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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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Beijing Postpones China-Japan-South Korea Summit so it can Focus on Taiwan’s Presidential Election

According to diplomatic sources cited by South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo, China has proposed postponing the upcoming China-Japan-South Korea Summit (previously scheduled for March 2024) as Beijing wants to prioritize monitoring Taiwan’s upcoming Presidential election (scheduled for January 13, 2024) and then focus on Taiwan-related issues during the following several months.

The last China-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit was held in Chengdu, China in 2019. Subsequent summits were canceled due to COVID. The three countries had planned to resume their trilateral summits in South Korea in 2023, but later decided to postpone until March 2024.

The meeting was expected to be attended by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

Source: Radio Taiwan International, December 31, 2023
https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2191394

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Supreme People’s Court Calls Out Use of Fake Lawsuits to Evade Debts

As China’s economy keeps sliding downwards, some Chinese individuals and companies have colluded with others to create fake lawsuits so that they would not have to pay back their debtors during the multi-year litigation period resulting from the lawsuits.

Recently, the Supreme People’s Court of China released information on typical criminal cases exemplifying this debt evasion practice. The highlighted instances illustrate several tactics used to cause delay in settlement of debts. Tactics include fake transfers of assets, fabricated facts hindering court-ordered execution of property, and interference in compulsory property execution.

Source: Xinhua, December 27, 2023
http://www.news.cn/legal/20231227/0ce1147ea9aa4d4c9df9d47a60b8dced/c.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China’s Population to Shrink Dramatically: Hunan Provincial Education Bureau

An on-line document, apparently issued by Hunan Provincial Education Bureau (document number [2023] 358), indicates that China is facing a dramatic decline in population. According to the document:

  • “Preschool population is rapidly declining compared with 2021, projected to decrease 33 percent by 2025 and 54 percent by 2030.”
  • “Elementary school population will decline in 2024, is expected to decrease 46 percent by 2030 and 62 percent by 2035.”
  • “Middle school population will peak in 2024, will decline by 2030, projected to decrease 53 percent by 2035.”
  • “High school population will peak in 2027, to start declining by 2033, and will drop 24 percent by 2035.”
  • “Research on measures such as ‘transferring surplus teachers’ is required.”

There are also comments saying that the situation in Hunan (a province in central China) is still relatively good; the population crisis is more severe in Northern, Eastern, and Northeastern China.

An independent incident would seem to lend credibility to the picture painted by this document: In July 2022, data on the national population were leaked from a database at the Shanghai Police Bureau, with only 970 million people reported living in China. This suggests that China’s claimed population of 1.4 billion may be far overstated.

Source: Aboluo, December 27, 2023
https://www.aboluowang.com/2023/1227/1996120.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

CNA: Huawei’s 5G Mobile Phone Production Capacity is Insufficient

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently ran an article on Huawei and its competitors in the Chinese mobile phone industry. Below are some key points from the article.

Huawei returned to the 5G space with the unexpected launch of its Mate 60 Pro mobile phone in August 2023. Although the mobile phone launch was very topical and triggered a frenzy of consumer activity, multiple data sources show that Huawei’s 5G handset production capacity is quite insufficient. Huawei’s “grand return to 5G” failed to break the pattern seen in China’s mobile phone market in 2023.

According to International Data Corporation (IDC), 28.71 million new smartphones were registered in the Chinese market in November 2023. Among them, Apple ranked first, with a market share of 21.1 percent; Xiaomi ranked second, with 18.3 percent; Huawei rose to 14 percent and ranked third; Vivo and OPPO ranked fifth and sixth with 13.4 percent and 13.1 percent respectively.

Counterpoint Research data showed that, in October 2023, the best-selling smartphone in China was not a Huawei product but rather the Apple iPhone 15 Pro Max, with a market share of 5 percent. The Huawei Mate 60 Pro phone ranked second with a 4 percent market share, and the smartphones ranked 3rd through 5th were also iPhones.

Tencent News said that, while players in the industry had regarded Huawei’s return to 5G speed as the biggest variable affecting the mobile phone industry in 2023, Huawei’s insufficient production capacity means that the competitive landscape in China has not shifted as much as anticipated. According to data from research institute Canalys, China’s smartphone market shipped 66.7 million units in the third quarter of 2023, with Huawei not being ranked among the top five in terms of shipments.

Source: CNA, December 29, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202312290278.aspx

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology

China’s Marriage Rate Among Young Persons Remains Low

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to the newly published “China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook 2023” compiled by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, late marriage has become a common phenomenon in China. By the end of year 2022, the rates of unmarried persons among various age groups are:

  • Around 51.3 percent are unmarried in the 25-29 age group,
  • 18.4 percent unmarried the 30-34 age group, and
  • 8 percent unmarried in the 35-39 age group.

The unmarried rate among 29-year-olds is 34 percent. In other words, about one in three 29-year-olds is unmarried.

Judging from the age structure of the married population in China since 2010, the age of marriage (and especially the age of first marriage) is now significantly older. China’s average first marriage age in 2020 is 28.67 years old, an increase of 3.78 years from the average first marriage age in 2010 (24.89 years old).

Competitive pressure for employment and longer years of education have resulted in delayed marriage and childbirth. In big cities, young people have a relatively high degree of independence in social life, which has also greatly affected the rate of marriage and age of marriage.

Source: Sina, December 28, 2023
https://news.sina.cn/gn/2023-12-28/detail-imzzqrrs7044951.d.html?vt=4&pos=108&his=0

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

Xinhua: China Exported More Cars in 2023 Than Any Other Country

Xinhua recently reported that, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China’s automobile exports from January to November were 4.412 million units, a year-over-year increase of 58.4 percent. Among them, a total of 1.091 million new energy vehicles were exported, a year-over-year increase of 83.5 percent. Judging from this trend, it is basically a foregone conclusion that the scale of China’s automobile exports in 2023 will exceed the five million vehicle mark.

Japan’s Kyodo News also reported, citing the latest data, that Japan’s automobile exports from January to November this year were 3.99 million units. Although the export data for December have not yet been released, China’s automobile exports are expected to surpass Japan’s in 2023. This will be the first time that China tops the charts as the world’s number one automobile exporter.

In the past year, Chinese car makers have deeply penetrated automobile markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Russia, South America, Asia and Africa, while accelerating the development of the new energy markets such as Europe and North America. For Chinese automakers, Russia offered a large market, and the exit of Japanese and Western automakers from Russia was a boon to Chinese rivals. From January to October 2023, China exported 730,000 cars to Russia, seven times more than the same period in 2022. China’s electric vehicles exports were strong and affordably-priced, one of the primary factors determining China’s top ranking in auto exports worldwide.

Sources:
(1) Xinhua, December 29, 2023
http://www.xinhuanet.com/auto/20231229/5f55c75e3f564789a6fb741e6d85c88c/c.html

(2) Tencent News, December 29, 2023
https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20231229A08X2300

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Xi Asked Chinese Diplomats to Continue Being “Wolf Warriors”

On December 29, 2023, Xi Jinping met with the diplomats attending the 2023 Annual Conference of Foreign Envoys and delivered a speech. Xi urged Chinese diplomats to continue being “wolf warriors”. Some key points from the speech are translated below:

  • “First, remember the original mission of the communist party and be loyal to the party. Loyalty to the Party, loyalty to the country, and loyalty to the people are the glorious traditions of the diplomatic front.”
  • “Second, be a daring and courageous innovator. Actively confront challenges and come up with practical solutions.”
  • “Third, dare to struggle and be skilled in struggles, to be defenders of national interests.”

Source: China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, December 29, 2023
https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/gjldrhd_674881/202312/t20231229_11215237.shtml

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

CCP’s Tactics to Influence People in Taiwan

The director of Taiwan’s Black Bear Institute, Shen Boyang, revealed new Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tactics focused on influencing Taiwan’s elections and shaping public opinion. Shen outlined the CCP’s “raising, enticing, and attacking” strategy, part of the CCP’s united front work, where the CCP first supports individuals financially then pressures them to promote CCP-friendly narratives in Taiwan.

Starting 2014, the CCP changed its strategy to focus primarily on Taiwanese youth. The new strategy is known as “three middles and one youth” (“三中一青”): focusing on small and medium-sized enterprises, middle and low-income groups, central and southern regions, and youth. To target young people, the CCP’s online army (“the 50 cent army”) upload content to each of approximately 200 YouTube channels every day.

For example, during the COVID pandemic, the CCP created a channel to attack the policy and efforts of Chen Shih-chung, then Taiwan’s Minister of Health and Welfare. The channel had 30 million views in Taiwan. The CCP also created the supporting group accounts of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Ching-teh on Facebook. After attracting a large number of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters there, the CCP started to post messages attacking Taiwanese politicians and policies.

Shen Boyang mentioned two series on TikTok – one called “DPP Resign” and another called “The DPP’s Domestic Policies Are Incompetent”. These two series garnered a total of 52 million views in Taiwan this year. Shen warned that ifTikTok users see that 99% of the news is about one party’s problems, he might think that the party is truly incompetent [being influenced by the Chinese propaganda].

Source: Epoch Times, December 31, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/12/31/n14147377.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics