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China’s Population Sees the Slowest Growth in Decades

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total population in mainland China, excluding foreigners, was 1.41 billion people as of the end of 2021, an increase of 480,000 people compared to 2020.

There were 10.62 million newborns and 10.14 million deaths. The natural population growth rate was therefore 0.034 percent for 2021.

Analysts in China observed that the number of newborns in China in 2021 was the lowest since 1949, and the birth rate was the lowest on record.

A moderate forecast for the future trend of China’s population assumes China spends 1 to 3 percent of its annual GDP on incentivizing women to have more children, which is the average spending rate of developed countries. In that case, China’s newborns will drop to below 10 million in the next two or three years, down to 773,000 in 2050 and 306,000 in 2100. Currently, China’s newborns are half that of India. The rate will be one-third of India’s by 2050 and less than one-quarter of India’s by 2100. According to this moderate forecast, China’s newborns will be overtaken by the United States in 2083 and will be two-thirds of the United States in 2100. While China’s total population is more than four times that of the United States, the number of newborns will be overtaken by the United States in two generations, showing the population’s rapid depletion.

China National Bureau of Statistics, January 17, 2022, January 17, 2022
Caixin, December 14, 2021