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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Tsai Ing-wen’s Possible TPP Strategy: Taiwan Will Go to the World without Going through China

On January 19, 2016, Ettoday, a media in Taiwan, published an article on Tsai Ing-wen’s possible TPP Strategy. Ms. Tsai is the new president-elect of the Republic of China (Taiwan). While China and Taiwan’s cross-strait trade negotiations are all temporarily on hold before Tsai takes office, some people are worried that Tsai’s government may hinder Taiwan’s economic integration with other regions.

However, one official from the National Development Council in Taiwan released the information that the United States might help Taiwan to “by-pass” China by supporting Taiwan to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP) so as to counterbalance China. The TPP is a US-led trade agreement that includes twelve Pacific Rim countries. The treaty was signed on October 5, 2015, after 7 years of negotiations in which China was absent. A Taiwanese official who did not give out his name explained, “For Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan will go to the world without going through China.” 

Source: Ettoday, January 19, 2016
http://www.ettoday.net/news/20160119/633874.htm  
http://travel.ettoday.net/article/633874.htm
http://一頁.com/detail/1MeOchYM

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Xi Jinping Pressures Ministry and Provincial Party Secretaries to Get on Board

China Disciplinary Inspection Supervision Newspaper published an article that had the purpose of pressuring the Party Secretaries of ministries and provinces to truly implement Xi Jinping’s policies. It asked the disciplinary inspection teams that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Commission on Disciplinary Inspection (CCDI) sent to each ministry and province to check the implementation and hold the Party secretary (the number one person in the organization) responsible.

"The common problem that disciplinary inspection teams found was that there was a big gap between the Party organs’ understanding/action and the Party Central Committee’s requirements or the spirit of the General Secretary’s (Xi Jinping’s) speeches. Our Party treats the high-ranking officials as politicians. For those Party organizations that report directly to the Party Central Committee, quite a few of their number one persons are Party Central Committee members or Alternate Party Central Committee members. They attended all Central Committee’s important meetings and listened to the General Secretary’s speeches. When they went back to their organizations, they simply read the materials to their people and made a claim that they would support them. However, they took no concrete action at all …"

"(The inspection teams) should focus on the Party Secretaries to see if they have fully implemented the spirit of the General Secretary’s speeches."

Source: China Disciplinary Inspection Supervision Newspaper Online, January 25, 2016
http://csr.mos.gov.cn/content/2016-01/25/content_26321.htm

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Xi Jinping’s Signed Article in Iran Newspaper

Xi Jinping published a signed article titled, "Work Together for a Bright Future for China-Iran Relations." It appeared in the Iranian newspaper Iran on January 21, 2016, during his state visit to the country.

In his article, Xi said, "Economically, our bilateral trade jumped from tens of millions of U.S. dollars in the 1970s to 51.8 billion dollars in 2014. China has been Iran’s largest trading partner for six years in a row."

"I think, the cooperation between China and Iran under the framework of the ‘One Belt, One Road’ Initiative can focus on the following areas:

"- Enhance political mutual trust and firm the foundation for cooperation. We will establish a comprehensive strategic partnership and increase exchanges between political parties, legislative organizations, and local levels. We will deepen our cooperation under multilateral frameworks such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA), and the U.N.

"- Pursue win-win outcomes and common prosperity. China has considerable strength in capital, technologies, equipment, and other areas. Iran has rich resources, an ample labor force, and a substantial market potential. The resource endowments and comparative advantages of China and Iran are highly complementary. The implementation of the JCPOA [the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which includes China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States] will bring new opportunities for the growth of China-Iran relations. 

"- Promote connectivity and expand practical cooperation. Connectivity is the artery of the "One Belt, One Road" Initiative. In building connectivity, we should give priority to Asian countries and start with transportation infrastructure. China has a strong competitive edge in areas such as railway, electricity, telecommunications, mechanical engineering, metallurgy, and construction materials. We committed US$40 billion to establish a Silk Road Fund in 2014 to support relevant cooperation projects in countries along the ‘One Belt, One Road.’ Iran is strategically located in the west part of Asia and has distinctive geographical advantages. China is willing to deepen cooperation with Iran on building roads, railways, sea routes, and the Internet; facilitate East-West connectivity in Asia; lower the cost of the cross-border movement of people, merchandise, and capital; and expand cooperation involving energy resources and industries.
"- Uphold openness and inclusiveness and encourage cultural exchanges. We need to strengthen exchanges in culture, education, news, publishing, tourism, and other fields and to encourage more exchanges between the youth and students."

Source: Xinhua, January 21, 2016
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2016-01/21/c_1117854563.htm

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese Military Hawk’s Opinion on Taiwan

Luo Yuan, a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) major-general and Chinese military theorist, published an opinion article on Huanqiu, a People’s Daily publication; in the wake of the recent Taiwan general election, Luo expressed the following:
“Despite the fortuitous development of the Taiwan issue, an iron principle should never be bent: to conform to the historical trend. … No matter what kind of twists and turns may appear, reunification with the motherland is a historical trend that no one can stop.
“We will respect public opinion, but there is a difference between a broad and a narrow public opinion. On the issue of national unity, one should only listen to the broad public opinion of the entire nation, instead of the narrow opinion of the people in one region. … The option of Taiwan’s reunification or independence can be decided only by the 1.3 billion Chinese people including those in Taiwan.
“We will weigh the pros against the cons, but there is a difference between major pros and cons and the small pros and cons. National unity is a serious matter. No cost can be weighed as being superior to the value of unification.
“We will act according to the law. There is a difference between the large law and the small law. On the matter of national unity, the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China, the National Defense Law of the People’s Republic of China, and the Anti-Secession Law are the iron laws that establish the bottom line that no one should touch and the legal framework that no local laws can surpass.
“There is a difference between peaceful reunification and military reunification and we will make every effort to achieve a peaceful reunification. As long as the peace does not die, we will make a one hundred percent effort. In exchange for the best interest of a unified country, we will minimize the costs for the people on both sides. We have made the promise that ‘Chinese don’t fight Chinese,’ but if the ‘Taiwan independence’ forces drive us into a corner, we have no choice but the military solution. ‘If you want reunification, then peace; if independence, then war.’ One cannot draw an equal sign between independence and peace.”
Source: Huanqiu, January 25, 2016
http://opinion.huanqiu.com/1152/2016-01/8438331.html
Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

AIIB: U.S. Dollar Will Be Used as Primary Settlement Currency

Well-known Chinese news site Sina recently reported that the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) officially opened for business on January 16, 2016. In a media interview, the newly appointed AIIB President, Jin Liqun, commented on the Bank’s mission, organizational structure, and operational tasks. The interview touched a few sensitive topics such as the concern that the AIIB might become China’s “tool for foreign relations.” Jin suggested that there is “no need” to avoid acknowledging China’s significant role in the AIIB, which is just like the United States playing a special role in the IMF and the World Bank. Jin also said that the U.S. dollar will be used as the “primary currency” for loans and settlements. He explained that the U.S. dollar is still the “main currency in global trade” and it’s easy to exchange and to use when conducting banking business. However, he said other currencies from China, Japan, and Europe can “also play a role” upon “customers’ requests.”
Source: Sina, January 16, 2016
http://news.sina.com.cn/c/nd/2016-01-16/doc-ifxnqriy2985279.shtml
Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

BBC Chinese: RSF Called for EU Sanctions against Chinese Media

BBC Chinese recently reported that Reporters Without Borders (RSF) condemned Chinese Central Television (CCTV) for broadcasting the “forced confession” of Swedish human rights activist Peter Dahlin, who the Chinese authorities arrested because he supported the human rights lawyers in China. Other Chinese media channels also widely reported the “confession” Dahlin made while under detention. Xinhua also reported that Dahlin participated in “social hotspot events” in order to flame mass social incidents. RSF officials expressed their anger that the Chinese media “spread messages with no news value” and suggested Xinhua and CCTV were spreading “lies” because they were fully aware that the “confession” was made under high pressure. RSF officially called for the European Union to issue sanctions against the Chinese national media. 
Source: BBC Chinese, January 21, 2016
http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/china/2016/01/160121_rsf_sanction_china_media
Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

AmCham China Released 2016 Business Climate Survey

The American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in China recently released its official annual report of its survey results on the Chinese business climate. The report showed that most of the American companies in China felt their popularity had declined. Only 64 percent of the surveyed member companies reported a profit in 2015, which is the lowest point in five years. Nearly half of the industrial and resource oriented companies reported a decline in profits. Many member companies complained that the regulatory environment remained a challenge. The same laws and rules have been applied differently from time to time and from region to region. Transparency, predictability, and the fairness of the regulations are issues that the companies surveyed value very highly. On the positive side, corruption is no longer among the top five biggest challenges of doing business in China. Around a quarter of the companies admitted that they moved some of their manufacturing capacity out of China. 
Source: AmCham China Official Website, January 20, 2016
http://www.amchamchina.org/about/press-center/amcham-statement/2016BCSCNNEW
Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Wang Xiangsui: The U.S. Wants to Be the “World Policeman” with Little Liability, Cost, or Criticism

Following U.S. President Barack Obama’s last State of the Union Address, Xinhua interviewed Wang Xiangsui, a Professor at the Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Director of the Center for Strategic Studies. Wang thought that the content of Obama’s speech was hollow. Some of the achievements Obama listed could not stand up to detailed scrutiny. America’s China policy will mostly maintain the status quo. Below are some excerpts from the interview: 

Xinhua: On the diplomatic front, Obama listed the "return to Asia," the TPP," the Iran nuclear deal, and the normalization of the United States and Cuba’s relations as part of his performance report. The U.S. media commented that these diplomatic projects may end up being aborted projects. What’s your opinion on these issues? 
Wang Xiangsui: Obama’s list of these diplomatic achievements is very hollow. The reason is that, in the end, whether they are his diplomatic legacy or are remaining issues is still worthy of further discussion. Among his list of those deeds, he has not necessarily achieved any tangible results. For example, on the issue of "returning to Asia," is it an achievement or, ultimately, will is still be a problem? In the past, the Asia-Pacific was only one of the global areas where the U.S. had interests. After its strategic move eastward, it became apparent that whatever global imperial power the United States has is shrinking. Therefore, it is too early to conclude right now whether the "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" will be an example of the success of this strategy. Even whether this strategy is a right one for the United States is debatable. 
The same is also true for the TPP. In October 2015, the governments of the United States and 11 other countries signed the TPP agreement. For it to be implemented, the agreement still needs for all of their Congrsses to passed it. Even if all these countries do give a green light to the TPP agreement, whether the TPP will fulfill its expected role is still unknown. The era in which the United States had the final say over the rules of the Asia-Pacific region is already long gone. It is also unrealistic for the TPP countries to completely exclude outsiders. 
Xinhua: Obama proposed four major problems for the U.S. to solve. One of these is how to protect U.S. security and lead the world but, at the same time, also avoid being the "world’s policeman." How do you see it? Does it mean the United States will reduce its efforts in international affairs? 
Wang Xiangsui: The Iraq war was a turning point. America’s national strength and its intervention style in international affairs do not support the U.S. in continuing to intervene everywhere as the "world’s policeman." 

What the United States wants is to be the "world’s policeman," but with relatively limited liability, relatively low capital costs, and very little criticism. For example, it might create more "police branches" on a global scale, with "regional police" to play a bigger role. This also reflects, from another angle, that American power is in gradual decline and it is no longer suitable for it to take as much direct intervention in the world as it did in the past. 

Source: Xinhua, January 15, 2016 
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2016-01/15/c_128629495.htm

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations