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Briefings - 160. page

Chinese Scholar: Total Population May Peak in 2022

With China’s natural population growth approaching zero last year, Cai Fang, the former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CAAS) and a member of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, believes it is entirely possible that China’s population will reach its peak in 2022.

According to the 2021 population data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s total population was 1.41 billion at the end of last year, with a natural growth rate of 0.34 per 1,000.

Cai said in a speech at a conference on March 18th that the most prominent factor affecting China’s long-term economic growth is population.

The demographic factors are now creating constraints on the demand side. Cai noted, “In the past we had negative growth in the working-age population, which was a supply-side constraint. Now we may be experiencing negative growth in the total population, which will create a new constraint on the demand side.”

Cai added that with the weakening of the comparative advantage of manufacturing and the slowdown of the growth in GDP, the export-and-investment-driven growth model is unsustainable. There is an urgent need to shift to a model that relies more on domestic consumption. As the population growth rate has declined, the growth rate of total consumption has also declined, and it is declining rapidly. He pointed out that the trend of population change is irreversible and cannot be reversed in the short term or in the foreseeable future. He said that the only thing that can change is the income distribution.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao (Singapore), March 21, 2022
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20220321-1254491

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Global Times: U.S. Revoked Chinese Telecom Companies’ Licenses Again

Global Times recently reported that the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) continues to target Chinese telecommunications companies,and revoked the operating licenses of two Chinese companies in the United States on the grounds of “national security.” The FCC officially decided on March 16th to terminate the licenses of Pacific Networks and its wholly-owned subsidiary ComNet for providing interstate and international communication services in the United States. In its announcement, the FCC offered a range of reasons for the action. The FCC indicated that Pacific Networks and ComNet belong to Chinese state-owned enterprises and are exploited, influenced and controlled by the Chinese government. They are likely to be compelled to implement the Chinese government’s demands without adequate legal procedures under independent judicial oversight. China’s national security environment has changed since the FCC authorized the companies to provide communications services in the United States. Their ownership structure gave them, their parent companies and affiliates, and the Chinese government the opportunity to access, store, disrupt and mislead the U.S. in its communications, allowing them to engage in espionage and other harmful activities against the United States, thereby greatly increasing the U.S. national security and law enforcement risks. Earlier this year, the FCC also revoked the licenses of China Unicom, China Telecom and China Mobile. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs both responded by stating that the United States continues to generalize the concept of national security, abuses government power, and maliciously suppresses Chinese telecommunications companies without a factual basis. China firmly opposes this.

Source: Global Times, March 18, 2022
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/47EcXX8ntB9

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology US-China Relations

The Chip Industry Encounters another Unexpected Event

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck off the coast of Fukushima, Japan. The earthquake also shut down some factories, including chip maker Renesas Electronics. This tragedy in Japan once again casts a shadow over the auto industry, which is suffering from chip supply bottlenecks and rising raw material prices. A total of three Renesas factories were affected. One of them is an important chip production base for Renesas, and automotive chips account for about two-thirds of the products it produces. The earthquake also affected Japanese car companies such as Toyota and Nissan. Renesas is the world’s third largest automotive chip maker and the world’s largest manufacturer of microcontrollers (MCUs), accounting for about 19 percent of the global market. In addition to Toyota, Nissan, Ford, Great Wall Motors and other automakers are also customers of Renesas Electronics. Many automobile companies are planning to raise prices. Since 2020, the global auto industry has been plagued by chip shortages. According to Auto Forecast Solutions (AFS) data, due to the shortage of automotive chip supplies, the global automobile production volume was reduced by 11.31 million vehicles in 2021, a drop of 14.6 percent, of which the Chinese vendors reduced production by 2.148 million vehicles in 2021. According to the latest forecast from AFS, global automakers may cut production by more than 1 million vehicles in 2022 due to chip shortages. In this context, chip prices have also risen. The shipment cycle of chips is also much longer than before the pandemic. China’s auto production and sales account for about 33 percent of the global market, but auto semiconductors and other components mainly rely on overseas suppliers.

Source: Sina, March 18, 2022
https://news.sina.com.cn/s/2022-03-18/doc-imcwipih9278428.shtml

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology

Large Real Estate Developer Yango Group Defaulted Domestically and Internationally

Well-known Chinese news site NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) recently reported that the Yango Group of Fujian Province has a market value of RMB hundreds of billions. Its domestic and overseas debts exploded at the same time. On March 16, China Construction Bank issued an announcement that Yango’s RMB 600 million medium-term notes “20 Yango MTN001” missed their due date of March 15. The issuer, Yango Group, failed to pay the interest or principal in full on schedule, which constituted a breach. On the same day, the company’s controlling shareholder, Sunshine Group, announced that the principal and interest of the existing overseas bonds “YANGOG 12.5 02/20/22” (US$106 million) and “YANGOG 12.5 01/04/24” (US$300 million) defaulted. More defaults are expected in the next one-year timeframe since there are payments due every month. In the past month, Yango Group has also suffered a number of holdings being judicially frozen. After the thunderstorm in Yango, the company’s senior executives were in turmoil and many of them departed. Yango is a publicly traded company with a real estate business in over 100 cities across China. It ranks among the top 20 real estate companies in China.

Source: NetEase, March 17, 2022
https://www.163.com/dy/article/H2LE9J030530NLC9.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China Encounters Obstacles in Global Race for Cobalt 

At the beginning of March, a Congolese court ordered Chinese Molybdenum Co. (Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum) to cede control temporarily (for approximately six months) of the cobalt mine –Tenke Fungurume. The state-owned miner Gécamines SA of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) accused Chinese Molybdenum of trying to evade paying millions of dollars in royalties by under-reporting reserves. China Molybdenum acquired the mine from Freeport McMoRan Inc. in 2016 for $2.65 billion. The investigation has been extended to several other Chinese companies there. That extension threatens to affect China’s global competition in cobalt. 

The DRC’s cobalt belt is the world’s richest source of cobalt. It has become critical to the global transition to cleaner energy. Cobalt can boost charge rates and has a stabilizing effect, extending battery life and preventing cathode corrosion that can lead to battery fires. Just one electric vehicle can require between 10 and 30 pounds of cobalt to build its battery, depending on the manufacturer.  

China has been using electric vehicles as a breakthrough point to catch up with the Western auto industry. It has not only included them in the ten key areas of “Made in China 2025” but has also laid out a big plan to monopolize cobalt by investing heavily in Africa. China’s interest includes areas from   cobalt mining to the generation of lithium batteries. It also includes cobalt refining, manufacturing battery cells, integrating battery modules and assembling batteries. China is trying to control the entire ecosystem. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that, for more than a decade, Chinese companies have spent billions of dollars buying out U.S. and European mines in the DRC’s cobalt belt. 

According to the estimates by Darton Commodities, Chinese refineries supplied 85 percent of the world’s battery cobalt in 2020. Most of this cobalt came from the DRC. Last year the DRC accounted for 70 percent of the world’s total cobalt production. Chinese companies dominate nearly 70 percent of the country’s mining industry. 

The DRC is one of the world’s poorest countries. More than 60 percent of its 90 million people live on less than $1.90 a day. According to the World Bank, the DRC’s annual budget is about $7 billion. In the middle of last year, during a visit to mining areas, DRC President Félix Tshisekedi vowed that his government would continue to review mining contracts to ensure that the Congolese people benefit from their vast extractive industry and finally break the so-called resources curse by paying higher wages and royalties. 

Euractiv even reported that the Congolese workers of Sicomines who are employed by a company a Chinese consortium owns claim that they do the same work as Chinese workers do but are paid much less than Chinese and their Chinese supervisors subject them to degrading treatment. 

Source: Epoch Times, March 12, 2022

https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/3/12/n13641727.htm

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Global Times Editorial: Washington Cannot Expect China’s “Cooperation” while Suppressing China

China’s state-run media Global Times published an editorial following a meeting of Yang Jiechi, Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee with Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor to the President of the United States, in Rome, Italy on March 14. Below is an excerpt from the article:

“We noted that the White House’s statements both before and after the meeting mentioned the Ukraine issue and ‘maintaining open channels of communication between the United States and China.’ Some analysts believe that it is more likely that the United States offered to meet. In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it is the United States who has demands for China.”

