After the result of Korea’s presidential election was made public, China’s state media, Global Times, published an editorial giving advice to Korea’s new administration not to side with the U.S. on some key issues such as THAAD deployment. An excerpt of the article follows:
“The results of South Korea’s 20th presidential election were released on March 10. Yin Xiyue the candidate of South Korea’s largest opposition party, the National Power Party, won the election. The extent to which the new president will adjust South Korea’s domestic and foreign policies has attracted great attention from the outside world. At the press conference held that morning, Yin Xiyue said that “the Korea-China relations will be developed on the basis of mutual respect.” This sentence leaves a lot of room for the public’s interpretation.”
“Due to a number of reasons, some people in South Korea are now paranoid because they believe that ‘China does not treat South Korea as an equal. They think that the connotation of ‘mutual respect’ should be that China treats South Korea ‘as an equal.’ Some even believe that China will respect South Korea only if South Korea-U.S. relations are consolidated.”
“In fact, mutual respect is one of the basic principles of China’s handling of foreign relations and the same is true for South Korea. China understands and respects South Korea’s independent foreign policy orientation, and is also aware of the alliance between the United States and South Korea. However, China’s respect for South Korea has never been due to the U.S.-Korea alliance or other reasons. It can only be based on a mutual understanding of each other’s core interests and major concerns.”
“At the same time, we also want to remind that ‘mutual respect’ not only includes ‘respect,’ It includes the connotation of ‘mutual,’ which is equally important. It not only means that China respects Korea, but also includes China’s legitimate concern that Korea should respect China.”
“There is a view that Yin Xiyue deliberately mentioned ‘mutual respect,’ which is aimed at the relevant remarks of the Moon Jae-in government on the THAAD issue (not joining the U.S. anti-missile system, not developing security cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan into a tripartite military alliance and not deploying an additional THAAD system). Although Yin Xiyue did say that he did not think it was ‘achieved within the framework of mutual respect,’ his senior adviser also said that Yin Xiyue supported the addition of a new ‘THAAD’ system. But we hope that this view is a distorted one or a misunderstanding of Yin Xiyue. In other words, China respects South Korea’s legitimate concerns about its own security, and at the same time, it also recognizes that real security must be common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable. China’s strategic security interests should also be respected by South Korea. The South Korean side should not regard the deployment of THAAD as an issue of ‘internal affairs’ or a ‘sovereignty’ issue, which is essentially a wedge that the United States has nailed in Northeast Asia.
“At the press conference, Yin Xiyue expressed his desire to ‘rebuild the Korea-U.S. alliance.’ We fully respect South Korea’s independence and sovereignty, but China-South Korea relations should not be regarded as an appendage of South Korea-U.S. relations, nor should the self-esteem of South Korean society be filled with misreading and misjudgment that ‘China will respect South Korea only when South Korea-U.S. relations have been consolidated.’ Moreover, South Korea actually has no room to gamble in the so-called ‘China-U.S. battle.’ Only by accurately clarifying and grasping the connotation of ‘mutual respect’ can South Korea find the code to become a ‘central country.'”
Source: Global Times, March 10, 2022
https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/478hZjJlQhJ
Briefings - 162. page
Duowei News: Reflections on the Ukraine War: This Is a Period of Strategic Opportunity for China
Duowei News, a pro-Beijing Chinese News media stationed in North America, published an article stating that the Russia-Ukraine war is giving China another golden development opportunity. The following are excerpts from the article.
“China’s rise can be attributed to a number of reasons, but there is one thing upon which everyone generally agrees. That is the fortune of the country. Take the China-U.S. relationship as an example. At the beginning of the millennium, when George W. Bush took office, the U.S. had already vaguely felt the momentum of China’s rise. Bush gradually changed China’s position from a partner to a competitor. During his campaign, George W. Bush also made it clear that if there were a war in the Taiwan Strait, he would help defend Taiwan.”
“Given China’s level of technological and economic development at that time, if the United States had started to contain China with all its strength, encouraged Taiwan independence, forced China to attack Taiwan, and then intervened on a large scale to conduct political, diplomatic and economic blockades, it is not difficult to imagine what China would look like now.“
“However, the 9/11 incident suddenly occurred. All the focus of the U.S. military diplomacy turned to the war on terrorists. China also quickly showed its sympathy and support for the United States. As a result, during Bush’s tenure, Sino-U.S. relations not only did not decline. The relationship entered one of the most stable and peaceful periods in history.”
