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Qiushi Theory: The World’s Political Environment: A Long-term, Complex, and Serious Test

Huang Renwei, the deputy dean of the International School of Economics and Politics at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS) and deputy director of the Center for International Strategic Studies, wrote an article for Qiushi Theory titled “Deepen Our Realization of the Long-term, Complex, and Serious Test in Facing the World’s Political Environment.”

The article attributed the current situation to the shift in the world’s power that occurred after the world economic crisis in 2008 resulted in the weakening of the national power of such Western giants as the U.S., the EU, and Japan. The article said that while those Western giants still lead in the high tech, military and media industries, many have “adjusted their strategy to shift the conflicts and reduce their economic burden while using both soft and hard means to suppress socialist and developing countries in order to maintain the old political and economic order.”

It further stated that the models and ideologies that the Western developed countries adopted are “not only impossible for China to follow, but also show the uncertainty of their own future.” The article used the economic crisis in the US, the debt crisis in the EU, and the nuclear power leak in Japan as examples and said that they “exposed the inferiority and deadly weakness in their models and ideologies.”

The author also pointed out that the West has not done any self-reflection on its own issues and still uses its powerful media, Internet, and NGOs to attack developing countries and even "dreams of lighting up the ‘democratic fire’ in China that come from the turmoil in western Asia and northern Africa.” It noted that the Western courntries have been using their "universal values" to undermine the ideology and cultural values that are not part of their own system. "They use the Internet, email, microblogs, texting, games, TV, and movies to directly influence and win over the next generation. … They even form opposition groups to stir up riots in order overthrow political power.”

The article concluded that the Party’s leadership is the key to guaranteeing control in maintaining China’s peaceful development. “If we are clear headed, follow the new development, increase our strategic predictability, fully utilize the political advantage of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, and manage our internal and external affairs well, we are guaranteed to have firm control over China’s peaceful development.”

Source: Qiushi Theory, October 16, 2011
http://www.qstheory.cn/zxdk/2011/201120/201110/t20111014_116665.htm

Chinese Military Expert: U.S. Competes with China over its Military Influence in Asia Pacific

Huanqiu published an opinion article written by Han Xudong, a professor at China’s National Defense University, on the military competition between the U.S. and China.

According to Han, the U.S. has been fighting with China over its military influence in the Asia Pacific region on issues including the Korean Peninsula, the sale of arms to Taiwan, and the South China Sea. Han claimed that the U.S. and China are demonstrating their military muscle in different ways. The U.S. plan to build a super military base in Guam and expand its sale of arms to Asian Pacific countries is an indication of its effort to increase its presence in the region. As for China, it will increase its military cooperation, including military exercises, with countries in the region. In the mean time, China’s major effort will be to "increase the admission of more foreign students from the Asia Pacific region and spread the Chinese military security ideology to these students."

Source: Huanqiu, October 16,2011
http://opinion.huanqiu.com/roll/2011-10/2085125.html

Red Flag Manuscript: The U.S.’ Strategy of Influencing Public Opinion in the Post Cold War Era

[Editor’s Note: An article published in Red Flag Manuscript, a periodical of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee, discussed the U.S. strategy on international public opinion. The author is with the International Strategic Research Institute of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Party School. "The United States’ central position on global public opinion has led the U.S. to place a high value on the role of public opinion. In different periods of history, the United States always had a clear strategy on international public opinion. The goal was to influence and control other countries through the power of its media and to maintain U.S. supremacy in the world." The complete article is translated below.] [1]

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Qiushi: Lessons from the Former Soviet Union’s Lack of Control

Li Shenming, the Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), published an article in Qiushi on the lessons to be learned from the experience of the former Soviet Union. The failure of the former Soviet Union to effectively solve the problem of underground publications, dissidents, and informal organizations may have contributed to its downfall.

Initially, the works that were published underground were merely some censored poems and literary works. Later underground publications started to include political contents that were critical of the existing government. The publishing center in Moscow became the center of a “liberal democratic movement.” Dissidents were exceptionally active during the Gorbachev period. The Soviet authorities not only restored their reputations, but also encouraged and supported them in various political activities. Sakharov is a classic example. The first "informal organization" appeared in 1986. They usually were small, secretive, unofficial, flexible, and run by amateurs. As Gorbachev condoned these organizations, their publications become the media pioneers of the anti-socialist and anti-communist movement.

