According to the Beijing-based media, Caixin, Wang Tao, the chief China economist at the UBS global management firm, predicted that 2015 would see a further decline in China’s real estate market. As a result of fundamental changes in supply and demand patterns that have occurred, even if Chinese decision-makers were to relax government policies, it would hardly change the downward trend.
Although the "Golden September and Silver October," representing the traditional sales season for real estate, are approaching, analysts are not optimistic and believe that sales and new starts will continue to drop sharply towards the end of this year and into 2015. For 2015, Wang Tao expects that real estate sales will likely decline by another five to 10 percent. New housing starts may fall another 10 percent. It is not a matter of another cyclical downturn but the result of fundamental changes in the patterns of supply and demand. Therefore, it is unlikely that any government measures to boost the market would be effective.
Source: caixin.com, August 26, 2014
http://economy.caixin.com/2014-08-26/100721225.html