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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Where Did China’s Newly-Printed Money Go?

A posting on social platform X discussed why the record high of 28 trillion yuan (US$4 trillion) currency that China issued in 2023 didn’t lead to the expect result of boosting economy:

The excess currency, primarily intended to circulate through loans, encountered a lack of demand. Individuals and businesses refrained from borrowing, causing the money to passively flow back, resulting in passive deleveraging. Traditionally, a significant portion of loans flowed into real estate which would drive up development and consumption. But this time the reduced demand (and the dismal projected return) for property purchases and land acquisitions led to idle funds in commercial banks. Consequently, most of the 28 trillion yuan were returned to China’s central bank. The government became the primary borrower, with local governments issuing new city investment bonds to replace old bonds approaching maturity. The total amount of investment bonds issued by city governments in China now exceeds 65 trillion yuan.

Source: Twitter, @TheXiangYang

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

PLA Hong Kong Garrison Conducts Joint Patrol Exercise

On December 27, 2023, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Hong Kong Garrison conducted a joint patrol exercise. The joint patrol involved high-mobility infantry, naval vessels, helicopters, and various other military branches of China’s army, navy, and air force. It focused on refining the troops’ capabilities in rapid planning, emergency deployment, handling special situations, and conducting joint operations.

Source: Xinhua, December 27, 2023
http://www.news.cn/gangao/20231227/8759ce089d364ec8ac9488b6c4bfbe31/c.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Near One Billion Chinese Have Per-Capita Disposable Income Less Than 2,000 Yuan Per Month

The Chinese government recently released data on income distribution within the Chinese populace. One data point said that 964 million people in China have monthly income less than 2,000 Yuan (US $282). This statistic sparked hot discussion on the internet. The news followed a statement in 2020 by Li Keqiang, China’s former premier, that about 600 million Chinese people have monthly income less than 1,000 Yuan (US $141). The data were gathered by the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission’s Department of Employment, Income Distribution and Consumption as well as the China Institute of Income Distribution at Beijing Normal University.

All the major mouthpieces of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) remained silent on this topic, as the data makes the CCP look bad. NetEase, a major internet portal in China, published an article to “clarify the issue,” i.e. to make the picture look less dismal. It stated that the statistic regarding 964 million people’s income did not pertain to their monthly income but rather to their per-capita monthly disposable income. Per-capita figures are averaged across a larger number of people, including those who are not active in the workforce (the actual number of working people in China is reportedly less than 900 million).

Editor’s Note: Even if the clarification published by NetEase is correct, a per-capita disposable income of less than $282 per month still means that these 964 million people, the majority of the Chinese populace, are near the poverty level struggling to make ends meet.

Source: NetEase, December 30, 2023
https://www.163.com/dy/article/IN6MM7PO0553XH85.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources

Beijing Postpones China-Japan-South Korea Summit so it can Focus on Taiwan’s Presidential Election

According to diplomatic sources cited by South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo, China has proposed postponing the upcoming China-Japan-South Korea Summit (previously scheduled for March 2024) as Beijing wants to prioritize monitoring Taiwan’s upcoming Presidential election (scheduled for January 13, 2024) and then focus on Taiwan-related issues during the following several months.

The last China-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit was held in Chengdu, China in 2019. Subsequent summits were canceled due to COVID. The three countries had planned to resume their trilateral summits in South Korea in 2023, but later decided to postpone until March 2024.

The meeting was expected to be attended by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

Source: Radio Taiwan International, December 31, 2023
https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2191394

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Supreme People’s Court Calls Out Use of Fake Lawsuits to Evade Debts

As China’s economy keeps sliding downwards, some Chinese individuals and companies have colluded with others to create fake lawsuits so that they would not have to pay back their debtors during the multi-year litigation period resulting from the lawsuits.

Recently, the Supreme People’s Court of China released information on typical criminal cases exemplifying this debt evasion practice. The highlighted instances illustrate several tactics used to cause delay in settlement of debts. Tactics include fake transfers of assets, fabricated facts hindering court-ordered execution of property, and interference in compulsory property execution.