“In any case, if the U.S. really wants to make “continuous efforts” to maintain “open communication channels” between the two sides, it should at least show a sincere attitude first. However, just a day before this meeting, the U.S. played a lot of disgraceful tricks, all of which are related to the Ukraine issue. For example, the U.S. media reported the news through a so-called “anonymous senior U.S. official,” saying that after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia asked China to provide “military assistance,” including drones. In another example, Sullivan himself also said on the same day that if Beijing assists or supports Russia to evade sanctions on a large scale, “there will definitely be consequences.” The threat is obviously expressed in words. Using rumors and intimidation to seek favorable conditions for negotiation is an old means of American diplomacy, China never buys this strategy.”

“These actions also show from another aspect that Washington is really anxious about the Ukraine issue. It wants China to dance with its own pace. What the United States hopes is to weave a big net to strangle Russia all over the world, so that all countries can become a node in this net, and no ‘loopholes’ are allowed. The United States is the initiator in the Ukraine crisis. But it wants the world to be a ‘tool man’ for its expansion of strategic interests. It makes one wonder, where does the United States get its confidence? Have you been dominating the world for so long that you even think that the joystick that turns the earth is in your hands? If Washington wants to forcibly tie Sino-U.S. relations to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it obviously has ‘deviated’ from the path, and it will definitely be disappointed.”

“Last year, U.S. leaders and some senior officials successively stated that the U.S. does not seek a ‘new Cold War,’ does not seek to change China’s system, does not seek to strengthen alliances against China, does not support ‘Taiwan independence,’ and has no intention of confronting China. But these ‘four does nots and one no intention” are still only on the lips. Just two days ago, the U.S. Congress passed a bill to use the so-called map of the Taiwan region to engage in political manipulation, creating ‘two Chinas’ and ‘one China, one Taiwan.’ This is not only a blatant provocation against China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, but also another proof of Washington’s disloyalty toward its commitments. There are many more such things. Under such circumstances, why does the U.S. think that China should ‘cooperate’ with it?”

Source: Global Times, March 15, 2022
https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/47CLWUTMWQN

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Duowei News: China’s Retort to NATO’s Call to Condemn Russia: “We Will Never Forget the Embassy Bombing Incident”

Duowei News, a Chinese news media based in North America and a major media portal of China’s “great overseas propaganda” network, reported that, in a press conference on March 15, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expressed that China has an obligation as a member of the UN Security Council actually to support and to uphold international law and join the rest of the world in condemning Russia’s invasion.
In response, the spokesperson for the Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the European Union retorted, “We have taken note of the relevant remarks. The Chinese people can fully relate to the pains and sufferings of other countries because we will never forget who bombed our embassy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.[ [ ] We need no lecture on justice from the abuser of international law. As a Cold War remnant and the world’s largest military alliance, NATO continues to expand its geographical scope and range of operations. What kind of role has it played in world peace and stability? NATO needs to do some good reflection.”
[ [ ] Referring to the bombing of its embassy in Yugoslavia by Nato forces decades ago

Source: Duowei News, March 17, 2022
 https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3170821/china-harks-back-belgrade-embassy-bombing-after-nato-cites-its?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=3170821 https://www.dwnews.com/全球/60282371/北约呼吁中国谴责俄罗斯中方强硬回击永不会忘炸馆事件

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics US-China Relations

National Congress Proposals: Graduate Earlier to Have a Baby Earlier

China finished its National “Lianghui” from March 4 to March 12 this year. “Lianghui,” or the “Two Conferences,” is a common Mandarin Chinese abbreviation for the National People’s Congress and the National Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. It is a rubber stamp process to show there is “democracy” in China: the representatives can review, approve, and comment on the work of the central government and propose policies to the governments, though that has no substantial effect.

A few representatives made proposals this year to encourage more births, indicating that China is facing a serious birth shortage problem.

A university vice president suggested to shorten the education of elementary, middle, and high schools from 12 years to 10 years, so that “people can graduate earlier, start work earlier, get married earlier, and then have babies earlier.”

Another representative suggested to completely lift the birth control policy in Northeastern China. China’s current policy is that a couple can have up to three children. According to Beijing’s 2020 Census, the population in Northeastern China dropped 11 million from 2010 to 2020.

Another proposal was to allow people to retire at the age of 45. The earlier retirement could free up more jobs to young people, so that they have less pressure to focus on their job and delay the time to have baby.

There are also proposals to allow single women to have one child and mandate men to take one month of paternity leave.

Source: Epoch Times, March 10, 2022
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/3/10/n13635697.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources