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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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China Detains Alleged MI6 Spy

China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) announced on Monday (January 8th) that the head of a foreign consulting firm, surnamed Huang, was found to be spying for the British foreign intelligence agency MI6. According to MSS, Huang was recruited by MI6 in 2015 and established an “intelligence cooperation relationship” with them.

MSS claims that MI6 instructed Huang to enter China several times using his identity as a cover to collect China-related intelligence and identify potential recruits for MI6. Huang allegedly provided his MI6 handlers with “9 classified-level state secrets, 5 secret-level state secrets, and 3 intelligence reports.”

MSS states that MI6 provided Huang with professional intelligence training in the UK and equipped him with special espionage gear to facilitate intelligence gathering in China. Chinese national security authorities allegedly uncovered evidence of Huang’s espionage and have taken him into criminal custody. No further details (besides the surname) were provided regarding Huang’s identity, current status, or location. The MSS announcement did not elaborate on Huang’s background, which consulting firm Huang was running, or who his MI6 handlers were.

Source: Deutsche Welle, January 8, 2024
https://p.dw.com/p/4ayJ9

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Beijing Criticizes US Proclamation Cracking Down On Corruption, Accuses US of Harboring Corrupt Fugitives

On December 11, 2023, U.S. President Biden issued “A Proclamation on Suspension of Entry as Immigrants and Nonimmigrants of Persons Enabling Corruption.” On January 7th, Chinese state media outlet China Discipline Inspection and Monitoring News criticized this proclamation as U.S. “hypocrisy” and “double standards” on anti-corruption efforts. Its article reported that 20 of China’s most wanted fugitives are currently hiding in the U.S.

The article states that, in recent years, the U.S. has expanded the concept of national security “to justify long-arm jurisdiction and suppress its rivals, while perpetuating its own hegemony.” The report argues that U.S. anti-corruption efforts highlight hypocrisy and hegemonic goals, as well as expose the U.S. as “the world’s largest safe haven for corruption assets and fugitives.”

Specifically, the article claims that the U.S. hosts the highest concentration of persons from developing countries who are suspected of corruption and white-collar crimes. Of the “100-Person Red Notice List” published by the Chinese Interpol office, 20 out of the 38 fugitives who have not yet been brought to justice in China are said to be hiding in the U.S. (The “100-Person Red Notice List” refers to 100 Chinese former state officials who were suspected of corruption and became fugitives targeted for pursuit by Chinese authorities.)

Some Chinese netizens questioned why the CCP’s state media is criticizing the new U.S. entry ban, which ostensibly would make life harder for corrupt individuals fleeing from Chinese authorities. Some netizens speculated that corrupt people [within the CCP] and their families are angry that they can no longer travel to or study in the U.S. One netizen remarked that many families of corrupt Chinese officials will now have to return to China.

Sources:
Central News Agency (Taiwan), January 8, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202401080123.aspx

The White House (US), December 11, 2023
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/12/11/a-proclamation-on-suspension-of-entry-as-immigrants-and-nonimmigrants-of-persons-enabling-corruption/

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

The CCP’s Nine Modes of Interference in Taiwan’s Election

Taiwan will have its Presidential election on January 13. The Epoch Times listed nine modes of influence that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been exercising in attempts to force an election outcome favorable to Beijing.