……
“The Ukrainian war broke out and all the development plans (of containing China) that were planned according to the wishes of the United States were disrupted. Although the United States has gained a lot of military-industrial and economic benefits from this war, the Biden administration’s most important strategic appeal to win over Russia and unite Europe and other Western societies to contain and isolate China with all its strength can no longer be achieved.” “At least for the next 10 to 20 years, Russia’s economy will be in shambles, plunged into its worst isolation since World War II, further deepening its economic and diplomatic reliance on China.”
“At the same time, due to the military pressure from Russia, the United States has also begun to show goodwill toward China. Since the war, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has taken the initiative to call the Chinese Foreign Minister twice to discuss the Ukraine issue, hoping that China can play a constructive role during the war. In addition, on issues such as the economy; trade, Taiwan, and others, the United States has also begun to make concessions and adjustments covertly but slowly.”
“Because the contradiction between China and the United States is structural, and associated with strong cultural, ideological and power conflict factors, it is impossible for China-U.S. relations to return to the past. However, at least for the next 5 to 10 years, there will be a period of a relatively easy time. This is a very rare opportunity for China’s development. During this period, China must focus its energy on development and seize this rare opportunity to develop and strengthen itself as soon as possible.”
“Of course, there is a premise here. That is, the Taiwan issue. The next 5 to 10 years will also be a window for China to solve the Taiwan issue. How China and the United States will deal with this issue will especially test the political wisdom of both sides. That is to not only resolve China’s core concerns of accomplishing national reunification, but also not to embarrass the United States. At the same time, it also depends on the fortune and wisdom of Tsai Ing-wen and the next Taiwan government (which is likely to continue to be the DPP). Maybe, what is happening in Ukraine today will be repeated in Taiwan tomorrow. The fight that Russia and the United States and Europe are going through will also be the fight that China and the United States and Japan will experience in the future.”
Source: Duowei News, March 6, 2022
https://www.dwnews.com/中国/60281141/乌克兰战争随思录这是送给中国的战略机遇期?itm_source=universal_search&itm_campaign=universal_search&itm_content=这是送给中国的战略机遇期&itm_medium= web
China’s Defense Budget Increased to a 3-year High
At China’s 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting on March 5, the central and local government budgets were publicized. According to the report, the official budget for national defense for 2022 is 1.45 trillion yuan (US$229.5 billion), an annual increase of 7.1 percent. The official national defense spending for 2021 is $1.36 trillion (US$215.2 billion).
This year’s 7.1 percent growth is the highest since 2019, when the country’s spending grew at 7.5 percent. The increase in 2021 and 2020 were 6.8 percent and 6.6 percent respectively.
The increase in China’s military spending this year is higher than the official target of 5.5 percent in economic growth. In recent years, the targeted economic growth rates have been reduced year by year while the military spending has been rising at an increasing rate.
Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 5, 2022
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202203050227.aspx
Optimism of U.S. Companies in China is Declining
The American Chamber of Commerce in China (AmCham China) recently published its 24th annual edition of the China Business Climate Survey (BCS) Report.
According to the 2022 BCS Report, In 2021, US companies in China reported a declining level of optimism due to multiple challenges. These included sustained air travel disruptions, an increasingly uncertain regulatory environment, difficulty attracting and retaining talent, and the strained US-China relationship.
US companies operating in China faced mounting pressure and risks on politically sensitive issues as well. One example is navigating US-China bilateral tensions, which remains a top challenge and concern for companies. 42 percent of companies have been facing mounting pressure to speak out and make (or not make) statements on politically sensitive issues. This has often caused them problems in both the U.S. and Chinese markets.
More than twice as many companies feel “much less welcome” in China compared to last year. One-third of respondents report that foreign companies are treated unfairly versus domestic competitors.
Most believe labor costs will increase in 2022, in line with fears that labor costs and wages are a growing HR challenge.
47 percent of the over 300 respondents report they are confident or very confident that the Chinese market will open up more to foreign investment over the next three years. This figure is down 14 percentage points from last year.
Optimism is down across almost all aspects of business operations in China and pessimism up more than 10 percentage points with regard to the regulatory environment and economic growth. 37 percent of members see China’s investment environment improving, a 13 percentage point decrease from last year and the lowest in four years. Concerns about an uncertain Chinese policy environment is the most-cited reason for declining investment.
Source: AmCham China, March 2022.
https://www.amchamchina.org/2022-china-business-climate-survey-report/
Canadian Embassy: “Support Ukraine” Spray-painted on its Light-box
On March 1, the Canadian Embassy in Beijing flew the Ukrainian flag and displayed the wording, “We support Ukraine” and “We are with Ukraine” on the light box on its outer wall. On its official Weibo account, the Chinese counterpart of Twitter, the Embassy posted an article titled, “Today, in Beijing, we raise the Ukrainian flag to express our solidarity with the people of Ukraine.” However, Chinese netizens flooded the comment section of the article with criticism.
