Geo-Strategic Trend - 163. page

On April 28, Huangqiu published an editorial article on the relationship between China and North Korea. Below is the translation of a few key points from the article.
1) The relationship between China and North Korea has gotten worse. Since King Jong Un became the top leader, there have been no meetings between the top leaders of the two countries. Even though a diplomatic exchange between the two remains open, little strategic trust is left and a serious communication barrier exists between the two.
2) As tension in the situation on Korean Peninsula is increasing, the relationship between China and North Korea could get worse. Pyongyang might openly criticize Beijing or make unfriendly moves. China should be prepared for this.
3) Some Chinese residents are concerned that, as the relationship between China and North Korea gets worse, China will lose its bargaining advantage with South Korea and the U. S. It will also miss the strategic shield in North East Asia. We should be aware that, at this moment, North Korea has a direct conflict of interest with China’s national strategic interest. In the long term, there is no doubt that China still has control over the relationship between these two countries. As long as North Korea gives up on nuclear weapons, these two countries can easily go back to the normal relationship that they had before. Beijing can encourage Pyongyang to loosen up on its attitude on nuclear weapons. However if Pyongyang keeps pushing the conflicts to the irrational edge, China has the ability to be in charge of the situation completely so as to protect China’s national security.
4) Frankly speaking, “double suspension” is the ultimate goal for China. China does not have much of a bargaining chip to pressure the U.S. and South Korea. We need to be very clear with the U.S. and South Korea that China is not the key party in resolving North Korea nuclear issues. China will not use the interest of the U.S. and South Korea to set its policy towards North Korea. The U.S. and South Korea should line up their thoughts close to ours rather than try to use theirs to overpower ours. Beijing wishes to find a common ground that benefits all party’s interests and advocacy. If this fails, the solution to the situation on the Korean Peninsula has to be put on table. China is not afraid of North Korea nor does it fear the U.S. and South Korea. We have enough power to fight back against any parties that will cross the red line of China’s national interest.

Source: Huanqiu, April 28, 2017
http://opinion.huanqiu.com/editorial/2017-04/10555354.html

Several Chinese media reported that, on April 21, the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea’s state media, published a commentary to criticize China. The article, titled, “Have the Nerve to Follow the Crowd?” did not mention China’s name directly, but it can be inferred to refer China.

The article stated, “Recently, a neighboring country of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) stayed quiet when the U.S. gathered an unprecedented military force around the Korean Peninsula and pushed the area to the verge of war, while it openly expressed the ‘taking of necessary actions’ against North Korea’s self-defense measures.

“That country even boasted that the DPRK would not (be able to) withstand ‘someone’s‘ economic sanctions and should re-consider how important (it is to maintain) the relationship with it. It could provide the needed support and help for North Korea’s security and economic development.

“On April 18, it claimed in its media that Pyongyang’s nuclear missile plan turned the U.S., its former enemy, into its collaborator.

“What should North Korea call it from now on? And how should North Korea treat it?

“North Korea’s soldiers and its people built its self-defense nuclear deterrent power at a great sacrifice in order to defend its national sovereignty. It is not for trade. …

“If it miscalculates the DPRK’s will, follows the other people, and insists on economic sanctions against North Korea, it may get some appreciation from the DPRK’s enemies, but it must prepare mentally for the disastrous consequences of (ruining) its relationship with the DPRK.”

Global Times, one of China’s state media, in its report, “North Korea Threatened to Sink the US Aircraft Carrier, Calling It a Plump Perverted Animal,” mentioned this article and referred to it as a criticism of China.

Source:
1. CanadaMeet, April 22, 2017
http://www.iask.ca/news/world/2017/04/431066.html
2. Huanqiu, April 24, 2017
http://world.huanqiu.com/exclusive/2017-04/10526651.html

The primary Taiwanese news agency CNA (The Central News Agency) recently reported that the Mainland’s Ministry of Environmental Protection sent internal orders to environment monitoring stations in Northeast China to establish 24-hour on-duty monitoring schedules for radioactive pollution signs. The scope of the internal orders covers the provinces of Jilin, Liaoning, Tianjin, Hebei and Shandong. According to leaked internal information, the Chinese government expected the upcoming sixth North Korean nuclear test to be several times the scale of the fifth. There is a good possibility that the North Koreans may test some new technologies, which have a higher risk of failure. Also, over 200 high ranking military officials were called to report to the Northern Military Theater Joint Command Center. The Military Theater has already come up with several detailed combat plans to respond to the North Korean crisis.

Source: CNA, April 17, 2017
http://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/201704170219-1.aspx

On March 19, China’s famous Korean War historian Shen Zhihua gave a lecture at the Dalian Foreign Language University. Shen expressed in the lecture that China has screwed up its North Korean policy. He believes that North Korea is China’s potential enemy.

Shen Zhihua recommended that China should abandon the soured brotherhood myth (with North Korea), give up its support for North Korea, and turn to South Korea.

He believes that, judging from the current situation, North Korea is China’s potential enemy, whereas South Korea may be China’s friend. He also said that China and North Korea are not comrades anymore. Sino-Korean relations cannot be improved in the short term.

Shen stressed that intimate Sino-Korean relations are the product of the Cold War. After several decades of confrontation and the change in the international environment, this relationship has changed. Once the Korean Peninsula war breaks out because of the DPRK nuclear issue, China and South Korea will eventually bear the greatest consequences, although the United States and the DPRK are the responsible parties.

Shen Zhihua’s view sparked the anger of Chinese super-nationalists who accused him of betraying China’s ally with his attitude toward Pyongyang. China’s national news media did not cover his views and the related debates.

Shen said that, so far, his views have been tolerated, indicating that the government may be willing to tolerate greater criticism of North Korea, as well as a debate on Sino-DPRK relations. However, Shen Zhihua also admitted that a change in direction toward the DPRK may harbor risk.

It is noteworthy that, despite China’s implementation of the United Nations sanctions against the DPRK, China’s imports from North Korea in the first quarter increased by 10.8 percent year on year. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said at a regular press conference that, although China will adhere to the sanctions resolution, outside of the sanctions framework, China also maintains a “normal relationship” with North Korea.

Source: Duowei News, April 19, 2017
http://global.dwnews.com/news/2017-04-19/59811385.html

Global Times recently reported that China has approved a proposal to increase its investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to around US$62 billion. When the project was first kicked off, the original investment level was US$46 billion. There was one increase to US$55 billion. Pakistani officials also revealed the information at an infrastructure investment conference. According to the Economic Corridor Plan, most of these investments will be spent in the areas of electricity generation and distribution. The newly approved additional investments will be directed to various different industries, including constructing industrial parks. At the same time, talks are still underway to include the City Ring Railway of Karachi within the scope (of its investments).

Source: Global Times, April 14, 2017
http://oversea.huanqiu.com/article/2017-04/10474542.html