Source: Qiushi, October 11, 2011
http://www.qstheory.cn/zz/zgtsshzyll/201110/t20111011_115583.htm

Colonel Ruo Ruan: Three Reasons for Japan’s Involvement in South Sea Issues

In an interview with People’s Daily, Colonel Luo Ruan, deputy secretary of the China Association for Military Sciences, commented on Japan’s recent statement that Japan is increasing its cooperation with the Philippines and other South East Asian countries on South Sea issues. Luo said that the following three factors enter into Japan’s involvement in the South Sea: 1). Economic interests. The rich oil in the South Sea can boost Japan’s energy resources, which is what Japan dreams about. 2). Strategic geographic interests. The South Sea is an important strategic location connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Japan is heavily dependent on the South Sea for the transportation of both its imports and exports. Japan believes that if China controls the South Sea route, Japan’s economic development will be under China’s control. 3). Strategic security interests. Japan hopes to utilize the South Sea conflict to reduce the pressure it faces in the East Sea and the Senkaku islands.

Luo said that for Japan, as a Northeast Asian country, to actively get into the South Sea conflict is an act of reckless expansion. It violates Japan’s Peace Constitution, and also violates the international laws that restrict its expansion.

Source: People’s Daily, October 13, 2011
http://military.people.com.cn/GB/15881711.html

Huanqiu: Chinese RMB Appreciation Would Reduce the U.S. to a Second Class Country

Huanqiu published an article titled “If the Chinese RMB Were to Appreciate Significantly, the United States Would Be Reduced to a Second Class Country.” The author, Tang Chunfeng, is a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under China’s Ministry of Commerce. Tang stated that the following would happen if the RMB exchange rate with the U.S. dollar were 1:1. China’s GDP would be close to three times that of the U.S. thus making it the No. 1 power in the world. The Chinese RMB would become the major currency for international trade settlement and for foreign exchange reserves. As the currency of the largest debt holder, the supply of RMB would be greater than domestic demand and China would become the “central bank” of the world. The value of overseas assets that Chinese owned would surpass that of Japan. China would finance its overseas investments with a zero interest rate. Today’s employees working for foreign bosses would be business owners bossing around their foreign employees. As the United States lost its economic power, humiliation and blows would ensue. Its Empire State Building and key industries might have to be sold. Even the Capitol and the White House might possibly be used to obtain mortgages to pay for its debts.

Source: Huanqiu, October 3, 2011
http://finance.huanqiu.com/roll/2011-10/2080072.html

Huanqiu: Breaking Up the Coalition on the South Chinese Sea

Huanqiu published a special commentary on the new coalition of Vietnam, India, the Philippines, and Japan. The article stated that the driving force behind the coalition came from Vietnam and the Philippines and that regardless of what China does, they will not back down. The U.S. and Japan are really reluctant to come to a wide-reaching impasse with China. India, ambitious as it may be, is not mature; it has low productivity and tends to act on impulse. “Based on the foregoing, to ‘shelve the dispute and jointly develop,’ we must dare to dispute and to develop. … Only if China draws an ‘insurmountable red line’ on key principles and demonstrates the power and resolve to defend that red line will other countries weigh the pros and cons and become prudent. Then the coalition will vanish."

Source: Huanqiu, reprinted by Xinhua, October 7, 2011
http://news.xinhuanet.com/herald/2011-10/07/c_131176474.htm

A China-built Indonesian Power Plant Completed

Xinhua reported that a China-built 3×330MW power plant was completed on October 12, 2011, in Indramayu, a city in the West Java province of Indonesia. Three companies, China National Electric Engineering Co., Ltd. (CNEEC), China National Machinery Industry Group (CNMIG), and Indonesian PENTA, formed the consortium that contracted to complete the project. 

The power plant is one of the ten 10 million-kilowatt power stations that the Indonesian government has planned to alleviate the domestic power shortage. According to Xinhua, “the successful completion of the project will greatly ease the power shortage in the local region, help advance Indonesia’s social and economic development, and improve people’s living standards.” CNEEC, established in 1979 and wholly owned by CNMIG, is a company specializing in the construction of thermal and hydropower generation, power transmission, clean energy, and other energy projects.
Source: Xinhua, October 12, 2011
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2011-10/12/c_122150107.htm