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Subtle Shifts in Military Protocol Signal Possible Change in Xi Jinping’s Authority Over Chinese Military

The question of whether Xi Jinping has lost some of his power has been a recent topic of hot discussion among Chinese-language media operating outside of mainland China. The following are some points made on this topic analyzing Chinese military activity.

  • From October 24 to 26, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) Central Military Commission (CMC), visited Vietnam. He received a high-level reception. Political analysts suggest that Zhang’s visit subtly hints that Zhang may have superseded Xi Jinping in terms of authority over the Chinese military.

On October 24, Zhang’s Vietnamese counterpart General Phan Van Giang welcomed Zhang with a red carpet. During their talks, Zhang did not mention Xi Jinping, stating only that Chinese-Vietnamese relations have been cultivated by “generations of leaders from both countries.” Zhang reportedly “emphasized the need to implement the consensus reached” by the two parties and by “high-level leaders of both countries” (not referring to Xi by name).

On October 25, Vietnam’s top leader To Lam held a meeting with Zhang. To Lam conveyed greetings and well-wishes to Xi Jinping, but Zhang did not mention Xi. Chinese state media claimed that Zhang had passed along Xi’s greetings and well-wishes to To Lam, however. Vietnamese President Luong Cuong also met Zhang on the same day. Luong Cuong mentioned Xi but Zhang did not respond, expressing only congratulations to Luong on the recent start of his presidency and that it was his pleasure to visit Vietnam as Vice Chairman of the CMC.

On October 26, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh also met with Zhang.

  • On October 31, the General Office of the CMC issued a document titled “Guidelines for Developing and Promoting a Strong Military Culture.” The document mentions “strong military culture” and “strong military ideology” but does not include references to “Xi Jinping’s strong military ideology” or the “CMC Chairman Responsibility System” as it used to do in the past. It says that the military should “follow the Party’s command” but not that it should “follow Xi Jinping’s command” or “follow the command of the CMC Chairman.”
  • On October 17, during an inspection of a Rocket Force unit in Anhui Province, Xi Jinping said “We must uphold the Party’s absolute leadership over the military… to ensure the troops obey the (CCP’s) Central Committee and CMC at all times and under any circumstances.” He did not emphasize “absolute loyalty” or the “CMC Chairman Responsibility System,” however
  • On November 4, during Xi’s visit to the Airborne Corps in Xiaogan City, Hubei Province, Xinhua News Agency reported that Xi did not mention “the Party’s absolute leadership over the military” or “obeying the (CCP’s) Central Committee and CMC,” nor did he mention “loyalty.”

Sources:
1. Epoch Times, October 28, 2024
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/24/10/28/n14358971.htm
2. People’s Daily, October 31, 2024
http://politics.people.com.cn/n1/2024/1031/c1001-40350708.html
3. Aboluo, November 1, 2024
https://www.aboluowang.com/2024/1101/2123502.html
4. Epoch Times, November 6, 2024
https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/24/11/5/n14365087.htm

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Government/Politics

CNA: HIMARS Tactical Missile Systems Arrives in Taiwan

According to primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA), Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense recently confirmed that 11 HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) have arrived in Taiwan. People familiar with the matter confirmed that the 300-kilometer-range MGM-140 Army Tactical Missiles (ATACMS) included in the HIMARS Arms Sale program have also arrived in Taiwan. The exact number of missiles arriving in Taiwan was not disclosed due to the sensitivity of the program. Scholars pointed out that this tactical missile provide the Taiwanese military with the ability to counterattack against a hypothetical invasion by the Chinese communist army.

Taiwan originally purchased 11 HIMARS systems from the United States. Later, it purchased an additional 18 systems, bringing the total to 29. The original purchase included 64 MGM-140 ATACMS missiles, with the total increasing to 84 missiles after the second purchase.

The Ukrainian military carried out in-depth interdiction strikes in combats after Ukraine obtained ATACMS missiles as part of a U.S. aid package in the first half of 2024, attacking Russian supply lines, ammunition depots, and so on, with very powerful effects. In October 2020 the United States announced the sale of HIMARS systems and ATACMS missiles to Taiwan during Donald Trump’s first term as president.

