Skip to content

All posts by TGS

Chinese Scholar: Deflation is Here

According to Liu Yuhui, a Professor at the Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s economy has fallen into recession.

“In a word, the current economic situation in China is that deflation has begun, and the economy has fallen into the recession,” Liu wrote in an article published recently. The following summarizes his view on the issue of debts.

In the previous 15 months, China’s M2 has increased by more than 40 trillion. But it has not stopped the economy from sliding into deflation.

There are 1.4 billion people in China. According to the statistics of China’s central bank, 700 million people are now in debt. If children and older people are excluded, almost everyone in the country is in debt.

The total debt of the household sector accounts for as much as 137.9 percent of its disposable income, and the debt ratio of American households is about 90 percent in the same period. There is a more than 40 percentage points gap between China and the United States.

The ability of households to pay is constrained significantly. The annual interest payment accounts for nearly 15% of disposable income to cope with such debts. In the same period in the United States, this figure was 7%. From January to February 2023, the total amount of credit in China’s household sector was only 290 billion, less than 300 billion.

The high debt ratio of 137.9 percent today is much worse than the below 80 percent in 2015. This radio doubled in seven years. As a result, the ability and willingness to spend and borrow in the entire economy are rapidly collapsing.

Liu believed a breakthrough leading to China’s economic recovery in 2023 is indeed difficult.

Source: iNewsDB, April 12, 2023

Chinese Schools and Kindergartens Close Down as Birth Rate Drops

China’s Primary Schools Dropped by 80,000 in 10 Years. According to data recently released by China’s Ministry of Education, there were 149,100 primary schools in 2022, compared to 229,000 in 2012, a decline of 79,900 or 35 percent.

The chances of any improvement seem slim. In 2022, there were 289,200 kindergartens in China, a decrease of about 5,600 compared with the previous year.

Behind the decline in the number of kindergartens and primary schools in China is the sharp drop in the number of newborns.

According to data released by the CCP this year, there were 9.56 million newborns in China in 2022, with a birth rate of only 6.77‰ and a natural growth rate of -0.60 percent. This is the first time since 1950 that the annual birth population has fallen below 10 million. CCP data show that China had 10.62 million newborns in 2021, 12.02 million in 2020, and 14.65 million in 2019.

According to the “China Statistical Yearbook 2022,” 13 of the 31 provinces and municipalities directly under the Chinese central government had negative population growth, namely: Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, and Sichuan.

Analysts observed that China has a history of not releasing actual figures, but one can see a trend from the statistics it does release.

Source: Epoch Times, April 5, 2023

China’s People’s War to Be Used against Taiwan

From PLA Daily: China’s People’s War to Be Used against Taiwan:

China’s military newspaper published an article advocating that Mao Zedong’s people’s war should be applied  to and used against Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army Daily (PLA Daily) ‘s article of March 30, 2023, is viewed as a sign that Beijing has included both military and political considerations in its military reunification efforts against Taiwan.

The article stated that the people’s war is a strategy and it is also the method used in a just war for national independence, for the people’s liberation, and for national prosperity. It also generally adheres to the fundamental principle of defensiveness.

The article said that the integrity of the strategy and tactics of the people’s war emphasizes both military and non-military means leveraging each other as one holistic strategy of politics, economy, diplomacy, public opinion, and military forces.

The article expressed that the people’s war requires the mobilization of the whole country to overcome local deficiencies and disadvantages so as to defeat this “powerful opponent.”

The article also said that active defense is a product of the people’s war and it is also the fundamental requirement to carry out the war of justice effectively.

The article further stated that the people’s war strategy reminds the military of the political aspects that should be taken into account. In addition, it suggested that the protests that occurred in Hong Kong should be avoided in Taiwan.

According to analysts, Beijing has mentioned that the people’s war should be carried forward and based on active defense. China has always regarded the military reunification with Taiwan as a defensive operation because Beijing views Taiwan as China’s territory.

Source: The PLA Daily, March 31, 2023                                                                                                                                                                                                

In August, China Suffered its Biggest Monthly Decline in Chip Production

According to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on September 16, 2022, China’s integrated circuits (ICs) production in August 2022 was down by 24.7 percent year on year to 24.7 billion units. It is the largest monthly decrease since 1997 when NBS started collecting data. For the first eight months of 2022, China’s total semiconductor output fell by10 percent year on year to 218.1 billion units.

According to statistics from the business database platform Qichacha, a record 3,470 companies in the semiconductor business went out of business in the first eight months of the year. Analysts attributed it to China’s zero-COVID-19 policy and sluggish consumer demand. Chinese semiconductor companies cannot hold on and have eventually withdrawn from the semiconductor business one after another.

According to the NBS, in August,the  production of microcomputers dropped by18.6 percent to 317.5 billion units, marking the largest drop since December 2015,  The microcomputer category includes personal computers, smartphones, video game consoles, and other handheld electronic devices.


China’s National Bureau of Statistics, September 16, 2022, September 14, 2022

China Imposes New Restrictions on Live-Stream e-Commerce

Recently, China’s State Administration of Radio and Television and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism jointly issued a “Code of Conduct for Live-Stream Online Hosts.”

The purpose of the 18-article regulation was to curb the spread of perceived opposition to the CCP in online e-commerce, such as was shown by Li Jiaqi, a top e-commerce live streamer, two weeks before the regulation. In the evening on June 3, Li and his co-host were presented on TV before the audience with a plate of the British brand Wall’s layered ice cream. The ice cream was garnished with a chocolate ball and a chocolate stick on top. The show ended abruptly. The CCP authorities believed that it resembled the shape of a tank.

