Geo-Strategic Trend – Page 192

EU Chamber of Commerce: Golden Age of Doing Business with China is Ending

Well-known Chinese news site Sina recently reported that the European Union’s Chamber of Commerce just released its annual report on the state of the EU-China business relationship. In its report, the Chamber questioned how trustworthy China will be in keeping its promise to let the market play a decisive role in the economy. The report warned that the Communist country must speed up on the delivery of its promise of reform or the world’s second largest economy will see a landslide in its growth rate. The Chamber suggested that “the golden age of doing business with China is about to end.” The report expressed the belief that the window of opportunity for rebalancing the Chinese economy is closing. In the meantime, the Chamber had doubts about whether, during the process, foreign companies will be treated fairly or not. It also expressed concern about the role that state-owned companies will play. The Chamber’s report from last year already showed that only 44 percent of the EU companies saw a growth in their profits in China.

Source: Sina, September 10, 2014

http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/20140910/145320255115.shtml

Briefings | | September 16, 2014 | Geo-Strategic Trend

Xi Jinping met Putin: China and Russia Should Support and Back Each Other

According to Xinhua News Agency, when Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Tajik capital of Dushanbe on September 11, Xi told Putin that the Sino-Russian bilateral relationship between the two countries and their cooperation in a number of fields was strong. He recommended that the two sides strengthen their mutual support, expand opening up to each other, and back each other up so they can jointly cope with external risks and challenges in order to achieve the grand goal of each country’s own development and rejuvenation.

Source: Xinhua, September 12, 2014

http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2014-09/12/c_1112448800.htm

Briefings | | September 12, 2014 | Geo-Strategic Trend

Tajikistan’s Growing Dependence on Beijing

On September 9, Xinhua quoted a report from the Russian newspaper Independent (Независимая газета) that China is becoming Tajikistan’s most important economic and strategic partner.

The article, titled, "Tajikistan Is Becoming China’s Important Client in Raw Materials" stated, "Today, Beijing is one of Dushanbe’s [the capital of Tajikistan] top three trading partners. During 2011, bilateral trade exceeded US$2 billion. Dushanbe believes that this is not the upper limit."

"Xinjiang is treated as one of the future directions of the two sides for expanding trade cooperation. Emomalii Rahmon (the President of Tajikistan) said in an interview, that he hoped to reach an agreement on the Tajikistan-Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) subcommittee on economic and trade cooperation during his talks with Chinese leaders. One cannot rule out that the plan will be implemented, as China regards Tajikistan as Xinjiang’s energy supplier."

"Tajikistan also hopes to participate in supplying natural gas to China. The Central Asia gas pipeline will go through Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Dushanbe wants to pump the natural gas from the Bokhtar field into the pipeline. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and the French Total oil company have started to develop this field. Experts from the two companies said that Tajikistan is likely to become the region’s second-largest supplier of natural gas to China."

"Last year, China won the right to develop the Zeravshan gold mine. In 2007, China’s Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd (紫金矿业公司) acquired the Zeravshan Gold Company. In 2013, Zijin invested US$60 million in gold mining. Last year, Tajikistan received a US$140 million long-term loan from China. The funding will ensure the increased production of gold. In addition to gold, China also paid special attention to lead and zinc."

"China’s agriculture encountered little significant competition in Tajikistan. When local farmers traveled to Russia for the Gold Rush, Chinese farmers came to cultivate the land. The Ministry of Agriculture of Tajikistan leased land to Chinese farmers. The Ministry explained that there is a lack of domestic farming capacity, and that cotton-planted lands are no longer suitable for other crops. The Chinese have the technology to restore the salts to the soil. Their Tajikistan grown products will be sold locally."

"In recent years, China’s investment in Tajikistan approached US$500 million (about 3.07 billion yuan); its loans were about US$1 billion (about 6.14 billion yuan). Beijing is becoming a generous and important source of finance for a number of projects in Tajikistan. Tajikistan’s growing economic dependence on China is not only the key for Beijing to access natural resources, but also a tool for political pressure."

