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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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The Effort to Join SDR May Include RMB Depreciation

Laohucaijing.com published a commentary about the speech that Zhou Xiaochuan, president of China’s central bank, gave at the meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on April 18, 2015. The commentary warned that, based on Zhou’s remarks, the bubbles in China’s housing and stock markets will burst in the second half of 2015 and RMB depreciation may be likely.

According to the commentary, Zhou’s speech was very detailed and important, unequivocally demonstrating China’s determination to be included in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR). The currency value of the SDR is determined by summing the values in U.S. dollars, based on market exchange rates, of a basket of major currencies (the U.S. dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, and pound sterling). 
The core of Zhou’s speech was that the Chinese Government is working to allow free conversion of the RMB, or at least managed free conversion. The condition for joining SDR is free conversion of the RMB, which China cannot do at the moment. Therefore managed free conversion is a major step forward. If managed conversion is implemented, the bubble in China’s housing and stock market will burst. Chinese will be looking all over the world for investment opportunities. To avoid a reduction in foreign exchange reserves, China’s central bank may depreciate the RMB in the second half of the year. 
Source: Laohucaijing.com, May 7, 2015 
http://www.laohucaijing.com/news/23466.html
Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

The Fifth Generation Chinese Leader’s Political Opponents Include Four Interest Groups

The fifth generation of Chinese leaders [Xi Jinping’s Administration] initiated reform with bold steps, far exceeding its predecessor, the Hu-Wen administration. As the reform has been advancing, a number of interest groups have been thwarting the effort with increasingly strong resistance. Four categories of resisters have gradually coalesced to become the political opponents of the fifth generation of Chinese leaders. 

The first category consists of powerful elite interest groups. Many of them are in high positions and have control of important political and economic resources. Many were once the main force of reform. However, as they became the established interest group, they turned toward resistance. For example, Zhou Yongkang, Ling Jihua, and their followers represent such groups. 

The second category is the interest groups that have formed a selfish departmentalism. These people ignore orders from the upper levels in order to defend their local interests in the implementation of the reform policies. 

The third category is the grassroots bureaucracy. Many local officials have developed a habit of taking a bite out of whatever is going through them. For example, by the time the disaster relief fund reaches the people who really need it, half of it has been siphoned off. 

The fourth category is the social intricacies of various pressure groups. This group is scattered and can gather as a group via the Internet. 

Source: original by Oriental Daily and reposted on Wenxuecity.com, April 10, 2015 http://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2015/04/10/4178601.html
Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

The Central Party School Promotes Four Comprehensives û Xi Jinping’s New Theory

On April, 27, 2015, the website of the Party School of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee (http://www.ccps.gov.cn/) published an article that promoted Xi Jinping’s new theory. Xi Jinping, the current General Secretary of the CCP Central Committee, has presented his new theory as “Four Comprehensives.” That is, the China would work comprehensively to build up a moderately prosperous society, comprehensively deepen reforms, to comprehensively govern the nation according to the law; 4) comprehensively be strict in governing the Party.

According to article, Xi Jinping’s new “Four Comprehensives” theory is rich in content and great in its system. It is the ideological guidance and theoretical guidelines to realize “China Dream” of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nationality. It can also guide us to do all kinds of jobs. … The important and far-reaching significance is self-evident.”

Source:  Website of Party School of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, April 27, 2015

http://www.ccps.gov.cn/theory/zjzx/201504/t20150427_59642.html

 


Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Hong Kong Media: The Central Party School Criticized Jiang Zemin’s Theory, “The Three Represents

On May 1, 2015, one of Hong Kong’s media, Cheng Ming Monthly magazine, published an article titled, “The Party School of the CCP Central Committee criticized the ‘Three Represents.’” The “Three Represents” is a political theory credited to Jiang Zemin, former General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. However, Cheng Ming Monthly only published the title in its online table of contents. The article from the original print edition is not available online. According to Wikipedia, Three Represents is the official statement of the ideology, which stipulates that the Chinese Communist Party should be representative to advanced social productive forces, advanced culture, and the interests of the overwhelming majority.  

On May 5, 2015, NTDTV introduced some specifics about the Cheng Ming Monthly article. At a theoretical study session held at the Party School of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee (http://www.ccps.gov.cn/), participants openly criticized Jiang Zemin’s “Three Represents” theory. They stated, "The Three Represents is empty, vague and metaphysical; it opened the door for the capitalists to join the Party; it betrayed the Party’s Constitution; it violated and trampled the national constitutional system; and it undermined the Party’s organizational structure."