  1. Xi Jinping and the CCP’s Taiwan Affairs Office have been making veiled threats of war, sending a message to Taiwanese voters. In Xi Jinping’s New Years address on December 26, 2023, Xi Jinping stated that the reunification of Taiwan is “a must” and “historically inevitable.” Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, referred to the presidential and vice-presidential candidates of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Mei-chin, as “war instigators.” At the same time, Chen expressed a willingness to cooperate with Hou Youyi, the presidential candidate from Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) party. The CCP’s endorsement of Hou Youyi is clear.
  2. On January 9th, the CCP launched a satellite using the Long March 2C carrier rocket. The rocket flew over the southern end of Taiwan’s airspace. This served as a reminder to the Taiwanese people that the CCP’s rockets could be overhead at any moment.
  3. The Chinese military conducted maritime exercises in the East China Sea from January 8 to 9.
  4. Chinese military aircraft and warships persist in infringing upon Taiwan’s airspace and territorial waters.
  5. Chinese surveillance balloons over Taiwan – From December 7, 2023 to January 10, 2024, a total of 30 Chinese surveillance balloons flew over the median line of the Taiwan Strait or directly crossed into Taiwan’s airspace.
  6. Inviting Taiwanese politicians to visit mainland China – Liu Zhaoxuan, the former head of Taiwan’s Executive Yuan (the Taiwanese executive cabinet) during Ma Ying-jeou’s presidency, visited China and met with Wang Huning, a CCP Central Committee’s Politburo Standing Committee member. One day later, Ma Ying-jeou suggested that the KMT and the Taiwan People’s Party join forces and rally behind a single presidential candidate to beat the DPP. Vice Chairman Xia Liyan of the KMT visited mainland China on December 13, 2023; this was his fourth visit to the mainland since the summer of 2023. The CCP has also launched a campaign to invite Taiwan’s local officials and village heads to visit mainland China.
  7. Beijing has increased economic pressure on Taiwan, recently announcing increased import tariffs on several categories of Taiwanese goods.
  8. The CCP has provided campaign funds for favored Taiwanese politicians.
  9. The CCP has utilized online platforms to conduct cognitive warfare and disinformation warfare against Taiwan’s population. Techniques employed “integrate cyber, information, psychological and social engineering attack methods and can operate simultaneously with other physical means to influence the attitudes and behaviors of target individuals or groups to gain an advantage.”

Source: Epoch Times, January 10, 2024
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/24/1/10/n14155496.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend

Australian Court Delivers Landmark Verdict: CCP United Front Work Member Convicted of Foreign Interference

In November 2020, the Australian police charged former Liberal Party member Di Sanh “Sunny” Duong, also known as Yang Yisheng, with violating the “Foreign Interference Laws”: Duong was accused of preparing or planning foreign interference activities. On Tuesday, December 19, 2023, an Australian court ruled that the charges were substantiated. This marks the first such verdict under foreign interference laws enacted in 2018. Duong may face up to 10 years in prison.

According to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), prosecutors informed the court that Duong had maintained regular contact with Chinese intelligence agencies and attempted to influence then Federal Minister Alan Tudge to further the goals of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Born in Vietnam, Sunny Duong, 68 years old, is a well-known businessman in the Australian Chinese community. He serves as the chairman of the Oceania Cambodia Vietnam Chinese Association and holds various leadership positions in Chinese community organizations in the Australian state of Victoria. He is believed to be associated with the China Council for the Promotion of Peaceful National Reunification, which is controlled by the CCP’s United Front Work Department.

ABC’s report stated that prosecutor Patrick Doyle SC told the jury that Duong’s actions couldn’t be compared to the espionage seen in spy novels or 007 movies. He said that Duong’s actions were rather a “subtle form of interference,” emphasizing that the motivation was to gain influence [for the CCP].

A secret recording showed that Sunny Duong told a colleague, “What I do won’t be reported in the media, but Beijing knows what I’m doing.”

Source: Voice of America, December 19, 2023
https://www.voachinese.com/a/australia-court-finds-melbourne-man-guilty-of-foreign-interference-121923/7404075.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

CCP Pilots Ethnic Interpenetration Policy in Xinjiang

The Xinjiang Daily reported on December 14, 2023 that the Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture in Xinjiang has enacted “Regulations on Promoting Interaction, Communication, and Integration among Various Ethnic Groups.” Consisting of 19 articles, the legislation aims to commingle diverse ethnic groups together. This would serve as a pilot implementation of the “ethnic interpenetration” policy endorsed by the Chinese Communist Party in 2014.

Critics pointed out that forcing various ethnic groups to live and mix together plays to the CCP’s policy of eliminating minority ethnic cultures and implementing more complete control populations living in China. For example, when members of the Han ethnic group (the majority population in China) are imported to Xinjiang and mixed with the Uighur ethnic group, the Han people’s acceptance of CCP culture will naturally manifest itself in daily life and thereby reduce the religious and cultural cohesion of the Uighur people.

Per the CCP’s ideology, forcible mixing of different ethnicities and cultures is used to foment conflicts between those cultural and ethnic groups. This aids the CCP in “inciting struggle among the people,” e.g. provoking conflicts between the Han and Uighur ethnicities. The resulting instability and incohesion makes it easier for the CCP to implement control.

Such ethnic interpenetration policies also enable the CCP to more conveniently organize intelligence operations and strengthen surveillance over minority ethnic groups.

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 22, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/zhuanlan/yehuazhongnanhai/gx-12222023161033.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Government/Politics Social Stability

Sing Tao Daily: At Least 30 Generals Involved in Rocket Force Corruption Case

China recently announced the removal of nine senior generals of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from the National People’s Congress for their involvement in the Rocket Force’s corruption case. Three Lieutenant Generals were among the indicted: former Air Force Commander Ding Laihang, and former Commanders and Commisar of the Rocket Force Li Yuchao and Zhou Yaning.

Hong Kong-based Sing Tao Daily reported that the involved people also include former Defense Minister General Li Shangfu and General Wei Fenghe, as well as over 30 generals, and many more officers at the divisional level and above.

Source: Sing Tao Daily, December 31, 2023
http://tinyurl.com/4bnss7r7

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Government/Politics

DW Chinese: China’s December Manufacturing PMI Hit Six-Month Low

Deutsche Welle Chinese Edition recently reported that, according to official data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in December was 49.0 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. China’s PMI has been declining for three consecutive months and has now hit a new six-month low. The PMI was also below the Reuter’s estimated median forecast of 49.5 percent.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said that the decline in manufacturing PMI was affected by factors such as the low production rates of some raw materials during the off-season. Some economists expressed the belief that China must take government action to increase support for the economy, lest the trend of slow growth should continue. Analysts expect the central bank to lower interest rates and the bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR) during the coming weeks.

The data from the Bureau of Statistics also showed that, in December, the new orders sub-index of the PMI was 48.7 percent, a decrease of 0.7 percentage from the previous month. This indicates that demand in the manufacturing market has declined. The employment sub-index was 47.9 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage from the previous month, indicating that employment in manufacturing has declined. The Bureau’s senior statistician said that the external environment (referring to China’s relationship with other countries) is “increasingly complex, severe, and uncertain.” He added that the reduction of overseas orders and insufficient effective domestic demand are the main difficulties facing Chinese companies.

Source: DW Chinese, December 31, 2023
http://tinyurl.com/2ccpp5mr

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

CNA: The U.S. Became South Korea’s Largest Export Market

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that, in December 2023, South Korea’s exports to the United States exceeded its exports to China for the first time in 20 years.

Amid tensions over global economic security and technology supply chains, this is an important sign of changes in international relations. According to South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, South Korea’s December 2023 exports to the U.S. and to China were US$11.3 billion and US$10.9 billion, respectively. South Korea’s overall export volume increased at an annual rate of 5.1 percent. South Korea’s overall import value fell by 10.8 percent compared with the same period last year, and the trade surplus expanded to US$4.5 billion.

Although single-month data is not enough to prove that there has been a long-term shift in trading patterns, this change can still be taken as a reflection of the economic challenges facing China. In the meantime, the United States has been trying to win support from its allies to reduce global supply chain dependence on China and to limit Beijing’s access to advanced semiconductor technology. South Korea has forged closer ties with the United States under President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Source: CNA, January 1, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202401013004.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend