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Four Uncertainties in China’s Economy

According to a commentary in Beijing Times, China should be on guard for four uncertainties in its economy. The first uncertainty is whether China can continue to rely on the investment model of the high speed rail. “Presently the Ministry of Railways is under tremendous pressure due to high debts and low passenger usage. In the event that (this type of) investment is significantly scaled back and this engine is lost, can China maintain a high growth economy?” The second uncertainty comes from mid-size to small businesses which are the life blood of China’s economy. The third uncertainty is whether inflation control is effective. It is anticipated that the inflation rate will be as high as 6.7% for July. The fourth uncertainty is the large reduction in the GDP growth rates for Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other cities, which may be a sign of a slowdown of China’s GDP.

Source: BeijingTimes, August 9, 2011