Geo-Strategic Trend - 141. page

Central News Agency (CNA) reported that, on September 15, CCTV aired a news report in which it alleged that Taiwan Intelligence has been recruiting mainland students to be spies. The news report claimed that the Chinese national security agency recently organized the “2018-Thunder” project and “uncovered more than one hundred Taiwan spy cases, arrested a group of Taiwanese spies, and promptly cut off the Taiwan spy intelligence network with the mainland.” After the news broadcast, CCTV followed up with a “Focus Report” program which aired three cases in which students from the mainland were recruited to be spies for Taiwan. The program contains photos and “real names” of the “Taiwan Military Intelligence Bureau members.” One think tank member in Beijing told CNA privately that it is not surprising that the official media aired this type of program because of the ongoing tension between Taiwan and the mainland. Recently Al Jazeera aired a news piece about certain political groups in Taiwan that receive financial support from the mainland. Therefore CCTV’s coverage on mainland students spying for Taiwan can be viewed as a “reasonable” counterattack from Beijing.

Source: Central News Agency, September 15, 2018
http://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/201809150204-1.aspx

China and the Vatican recently made a historical breakthrough in their relations. They reached an interim agreement wherein the Holy See acknowledged the seven bishops that the Communist China appointed. Analysts said that this is a victory for Beijing and will inevitably have an impact on the relationship between the Vatican and Taiwan.

Previously, the Pope did not recognize the bishops that the Chinese government appointed. Although this interim agreement does not mention diplomatic relations, it is generally believed that this will improve the relationship between Beijing and the Holy See. Since 1951, the two countries diplomatic relations have been severed. In recent years, Taiwan has been maneuvering on an increasingly difficult diplomatic stage. The impact is obvious. At present, the Vatican is one of Taiwan’s 17 remaining countries with diplomatic ties. It is the only one in Europe.

Some believers worry that the new agreement will cause Taiwan to lose the Vatican as its most important diplomatic ally. Many experts also agree with this view.

Jonathan Sullivan, director of the China Policy Institute at the University of Nottingham, described the accord as “a strategic move on China’s part; and a naive one on the Vatican’s.”

YING Fuk Tsang, a theology professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said that Beijing will inevitably use all means to seek recognition from the Holy See. He said that if China succeeds, it will be a major blow to Taiwan’s diplomacy.

Cardinal Joseph Zen, the outspoken former bishop of Hong Kong, accused Vatican officials of “selling out” ahead of Saturday’s agreement. In a blog posted shortly after the announcement he raised concern over its impact.

The cardinal wrote, “What will the (Chinese) government say to Catholics in China? ‘Obey us. The Holy See is already in agreement with us?’”

Recently underground churches in China have been raided, bulldozers have torn them down, or they were asked to hang China’s national flag. Religious materials have been confiscated and the clergy has been pressured to reveal personal information about believers to the authorities.

An underground clergyman said that they were afraid because the Sino-Vatican provisional agreement did not mention any measures of protection that would be available for them and their followers. One priest said that believers “have doubts about the government’s sincerity.”

Source: Deutsche Welle Chinese, September 23, 2018
https://p.dw.com/p/35MA3

It has been reported that China and the Vatican will soon sign a bishop appointment agreement. Members of the underground church responded with dissatisfaction. Some question whether the government will need to approve the content of the future priest’s sermons; some priests expressed that if there is no underground church, they will quit being priests.

The expectation was that, with the deal inked at the end of the month, Beijing would recognize the Pope as head of China’s Catholics in return for the Vatican’s recognition of excommunicated Chinese bishops. In addition, the Pope also has a veto power over the appointment of Chinese bishops and China will promote the integration of the official church and the underground church.

Some Chinese underground churches believe that the appointment of bishops is one of the most important and sacred powers of the Holy See. The Pope sharing this power with an atheistic government is not in line with Catholic teachings. Moreover, the Vatican’s move may be seen as the acquiescence to Beijing’s increasingly austere religious policy.

One priest from an underground church in Shanghai said that, “It’s impossible that China and Vatican could reach an agreement” on the grounds that the Chinese Communists oppose foreign forces from interfering in religious affairs, but in the event of an agreement, “I don’t need to be a priest since there will be no underground church.”

A Beijing Catholic Church member questioned whether the content of the priest’s preaching would require government approval. He feared that this would lead to the splitting of the Catholic Church. At present, in the officially recognized churches in China, the content of the sermon of a pastor or a priest must be submitted for official approval beforehand.

Although the Vatican may wish to use this agreement to guarantee the religious rights of Catholic Church members in China, China’s ultimate goal is to establish diplomatic relations with the Vatican, digging away Taiwan’s last diplomatic ally in Europe.

