{Editor’s Note: Huanqiu Times published an analysis article by Hu Xin, titled “Unraveling the Philippines–U.S. Coordinated ‘South China Sea Discourse Trap.’” {1} The article claims that the United States and the Philippines are working together to create a “discourse trap” on the territorial disputes between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea maritime territories. The article suggests measures that China might take to counter this “discourse trap.” The author is the Executive Director at the Beijing Branch of the think tank National Institute for South China Sea Studies (NISCSS), which is owned by the Hainan Provincial government. The following is a translation of the article.}
If examined in depth, it becomes clear that the Philippines’ public opinion offensive on the South China Sea issue is essentially a systematic campaign of discourse manipulation. By manipulating “salience,” narrative framing, and identity positioning, the Philippines reframes its maritime disputes with China as a regional security crisis in which China challenges international norms.
This strategy is supported by the Stanford University’s Minerva Project. It has evolved into a coordinated cognitive warfare system involving players with specified roles and multiple communication channels.
First, the Philippines creates frequent “sudden crises.” In the first five months of 2025 alone, it staged over ten scripted provocations around Second Thomas Shoal, Sabina Shoal, and Iroquois Reef, using real-time imagery and social media to amplify the effect of “on-the-scene witnessing.”
Second, it distorts narratives through manipulation. The Philippines uses a “victimization frame” to depict small boats confronting large vessels in an asymmetric struggle. It also invokes a “legalization frame” by referencing the invalid 2016 arbitral ruling, portraying China’s rights to protect its waters as a violation of international law and rules-based order.
Third, the campaign reinforces a false narrative of China–Philippines confrontation. Familiar Western tropes like “David vs. Goliath” are used to construct images such as “small democratic nation vs. authoritarian giant” or “protector of rules vs. disruptor of order,” painting China as a bully and recasting the bilateral dispute as an ideological clash – setting the stage for U.S.-led intervention under the so-called “Democratic Pacific Alliance.”
In reality, the Philippine campaign reflects the localized implementation of the U.S.-backed Minerva Project, coordinated by retired U.S. Air Force officer Raymond Powell and supported by Stanford’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. The campaign follows a strategic model: think tank planning → Philippine execution → Western media amplification.
The campaign operates across five tactical dimensions:
- Civilian-Military Camouflage: Politically affiliated groups like “Atin Ito” conduct activities under the guise of humanitarian events – such as Christmas visits, sailing races, or concerts – to infiltrate disputed waters.
- Legal Weaponization: Laws like the “Maritime Zones Act” incorporate the invalid arbitration ruling into domestic law, and further arbitration is threatened under the pretext of coral reef protection.
- Scientific Camouflage: Alleged marine scientists, escorted by coast guard vessels, conduct “reef dives” at Iroquois and Sabina Shoals.
- Cognitive Warfare: Stir nationalist sentiment through selective and subjective editing (e.g., omitting dangerous maneuvers by Philippine vessels) and emotional manipulation (e.g., highlighting hardships of stranded personnel).
- Media Manipulation: Widely promote the narrative of “Chinese coercion” with strong support from U.S. and Western media. The U.S. Special Operations Command’s 2015 “Gray Zone White Paper” explicitly described such tactics as ways to reshape power balances at low cost through ambiguity and legal gray areas.
This U.S.-Philippine joint cognitive war over the South China Sea has deeply eroded regional stability. On the security front, the Philippines’ “kamikaze-style provocation” has raised the risk of military conflict. For example, in the August 2024 Sabina Shoal incident, a Philippine coast guard vessel deliberately collided with a Chinese law enforcement ship while a CNN crew broadcast the incident as a Chinese “attack,” nearly triggering armed confrontation.
Meanwhile, U.S. and Philippine have intensified their military collaboration. In 2023, the Philippines opened four new military bases to U.S. forces. In 2024, the Philippines increased its defense budget by 20 percent, with plans to acquire the U.S. Typhon missile system. This arms race and security dilemma are rapidly escalating.
On the legal front, the Philippines’ efforts to externalize its domestic laws – like the Maritime Zones Act – violate the spirit of UNCLOS and create double standards. U.S. reconnaissance planes flying within 12 nautical miles of Chinese islands are deemed “freedom of navigation,” while Chinese fishing boats seeking shelter near disputed islands are labeled “maritime militia invasions.”
To counter this “South China Sea discourse trap,” action must be taken across three areas:
- Deconstruction of Narratives:
- Use blockchain-based platforms to preserve and authenticate full enforcement footage. For example, multi-angle, timestamped videos from the Sabina Shoal incident forced CNN to issue corrections within 24 hours.
- Legally refute false accusations by mobilizing international law experts to expose jurisdictional overreach in the 2016 ruling and disseminate tailored rebuttals to diverse audiences.
- Reframing with Emotions and Values:
- Repurpose ecological monitoring buoys at Scarborough Shoal as sovereignty markers and broadcast coral restoration to present China as a “guardian of the sea.”
- Collaborate with Malaysia and Indonesia to promote a “South China Sea Civilizational Community with Shared Destiny” or “Blue Shared Destiny” narrative, embedding sovereignty claims in human oceanic heritage. Historical artifacts such as Song Dynasty shipwrecks and Yuan maps can be integrated into this framework.
- Explore joint extraction of oil and gas resources with shared profit models.
- Anchoring Long-term Governance:
- Accelerate the South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations, including clauses like “prior consultation among disputants” and “limits on external intervention.”
- Build multilingual intelligent communication platforms and create credible, expert-led channels.
- Consider transforming Scarborough Shoal into an international tsunami warning center, aligning sovereign claims with regional public goods.
Endnote:
{1} Huanqiu Times, “Unraveling the Philippines–U.S. Coordinated ‘South China Sea Discourse Trap,’” July 8, 2025.
https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/4NPs8aWZejB.