Tank Expert: Census Data in China Is Seriously Flawed

Duowei News carried an article about its interview of Huang Wenzhen, a senior think tank research fellow with the Center for China and Globalization. The article quoted a statement that Huang made during the interview. Huang stated that there is a serious flaw with China’s census data which has misled China’s family planning policy. According to Huang, the census data indicated that, in 2000, the birth rate in China had declined to 1.23 which was the lowest level in the world. Huang said that since the officials did not believe that number, they artificially raised the number to 1.8 which has been the official birth rate for the ten years from 2000 to 2010. He projected that the new born population will decrease by 500,000 to 800,000 each year over the next ten years and will incur a sharp decrease starting in 2030. Huang expressed concern about the economic impact that the decline in the population would have because he believes the Chinese population is the biggest advantage the country has in building up GDP. He proposed that people be held accountable since the census data in China has been “distorted” and “mixed up” for many years.

According to Duowei, the statement that Huang made contradicts what Wang Peian, the Vice Minister of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, said during the press conference that the National People’s Congress held on March 11. Wang stated that China will not face a population shortage in the next one hundred years and China will reach a peak of 1.45 billion in population by 2030.

Source: Duowei News, March 11, 2017