On the evening of June 4, 1989, the CCP leaders sent military tanks and heavily armed troops to Beijing’s Tiananmen Square and cracked down on student protesters who were demanding democracy and greater freedom. According to a recently declassified secret cable written on June 5, 1989, by Sir Alan Donald, the then-British ambassador to China, the death toll was 10,000. The CCP had announced a death roll of 241. The “Tank Man” picture showing a young man standing in front of Chinese military tanks trying to stop the tanks at Tiananmen Square in Beijing in 1989  has become the worldwide monumental symbol of the June 4 massacre. As a result of the vigilant efforts of the CCP to censor any references to the killings, most young Chinese, especially those born after the massacre, have little knowledge of the killings.

The 18-article regulation prohibits 31 behaviors in the live stream audio-visual programs.

Online live streamers must be politically correct. They must have a correct perspective of the world, life, and values. They must be “actively practicing the Core Socialist Values.”

Of the prohibitions, Article 14 Section 3 prohibits “publishing content that weakens, distorts or denies the leadership of the Communist Party of China, the socialist system, or economic reform and opening up.”

Under Article 17, online accounts shall be closed for those with serious issues or repeated problems who do not change their ways. “Their names shall be entered onto a ‘blacklist’ or ‘warning list’ and shall not be permitted to resume broadcasts through methods such as changing account names or platforms.”

Source: China National Radio and Television Administration, June 22, 2022                                                                                                                                                          

China Ministry of Culture and Tourism, June 22, 2022                                                                                                                                                                                                    


Zero-Covid Policy – No Sign of Changing Course

As more cities in China brace for a possible lockdown, the Chinese Communist leadership shows no sign of changing the course of its zero-COVID policy.

On May 6, the CCP in Shanghai held a mobilization meeting to, “Resolutely Win the Great Shanghai Defense War.” The CCP Shanghai Secretary Li Qiang asked “military orders to be issued at every level.” Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng requested that every building, street and door must be checked in Pudong New District, Xuhui District, and Minhang District so that not one household is missed. The Mayor of Pudong New Area ordered that “even if one is smashed, he must complete the task.” Experts believe that this move was driven by political considerations and has no bearing on public health.

On May 7, CCP Shanghai Secretary Li Qiang inspected Jiading District. He reiterated the rhetoric. “The top priority is to reduce new cases and prevent rebound.” He called on people to “grit their teeth, stick it out, and resolutely win the battle of Shanghai’s defense.”

On the same day, the Xuhui District issued an emergency notice. From May 1 through 15, all residents must stay at home except for going out to have COVID testing. The community will stop accepting group purchases and express delivery. If a resident has placed an order, he must cancel or postpone the delivery time until after May 15. In addition, the authorities will suspend food distribution for those who do not participate in the COVID testing of them. The neighborhood committee will no longer issue exit permits to anyone to leave the community.

Earlier, a neighborhood committee in Pudong District issued a notice stating that it had received an order from above that if one has tested positive, all the residents on the entire floor would become “positive contacts” and “all the residents above and below the floor where the positive case occurs will be transferred and quarantined.”

Source: Epoch Times, May 8, 2022

Sharp Drop in Travel during China’s Qingming Festival Due to Covid-19 Flare-up

A recent COVID-19 flare-up and the authorities’ lockdown policy have depressed travel and tourism during the Qingming Festival from April 2 to 4. The Qingming Festival, also called Tomb Sweeping Day in China, is a time to remember and pay respect to ancestors.


According to China’s Ministry of Transportation, on April 5, 53.781 million traveled by railway, highway, waterway, and air combined during the Qingming Festival holiday, a sharp drop of 62.7 percent compared year on year with 2021.


Among those who traveled, those who  chose to use the railways fell by 83.7 percent compared with the same period in 2021. Travel by highways declined by 53.2 percent; trips via waterways were down by 77.0 percent, and air travel was down by 87.0 percent.


According to China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism data center, 75.419 million domestic trips took place across the country during the three-day festival, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2 percent. Domestic tourism revenue was estimated to be around 18.78 billion yuan, a decline of 30.9 percent, year on year.



Jiamian, April 6, 2022

China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism, April 6, 2022

Transitioning from Forced Abortions to Forced Births?

As China’s population crisis worsens, the Communist regime announced that it will intervene in the area of abortions among unmarried people.

The China Family Planning Association under the Chinese Communist Party of China released a directive titled, “China Family Planning Association’s Priorities for 2022.” It requires the development of special actions for abortion intervention among unmarried people to reduce unintended pregnancies and abortions among adolescents. In the past, the family planning agency enforced the one-child policy by forcing abortions.

According to media reports, the number of China’s annual abortions has hovered around 9.5 million over the past five years. This number came from an article published in 2021 in the Chinese Journal of Practical Gynecology and Obstetrics.

Separately, the Institute of Science and Technology under China’s National Health Commission conducted a survey in 2021 of 39,820 women who had abortions. Women under 25 who had abortions accounted for 47.5 percent. Other studies have shown that women under 20 who have abortions are becoming a significant portion  of those women who have abortions.

This comes as China is facing a demographic crisis after its birthrate has fallen for the fifth consecutive year.  Fewer babies were born in 2021 than during the Great Famine between 1959 and 1961. Beijing has directed governments at all levels to find ways to stop the population problem from worsening. The priorities issued by the China Family Planning Association have sparked concerns that women may be forced to give birth. It is estimated that there were 400 to 600 million abortions during the one-child policy between 1980 and 2015.

1.) The China Family Planning Association, January 28, 2022

2.)The Paper, February 9, 2022