UBS Group expects China’s economic growth to be only 3.4 percent this year due to the U.S. tariffs imposed on China’s exports, Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported.
The UBS report, released on April 15, stated that tariff shocks pose unprecedented challenges to China’s exports and that China’s domestic economy will also undergo major adjustments. According to the UBS projection, China’s GDP growth rate may drop by more than two percentage points if the current US tariff rates remain unchanged, even if Beijing introduces new stimulus measures. The report indicates that China’s exports to the U.S. are expected to fall by two-thirds in the coming quarters, and the total value of China’s exports (in U.S. dollars) may fall by 10 percent this year.
UBS economists acknowledge that there is a high margin of error in their views, as there is great uncertainty in the final levels of tariffs to be imposed by the US. Among major banks, UBS is the most pessimistic about China’s economic outlook. UBS’ prior expectation for China’s 2025 economic growth (as assessed before the imposition of tariffs during President Trump’s second term) was four percent.
Source: Lianhe Zaobao, April 15, 2025
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20250415-6191002