Zhang Ming, a professor at Renmin University of China, said that the compromise between the mainland and the Vatican was “more importantly in consideration of Taiwan.” As long as the bishop’s appointment deal is negotiated, the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries “will have no major obstacles.”

Source: Central News Agency, September 16, 2018
http://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/201809160143-1.aspx

The Malaysian online Chinese news site Seehua recently reported that the China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Company (CPP) officially announced that it received notification from the Malaysia government that three Chinese oil and gas pipeline projects (MPP, TSGP and Petronas) were formally closed. CPP respected the Malaysian decision, which is based on economic and financial reasons, and the two parties will discuss fair and reasonable compensation arrangements. These three projects all completed only less than 15 percent of the work but most of the payments had been made to China. Some projects are still under investigation. The Malaysian Ministry of Finance paused two of the three projects in July. The new Malaysian administration had delivered on over 20 campaign promises (around 35 percent) in its first 100 days in power.

Source: Seehua, September 12, 2018
http://news.seehua.com/?p=390964

The China-Russia Investment Forum held a meeting on September 15. Wang Feng, chairman of the China-Russia Regional Cooperation and Development Investment Fund, said at the meeting that the Fund has the potential for 100 some major projects including infrastructure and nuclear technology.

The total scale of the Fund is expected to be 100 billion yuan (US$ 14.6 billion), with a first phase of 10 billion yuan (US$ 1.5 billion).

The focus of the investments will be infrastructure, nuclear technology, the modern service industry, natural resources, clean energy, and agriculture.

The fund set up a policy steering committee which is composed of representatives from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and the Central Bank. It provides macro guidance on fund investment operations, makes recommendations on key areas of fund investment, and coordinates and resolves major issues.

The initiative to establish the fund was part of the proposals made in the July 2017 Joint Statement between China and Russia on Further Deepening the China-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination, as well as an explicit requirement of the joint communique of the 22nd China-Russia Prime Ministers’ Regular Meeting in November 2017. It is included in the list of results of the “Belt and Road” International Cooperation Summit Forum in May 2017.

In June 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission of China approved the establishment of the fund. Led by the China National Power Investment Group Co., the China National Nuclear Industry Group Co. and the China Overseas Development Association were among the founding sponsors. On August 21, 2018, the Fund’s General Partnership Company and the Fund Management Co., Ltd. were formally incorporated in Shenzhen. The investors in the fund in the first phase included more than 10 organizations, including state banks, state-owned enterprises, financial institutions, and local governments.

Source: Sputnik News, September 15, 2018
http://sputniknews.cn/economics/201809151026361106/

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) News Chinese Edition recently reported that China has blocked its website since the day after Australia banned Huawei and ZTE from participating in the national 5G communications infrastructure initiative. In the past Chinese readers could freely access ABC NewsChinese Edition via its website and mobile app without blockage from China’s “Great Firewall.” Under high pressure, the Chinese government explained that China’s internet is always “sufficiently open.” However, “some foreign websites” may be banned if the content violates Chinese laws, such as distributing information promoting pornography, gambling, and activities threatening Chinese national security. There was no example of any content in ABC News that met such criteria. In the meantime, other Australian news websites are still accessible from within China. ABC News English Edition is occasionally available in China. ABC News is a public broadcasting organization established under the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Act of 1983.

Source: ABC News Chinese, September 3, 2018
http://www.abc.net.au/chinese/2018-09-03/china-censors-abc-websites-in-china/10194504

According to an article that Deutsche Welle published, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will complete its operational preparations for a “full military attack against Taiwan” by 2020.” This is the main conclusion from the “Report on the Military Power of the Chinese Communist Party” that the Taiwan Defense Ministry recently submitted. The report pointed out that “unifying Taiwan” remains a constant mission for Beijing. If any of the following possibilities becomes a reality, it will trigger China’s attack of Taiwan: Taiwan explicitly declares independence, Taiwan has internal turmoil, Taiwan’s acquires nuclear weapons, a delay occurs in the peaceful cross-strait dialogue, foreign forces’ get involved in Taiwan affairs, or foreign troops are stationed in Taiwan. However, the report also mentioned that, currently, the mainland is still limited by Taiwan’s geographic environment, landing vehicles, and insufficient logistical capabilities and does not have the full combat capability to carry out the military action.

According to the Deutsche Welle article, in April of this year, the Taiwan Democracy Foundation announced its annual poll. The data showed that, if the mainland military force attacked Taiwan because Taiwan issued a declaration of independence, 55 percent of the people would be willing or very willing to defend Taiwan and 35.9 percent of the population would not. If the mainland unified Taiwan by force, 67.7 percent of the people would be willing to fight to defend Taiwan, and 24.9 percent would not be willing.

Source: Deutsche Welle, September 1, 2018
https://p.dw.com/p/348cI