On April 13, the World Journal published an article citing comments on U.S. action in North Korea. Zhang Liankui, a professor at the Institute of International Strategic Studies of the Central Communist Party School, pointed out that, between now and the end of April, the U.S. is likely to use force to solve the North Korea problem. He listed three situations in which the U.S. might take action: one, North Korea conducts its sixth nuclear test; two, North Korea fires ballistic missiles; three, North Korea has an internal shakeout as a result of the U.S. pressure.
“In the first two situations, since the Carl Vinson aircraft carrier combat group is headed to the Korean peninsula, if North Korea conducts a nuclear test or fires a ballistic missile, Trump will look bad if the U.S. does not take action. The U.S. and South Korea will conduct a joint military exercise with live ammunition until the end of April, so it will be easy to carry out a real military action. After this period, it will not be as easy to re-mobilize the military.”
“Zhang pointed out that the U.S. has long prepared the military. Trump just needs an excuse. If Kim Jong-un misreads the situation and continues taking action, he could trigger a U.S. action to use force.”
April is a “high-risk period” since it has several important dates for North Korea. The next one is April 25th, the Army Day.
Yuan Zongze, Vice President of the China Institute of International Studies, said on April 12, “China does not want to see turmoil in Northeast Asia. Beijing’s bottom line is not to have war or turmoil at its door.”
Source: World Journal, April 13, 2017