On March 2, the light box signboard with “We support Ukraine” written on it was found spray-painted in red with the wording “Fxxx NATO,” which seems to be a way to express dissatisfaction with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Canadian Embassy’s solidarity with Ukraine. The spray-painted area was later covered up, but the light box signage saying, “Support Ukraine” has not been removed.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the mainstream opinion in China is mostly in favor of Russia and against Ukraine, although there have also been some people who expressed their position in support of Ukraine and against Russian aggression.
Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 3, 2022
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202203030249.aspx
LTN: Poland Plans to Double its Army to “Become NATO’s Strongest”
Major Taiwanese news network Liberty Times Network (LTN) recently reported that Ukraine has suffered from Russian aggression, making countries adjacent to Russia quite nervous. NATO member Poland has announced that it is necessary to update next year’s military expenses and expand its military scale to strengthen its defense ability. The Polish Army will expand from 143,500 soldiers to 300,000. The Polish government said it plans to focus on the defensive ability of its capital, Warsaw. The military expenses for next year were increased from the 2.5 percent of GDP proposed in October last year, to 3 percent, and may increase more if necessary. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak pointed out that this will be a framework to have one of NATO’s strongest armies. He also said, “The evil empire is trying to be reborn (and come) through our eastern frontier.” Poland intends to raise funds from the bonds or interest of the Central Bank of Poland and other banks. Since the E.U. stipulates that the budget overspending cannot exceed 3 percent, Poland is negotiating with the EU not to include military spending in the budget deficit.
Source: LTN, March 5, 2022
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/3849139
Global Times: The Ukraine War Brings Damage to Trade between Indian and Russia
Global Times recently reported that, according to Indian media, the Indian government may soon resort to swapping rupees for trade with Russian rubles, bypassing Western sanctions to avoid disruptions to India-Russia trade. Since the end of 2021, Russian and Indian defense export payments have been made in rubles and rupees, abandoning the use of U.S. dollars. To ensure Russia maintains fertilizer supplies to India amid sanctions, the Indian government and banking sources revealed there is a plan for Russian banks and companies to open Indian rupee accounts in some state-owned banks for trade settlement as part of the barter system. Russian economic experts pointed out that Russia is still evading sanctions through some friendly neighbors. Russia’s trade and capital flows will turn east again. Global Times also reported that, as one of the world’s leading arms exporters, the new round of U.S. sanctions may hugely impact Russian military enterprises on their export of weapons systems. India may have to swallow the “bitter fruit” produced by the U.S. and the West’s sanctions against Russia. Russia has been India’s largest arms supplier since the 1970s. Although the United States has been courting India in recent years to provide India with American-style equipment, more than 60 percent of India’s weapons and equipment comes from Russia and India’s authorized defense industry production chain basically comes from Russia. Senior Indian government officials said that the Indian army currently has sufficient reserves of Russian-made ammunitions and weapons’ spare parts. However, India’s orders for weapons worth about US$8 billion from Russia will face uncertainty. Since Russia was kicked out of the SWIFT system by the United States and the West, payments for arms transactions between the two countries will be seriously affected. In addition, the weapons projects jointly developed and produced by India and Russia may also be hit hard.
Source: Global Times, March 4, 2022
https://finance.huanqiu.com/article/473CosONcMc
https://mil.huanqiu.com/article/4730vkchnhV
HK01: French Museum Suspends Cooperation with Chinese Art Institutions
Hong Kong’s popular new online media, HK01 Network, recently reported that the Matisse Museum in northern France has announced the cancellation of its loan of 280 works to the UCCA (Center for Contemporary Art) in Beijing. The Museum cited “the geopolitical crisis triggered by Russia’s declaration of war on Ukraine” and “China’s Relations with Russia.” The exhibition was originally scheduled to open in Beijing on March 26 and was to move to the UCCA pavilion in Shanghai next. UCCA suspended the exhibitions until further notice as the loan program has been cancelled. The Henri Matisse exhibition, originally scheduled to open in Beijing on the 26th of this month, is the largest solo exhibition in China by the French painter. Henri Matisse (1869-1954), is known as one of the masters of modern art. Matisse, together with Picasso and Marcel Duchamp, brought great changes to the arts in the early 20th century. So far, China has not condemned Russia for invading Ukraine. China was one of the 35 countries abstaining in the UN General Assembly’s vote on condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Western intelligence revealed that senior Chinese officials have asked senior Russian officials to delay its invasion of Ukraine until after the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing this year. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry denied the allegations.
Source: HK01, March 4, 2022
https://bit.ly/3Kjs5wH