Source: Xinhua, December 27, 2023
http://www.news.cn/legal/20231227/0ce1147ea9aa4d4c9df9d47a60b8dced/c.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China’s Population to Shrink Dramatically: Hunan Provincial Education Bureau

An on-line document, apparently issued by Hunan Provincial Education Bureau (document number [2023] 358), indicates that China is facing a dramatic decline in population. According to the document:

  • “Preschool population is rapidly declining compared with 2021, projected to decrease 33 percent by 2025 and 54 percent by 2030.”
  • “Elementary school population will decline in 2024, is expected to decrease 46 percent by 2030 and 62 percent by 2035.”
  • “Middle school population will peak in 2024, will decline by 2030, projected to decrease 53 percent by 2035.”
  • “High school population will peak in 2027, to start declining by 2033, and will drop 24 percent by 2035.”
  • “Research on measures such as ‘transferring surplus teachers’ is required.”

There are also comments saying that the situation in Hunan (a province in central China) is still relatively good; the population crisis is more severe in Northern, Eastern, and Northeastern China.

An independent incident would seem to lend credibility to the picture painted by this document: In July 2022, data on the national population were leaked from a database at the Shanghai Police Bureau, with only 970 million people reported living in China. This suggests that China’s claimed population of 1.4 billion may be far overstated.

Source: Aboluo, December 27, 2023
https://www.aboluowang.com/2023/1227/1996120.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

CNA: Huawei’s 5G Mobile Phone Production Capacity is Insufficient

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently ran an article on Huawei and its competitors in the Chinese mobile phone industry. Below are some key points from the article.

Huawei returned to the 5G space with the unexpected launch of its Mate 60 Pro mobile phone in August 2023. Although the mobile phone launch was very topical and triggered a frenzy of consumer activity, multiple data sources show that Huawei’s 5G handset production capacity is quite insufficient. Huawei’s “grand return to 5G” failed to break the pattern seen in China’s mobile phone market in 2023.

According to International Data Corporation (IDC), 28.71 million new smartphones were registered in the Chinese market in November 2023. Among them, Apple ranked first, with a market share of 21.1 percent; Xiaomi ranked second, with 18.3 percent; Huawei rose to 14 percent and ranked third; Vivo and OPPO ranked fifth and sixth with 13.4 percent and 13.1 percent respectively.

Counterpoint Research data showed that, in October 2023, the best-selling smartphone in China was not a Huawei product but rather the Apple iPhone 15 Pro Max, with a market share of 5 percent. The Huawei Mate 60 Pro phone ranked second with a 4 percent market share, and the smartphones ranked 3rd through 5th were also iPhones.

Tencent News said that, while players in the industry had regarded Huawei’s return to 5G speed as the biggest variable affecting the mobile phone industry in 2023, Huawei’s insufficient production capacity means that the competitive landscape in China has not shifted as much as anticipated. According to data from research institute Canalys, China’s smartphone market shipped 66.7 million units in the third quarter of 2023, with Huawei not being ranked among the top five in terms of shipments.

Source: CNA, December 29, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202312290278.aspx

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology

China’s Marriage Rate Among Young Persons Remains Low

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to the newly published “China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook 2023” compiled by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, late marriage has become a common phenomenon in China. By the end of year 2022, the rates of unmarried persons among various age groups are:

  • Around 51.3 percent are unmarried in the 25-29 age group,
  • 18.4 percent unmarried the 30-34 age group, and
  • 8 percent unmarried in the 35-39 age group.

The unmarried rate among 29-year-olds is 34 percent. In other words, about one in three 29-year-olds is unmarried.

Judging from the age structure of the married population in China since 2010, the age of marriage (and especially the age of first marriage) is now significantly older. China’s average first marriage age in 2020 is 28.67 years old, an increase of 3.78 years from the average first marriage age in 2010 (24.89 years old).

Competitive pressure for employment and longer years of education have resulted in delayed marriage and childbirth. In big cities, young people have a relatively high degree of independence in social life, which has also greatly affected the rate of marriage and age of marriage.

Source: Sina, December 28, 2023
https://news.sina.cn/gn/2023-12-28/detail-imzzqrrs7044951.d.html?vt=4&pos=108&his=0

Briefings | | |   Social Stability