Source: CNA, November 9, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202411090197.aspx

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Lianhe Zaobao: TSMC Suspends Supply of 7nm and Below Chips to China

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that, after Huawei’s AI processors were found to contain U.S.-banned TSMC chips, TSMC is suspending the supply of seven-nanometer and below chips to all mainland Chinese customers, regardless whether they are on the U.S. trade control list or not. TSMC has sent an official email to all mainland China AI chip customers, announcing the starting date of November 11 for the suspension.

TSMC’s decision is a huge blow to mainland Chinese AI and GPU companies and will have a significant impact on their performance and market competitiveness. Chip design companies in mainland China may have to find new foundries, which will lead to the reorganization of their supply chain. Mainland China’s current production capacity for advanced-process chips is currently very limited.

Bloomberg reported last month that semiconductor industry research organization TechInsights dismantled Huawei’s AI server chip Ascend 910B and found that a TSMC chip was part of the Huawei chip’s multi-chip architecture. Huawei was included on the U.S. trade control list in 2019.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, November 8, 2024
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20241108-5315456?amp

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

Xinhua: Chinese Air Force Demonstrates New HQ-19 Missile System

Xinhua recently reported from The Fifteenth Chinese Air Show that the Chinese Air Force displayed the HQ-19 surface-to-air missile weapon system for the first time. The HQ-19 system is mainly used to implement regional interception of ballistic missile targets. It is reportedly “able to cover a large combat protection zone” and “has strong penetration and confrontation capabilities.”

The missile launch vehicle uses an 8×8 wheeled high-mobility truck chassis. Each launch vehicle is equipped with six interceptor missiles installed in an integrated “storage-transportation-and-launch” cylindrical launch tube. The launch method is known as “cold launch.” Judging from the adaptive launch base at the rear of the launch tube, the HQ-19 does not use a traditional vertical launch orientation.

Experts explained that the HQ-19 can not only intercept traditional ballistic missiles, but also has the ability to counter hypersonic missiles high up in the atmosphere with glide maneuver penetration capabilities.

Source: Xinhua, November 7, 2024
http://www.news.cn/milpro/20241107/09b8fe1a57b84d989ed86a92e63660ea/c.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Chinese Local Governments ‘Deep-Sea Fishing’ Scheme: Cross-Regional Law Enforcement for Revenue Generation

Local governments in China have reportedly been engaging in a practice dubbed “deep-sea fishing” (远洋捕捞) wherein they conduct law enforcement operations outside their jurisdictions to address local budget shortfalls. This practice involves, for example, freezing company assets or imposing fines under pretenses such as fraud allegations.

The issue is particularly severe in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong. According to a research center in Guangdong, nearly 10,000 businesses in Guangzhou, mostly private enterprises, have been affected by these cross-jurisdictional law enforcement actions since last year.

A notable example is the Guangzhou Yijiankang Group, a company with annual revenue of 2.423 billion yuan (approximately $334 million). The company was targeted by Henan police under fraud allegations, which prevented its planned Hong Kong IPO. Despite having original case amounts of only 600,000 yuan (approximately $83,000), authorities froze 64 company accounts, forcing the company to withdraw its IPO application and halt factory operations.

This trend is reportedly driven by local fiscal pressures, with local governments using fines from these cases to determine budget allocations for law enforcement departments. The practice has severely damaged the business environment and government credibility.

The issue has caught Beijing’s attention. On October 8, the head of the National Development and Reform Commission, Zheng Shanjie, called for standardizing cross-jurisdictional law enforcement and preventing selective and profit-driven enforcement. On October 30, the Ministry of Public Security issued new regulations to standardize the freezing of assets in criminal cases.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 4, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202411040041.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Chinese State Media Mocks US Election as ‘Battle of Five Presidents’ While Analysts Warn of Propaganda Motives

On the eve of the US presidential election, China’s state television CCTV posted a topic on Weibo about “Five US Presidents in a Chaos Battle,” which quickly became a trending topic. Chinese netizens reacted to the post with mockery and criticism of the US electoral system by Chinese netizens. The five presidents mentioned in the post were Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Barak Obama, Bill Clinton, and Jimmy Carter, all of whom were politically active during this last election cycle.