Source: Xinhua, September 9, 2014

http://news.xinhuanet.com/cankao/2014-09/09/c_133630666.htm

Briefings | | September 11, 2014 | Geo-Strategic Trend

People’s Daily: France Should Not Flip-Flop on Russian Arms Sales

People’s Daily carried a commentary article questioning France’s decision to suspend the delivery of its first Mistral-class amphibious assault ship to Russia. The article said that the French authorities’ decision is rather surprising [disappointing].

The article stated, “On whether to carry out the contract to provide Russia the amphibious assault ship, the French authorities had been resisting pressure from the United States and some Western countries. … However, France recently made a 180-degree U-turn. This is primarily because of sustained pressure from the United States. Of course, it is also related to the Russia and Ukraine relations, which started deteriorating some time ago. As can be seen, the French authorities also wanted to use it to exert influence on the Kremlin’s decision makers.”

The article commented, “In the past, France has been implementing a "de Gaulle" independent foreign policy. Even when the leftist former President Francois Mitterrand was in power, this policy did not change. Now France has to play America’s tune, has become indecisive on major decisions, and has even backtracked. People cannot help but worry about the future of French Foreign Policy.”

Source: People’s Daily, September 9, 2014

http://world.people.com.cn/n/2014/0909/c1002-25627747.html

Briefings | | September 11, 2014 | Geo-Strategic Trend

China Review News: It Is Urgent for China to Develop an Aggressive Maritime Strategy

On September 4, 2014, China Review News published an editorial commentary titled, “It Is Urgent for China to Develop an Aggressive Maritime Strategy.” The commentary viewed the United States as the top obstructionist hindering China’s rise. “The purpose of the United States’ ‘Return to Asia’ strategy is to counterbalance China in order to ensure the Asia-Pacific security system. To do this, it takes advantage of the disputes between China and its surrounding countries and uses China’s neighboring countries’ forces (to act together to go against China).” The commentary asserted that the United States has constantly been making trouble so as to contain China’s rise and to let China’s neighboring countries rely on US protection. “America’s ‘Return to Asia’ strategy has undoubtedly encouraged China’s neighbors to challenge China more boldly in their maritime disputes and even take risky actions against China.”

The commentary suggested that China should be more aggressive. In the disputes in the South China Sea, “China should target Vietnam as a main breakthrough country. It should increase its efforts to crack down on Vietnam through economic, diplomatic, and other means. Scaring Vietnam can achieve the effect of “striking at the mountain to frighten the tiger.” As for the dispute with Japan on the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku Islands), the commentary suggests China should use the same aggressive strategy to crack down on Japan so as to scare the Philippines and Vietnam.

Source: China Review News, September 4, 2014
http://hk.crntt.com/doc/1032/8/1/3/103281309.html?coluid=136&kindid=4710&docid=103281309&mdate=0904000620

Briefings | | September 10, 2014 | Geo-Strategic Trend

BBC Chinese: China Appreciates That South Africa Declined the Dalai Lama’s Visa Request

BBC Chinese recently reported that the spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs gave high praise to South Africa because of the fact that South Africa refused the Dalai Lama’s visa request. The Dalai Lama was planning to attend the Nobel Prize Winners’ Summit in Cape Town, South Africa. South Africa has had four Nobel Prize winners on the basis of human rights, including former South African President Nelson Mandela. The Dalai Lama’s representative stated that the South African government called him and told him that they could not issue the visa since it might “interfere” with the relationship between South Africa and China. China stated that South Africa “took the right position.” China is South Africa’s largest trade partner. In the year 2012, the trade volume between the two countries reached $21 billion.

Source: BBC Chinese, September 5, 2014

http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/china/2014/09/140905_china_safrica.shtml

Briefings | | September 9, 2014 | Geo-Strategic Trend

People’s Daily: Radical Opposition Groups are the Major Roadblock to Democracy in Hong Kong

On September 5, an opinion article appeared on People’s Daily called, "Radical Opposition Groups are the Major Roadblock to Democracy in Hong Kong."

The article stated, "One can draw three conclusions. First, British colonial rule is not compatible with democracy. Basically, the development of democracy in Hong Kong got off the ground after the transfer of sovereignty. Second, the central government is an important driving force for the development of democracy in Hong Kong. The basic political framework of ‘one country, two systems; Hong Kong being governed by the people of Hong Kong’; and the Basic Law are the cornerstone of Hong Kong’s democratic governance. Third, democracy in Hong Kong is developing steadily and swiftly. If the Legislative Council of the SAR Government approves the reform package, Hong Kong will achieve universal suffrage in 2017."

"However, while speaking highly of the development of democracy in Hong Kong, we should also see that the development of democracy in Hong Kong still faces considerable difficulties and obstacles. One obstacle is that Hong Kong’s few political forces are resisting the central government’s governance rights."

"After reunification, the vast majority of people in Hong Kong have had a high degree of recognition that they are Chinese. However, since British colonial rule lasted a hundred years, there are still a small number of political forces holding a mentality of exclusion and confrontation against the central government. A handful of politicians even still regard the United Kingdom as their mother country, with a hope that the United Kingdom and other Western countries will interfere with Hong Kong’s politics. Although these political forces are few in number, with overseas support, they still have considerable political energy."

"The issue facing our society today is not whether to develop democracy, because democracy in Hong Kong has embarked on a road of rapid development. Anyone who blocks the development of democracy will be unpopular. The problem is that some political forces expect to mislead the quest for democracy in Hong Kong society by confronting the central authorities. If Hong Kong cannot achieve a high degree of consensus on the issue of national identity, the election of Chief Executive by universal suffrage in 2017 is likely to abort and the development of democracy in Hong Kong will be undermined. In order to achieve universal suffrage in 2017, we must prevent the radical opposition from creating social divisions on the issue of national identity, so that Hong Kong’s democratic politics can move forward within the framework of the Chinese Constitution and the Basic Law."

Source: People’s Daily, September 5, 2014

http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2014-09/05/nw.D110000renmrb_20140905_8-05.htm

Briefings | | September 5, 2014 | Geo-Strategic Trend

Yellow Book: India and Pakistan Top Picks for the Expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

On September 5, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences issued the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Yellow Book (2014), a book which analyses the current international and regional situations that the SCO faces. The Yellow Book pointed out that, when various conditions are close to mature, China can consider discussing the expansion of the SCO with Member States and that a consensus with the member states is still needed for a number of important issues.

"First, the SCO’s legal basis should be reinforced. The rules of the game should be designed without compromising the fundamental interests of member states. The more member states, the more difficult it will be to achieve a consensus and change the rules of the game. The SCO should perfect its legal system as soon as possible so as to lay a solid legal foundation for the organization’s sustainable development."

"Second, the number of members should be expanded in stages, with a good grasp of the conditions and timing. As mentioned earlier, as the conditions mature for India and Pakistan to become SCO member states, they should be the first choices for SCO expansion. In the past, the SCO did not consider Iran. It was correct from a strategic perspective, but the SCO should maintain close cooperation with Iran, push Iran out of its ‘nuclear trap,’ and create conditions for its formal participation in the SCO."

"The SCO can also consider expanding its members to include the level of observer members, with Turkey as a candidate to be an observer member state. Turkey is a NATO member, but not an EU member. Culturally it is different from the West and is in an embarrassing situation because the West does not fully recognize it. Although it is a country with Muslims as the majority, Turkey is a secular state. Despite Turkey’s close ties with the West, It has shown quite good independence, aggressiveness, and flexibility in diplomatic affairs. Geographically, Turkey is in both Europe and Asia. It is an important gateway for China to reach Europe through Central Asia and West Asia. To include Turkey as an observer member (when conditions are mature, the SCO can absorb it as a full member) is conducive to regional stability and economic development."

"Through SCO negotiations, countries that are willing to join the SCO should accept SCO Charters and all of its founding legal documents and accept the ‘Shanghai Spirit’ advocated by the SCO. This helps the SCO maintain consistent positions on major international issues and improve operational efficiency.

The Yellow Book believes that, after gradually expanding member states, the SCO will gradually become an important platform for China to engage in regional security and economic cooperation and multi-cultural exchanges with relevant countries. The "Silk Road economic zone," stability and development in Afghanistan, energy and financial cooperation, the strike on "three forces" and other major issues will become the focus of SCO.