Outlook Weekly published an article discussing China’s economic growth in the mid to long term. It listed four challenges that China faces:

1. As the global economy is still depressed, the demand for exports may negatively impact China’s economic growth. In 2011, exports dragged down the GDP growth rate by 5.8%.

2. Consumption is likely to stay at the same level. However, the continued economic depression may cause consumption to decrease.

3. The pressure of inflation still exists due to a lack of land in cities, a rapid increase in labor and service costs, an upward adjustment in service industry pricing, the the continuous increase in the price of agricultural products as a result of urbanization, and the ongoing pricing reform

4. High financial leverage results in a risk of bad loans. The M2/GDP ratio, which was 180% in 2011, is higher than in both developed countries and developing countries that are at a comparable income level with China. Local governments and state-owned enterprises are both highly leveraged.

Source: Outlook Weekly, republished on Sohu.com, January 29, 2012
http://news.sohu.com/20120129/n333094430.shtml

China News Net published its first commentary after Chinese New Year’s Day, summarizing the three new year’s resolutions that are on many people’s minds. Number one on the wish list is a further drop in the price of housing. The year 2011 was the year we saw the strongest decline in housing prices. However, for most people, the price level is still far from affordable. The second wish on the list is an increase in income. Although statistically there was an increase in income last year, the high pressure of inflation made the increase seem inconsequential. The third biggest item most people wish for is a large improvement in food safety. In the past year, a wide range of food safety incidents occurred in the consumer market, having to do with pork, cooking oil, frozen dumplings, infant formula, beverages, and more.

Source: China News Net, January 29, 2012
http://www.chinanews.com/cj/2012/01-29/3624990.shtml

China Review News (CRN) recently published an article commenting on China’s current financial position in the world, its weaknesses, and suggestions for future growth. The commentary pointed out that, by the end of October of last year, the assets of China’s central bank were the highest in the world, having reached US$4.73 trillion. At the same time, assets of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the EU Central Bank, and the Japanese central bank reached US$2.85 trillion, US$2.73 trillion and US$1.8 trillion, respectively. China also has the highest savings rate as well as the highest foreign exchange reserves. However, China’s financial system is leaning too heavily towards manufacturing and infrastructure investments. Investment in medium and small enterprises is still lacking. Another problem lies in the area of China’s overseas investments, which have a very low yield of 3%-5%. The commentary made two suggestions: that China should establish financial institutes designed to serve medium and small businesses, and that the practice of the large scale purchase of foreign bonds should be completely changed. Investments should switch to stock shares and other types of ownership of overseas economic entities, including U.S. assets.

Source: China Review News, January 20, 2012
http://gb.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1019/7/1/6/101971606.html?coluid=136&kindid=4710&docid=101971606&mdate=0120000611

Zhang Anyuan, the Director of the Office of Fiscal Finance at the Economic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, proposed two approaches to use regarding China’s foreign reserves. “Rather than watching our foreign exchange reserves shrink in value, we should use them to solve domestic problems.” The first approach is to “convert financial assets into reserves of resources,” whereby China encourages the exploration but limits the production of oil, coal, iron ore, and non-ferrous metals. This would increase their imports, reduce the foreign exchange reserves and keep the reserves of resources available in China. The second approach is to “inject funds into local financial entities so as to increase their credit ratings.” According to Zhang, local financial entities have entered into the peak period when payments are due on the government bonds they previously issued. Some of them may face a high probability of liquidity risks. Such an injection of funds will help improve their credit ratings so that these local financial entities can issue more bonds, domestically or in Hong Kong, to solve their liquidity problems for the payments on the bonds they previously issued. 

Source: Modern Bankers reprinted by Sina.com, January 19, 2012
http://finance.sina.com.cn/leadership/mroll/20120119/160911242096.shtml