CCTV’s post described President Biden as “out,” Trump as “nearly physically eliminated due to assassination attempts,” and claimed former presidents Obama, Clinton, and Carter were “interfering” (in the election cycle), turning the election into a “battle of five kings.” The post garnered 150 million views and sparked extensive discussion.

Chinese social media users criticized the US election process, with some describing it as lacking civility and democratic atmosphere, comparing it to a marketplace quarrel or gang fight. The topic “#USElection” attracted nearly 15.3 billion views on Weibo.

Analysts note that this coverage is part of China’s internal propaganda strategy to shape public opinion against the US democratic system. An anonymous source from Chongqing stated that Chinese state media regularly crafts anti-US narratives to control public opinion while avoiding any mention of internal political conflicts within the CCP.

Dr. Du Shengcong, a media expert from Taiwan’s Ming Chuan University, describes the Weibo post as “gaseous language” – low-brow statements meant to reach mass audiences. He said that “state media should be more responsible in their reporting” to avoid misinterpretation. He noted,
despite pre-election chaos, US democratic institutions continue to function normally after elections.”

Source: Voice of America, November 5, 2024
https://www.voachinese.com/a/cctv-paints-the-us-elections-in-a-bad-light/7852130.html

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Japanese Schools in Shanghai Switch to Online Classes for Nanjing Massacre Anniversary Amid Safety Concerns

On December 13, marking the 87th anniversary of the Nanjing Massacre, the Japanese Consulate-General in Shanghai announced that two Japanese schools in Shanghai would switch to online classes for the day. This decision follows recent incidents of violence against Japanese residents in China, including a fatal stabbing of a 10-year-old Japanese student in Shenzhen on September 18 (the anniversary of the Mukden Incident) and an attack on a Japanese mother and child in Suzhou in June.

Due to ongoing anti-Japanese sentiment in China, parents of Japanese students are particularly concerned about their children’s safety during sensitive historical dates. The Shanghai Japanese schools’ Hongqiao and Pudong campuses will conduct online classes on December 13, which is China’s National Memorial Day. Japanese consular sources confirmed this decision is a “safety measure” due to potential heightened anti-Japanese sentiment on this day.

A parent interviewed by CNA expressed that while online classes offer some protection, parents hope for more fundamental solutions rather than living in constant fear, especially during historically significant dates. The online learning arrangement applies only to elementary and middle school students, while high school classes will continue in person. Japanese schools in Suzhou and Hangzhou, also under the Shanghai consulate’s jurisdiction, have not yet announced similar measures.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), October 31, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202410310391.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Lianhe Zaobao: Chinese Military Developed AI Tools Based on Meta’s AI Models

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that, in a paper published in June this year, six Chinese military researchers detailed how they used an early version of Meta’s Llama large language model (LLM) to build their ChatBIT model. These researchers named on the publication are from the Military Scientific Information Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, the National Defense Science and Technology Innovation Institute, the Beijing Institute of Technology, and the Minzu University of China.

The Chinese researchers utilized the Llama 2 13B large-scale language model released by Meta in February 2023. Combined with their own parameters, they built a military-focused artificial intelligence tool for collecting and processing intelligence to provide accurate and reliable information for combat decision-making. The paper states that, after fine-tuning, ChatBIT was optimized for question-and-answer tasks in the military field and that its performance exceeded other artificial intelligence models.

Reportedly, the Chinese models are approximately 90 percent as capable as OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4. The Chinese researchers did not elaborate on how they measured performance or on whether the AI model is already in use in the field.

Meta has publicly released many AI models, including Llama, and has imposed licensing restrictions on the use of these models. Specifically, Meta prohibits the use of its models for “military, war, nuclear industry and espionage.” Meta’s public policy director Molly Montgomery said “Any use of our model by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army is unauthorized and violates our acceptable use policy.”

A fierce debate is ongoing in the U.S. national security and technology community over the consequences of technology companies such as Meta making their models public.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, November 1, 2024
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20241101-5283840

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology US-China Relations