Sources: Chengming, May 1, 2015; NTDTV, May 5, 2015

http://www.chengmingmag.com/cm451/451toc/451toc.html
http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2015/05/06/a1195246.html

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

PLA Daily: U.S. Military Further Strengthens Its Cyber Strategy

On April 23, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter announced the new “cyberspace operations strategy” of the Defense Department, which was an upgraded version of the first edition published in July 2011. Shortly thereafter, China’s PLA Daily published a commentary authored by Lv Jinghua, a scholar at the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences. The commentary stated that the document was intended to designate the next five-year target for U.S. military strategy in cyberspace. The strategy pointed out the most noteworthy three keywords – deterrence, attack, alliance, which represent the direction of the U.S. military developments in cyber power. 

The PLA article questioned the document, “To achieve a deterrent effect, there should be a clear target. Is the United States’ ability to trace the origin really strong enough to distinguish who is the threat maker? Cyberspace is easy to attack and hard to defend, how can one build the perfect defense that the enemy has no way to attack? If the defense were to fail, then when should one launch retaliatory action? The international community has, so far, not reached a consensus on a code of conduct for cyber warfare, so what is the legal basis for the U.S. cyber troops to take action? Snowden’s disclosure has severely damaged trust in the United States for France, Germany, and its other traditional allies. To establish a network alliance requires sharing extremely sensitive information, such as cyberattack capabilities and plans. Will the mutual trust between the allies and the United States return to such a level?” 
The article concluded, “Cyberspace is a new area shared globally. Maintaining network security needs all parties to work together. If the United States only intends to achieve ‘absolute security’ and irresponsibly develops its cyber military force, the result can only be counterproductive, resulting in the proliferation of cyberspace malware, an intensification of the arms race, and a frequent occurrence of crises. What it brings instead is ‘an absolute unsafe’ condition. Such an outcome will be a serious violation of all people’s common will for the ‘peaceful use of cyberspace.’ It will not only harm people; it will not even be self-serving.” 
Source: PLA Daily, May 3, 2015 
http://www.81.cn/jmywyl/2015-05/03/content_6470452.htm

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

China Limits Sources That Internet Media Companies Can Use

The Economic Weekly, a publication under People’s Daily reported that the Cyberspace Administration of China released a list of media from which Internet media companies may reprint news articles. 

According to the Economic Weekly, the list was assembled and released “in order to strengthen control over the sources of online news and to standardize and maintain order related to reprints.” Over 380 websites, TV and radio stations, newspapers, and journals are included in the list. The Communist Party, the central government, or local authorities run or control each and every one of them. No non-government media and no foreign media are included.  The understanding is implicit that these companies are the only sources of news that Internet media companies can reprint. No other sources of news may be used. 
Sources: 
Economic Weekly, May 5, 2015 
http://www.ceweekly.cn/2015/0505/110492.shtml 
Cyberspace Administration of China, May 5, 2015 
http://www.cac.gov.cn/2015-05/05/c_1115179188.htm
Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

China Review News: Pakistan-China Economic Corridor Will Unite Europe and Asia

A recent China Review News commentary addressed the issue of the Pakistan-China Economic Corridor (PCEC). It stated,"The economic corridor that China and Pakistan plan to build between them offers the first strategic sea port in China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ plan. … China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ plan and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will rekindle the thousand-year old dream of uniting Europe and Asia together." 

The commentary said that the PCEC will connect China’s Kashgar to Pakistan’s Gwadar and will include roads, railways, and energy and commercial trade routes. Pakistan will serve as a bridge to connect China to Central and South Asia, forming an economic zone population of 3 billion people.

"This corridor allows China to connect directly to the Arab Sea, giving China the shortest path to connect to Europe, Africa, and the Middle East." "The shipping of energy and cargo in and out of China will be shortened by 4,000 miles. It will take only 10 days, instead of 45 days [via the Malacca Strait], for China to ship its goods to the Middle East and Africa."

Pakistan also offers the best channel for China to connect to Islamic countries. It is China’s firmest ally. It is also the only Islamic country with a nuclear capability. Its military cooperation with China can stabilize the relationship between the two countries and reduce the risk of the "One Belt, One Road" zone.

Source: China Review News, May 3, 2015
http://hk.crntt.com/doc/1037/3/6/4/103736425.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Xinhua: Banks Saw Concentrated Outbreak of Nonperforming Loans

Xinhua recently reported on the first quarter financial reports that multiple major banks released on May 1. The report indicated that the net profit growth rates of the top five Chinese commercial banks all fell into the "realm of one percent.” As the Chinese macro economy slows, the whole banking industry has been dealing with many challenges. In the first quarter, the top five banks saw their nonperforming loans double on a year-over-year basis. According to senior experts at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), more and more overdue loans are in the process of becoming nonperforming loans. PwC recently published a new report which predicted that most banks would post end-of-year-reports for 2015 showing only single-digit growth and that some would even see negative growth. The total of the nonperforming loans is still rising. In the meantime, the risk resulting from the lower quality of credit based assets is continuing to growing.
Source: Xinhua, May 1, 2015
http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2015-05/01/c_127755182.htm
Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources