Sanae Takaichi’s election as president of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 2 has positioned her to become Japan’s next prime minister. However, Chinese academics have voiced skepticism about her political durability, predicting that her tenure may be short-lived – possibly even shorter than current Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s one-year term.
Sha Qingqing, a historian, noted that despite Takaichi’s long political career, she has never held major leadership roles within the LDP – such as secretary-general – or key cabinet positions like finance, foreign affairs, or defense minister. Her previous posts, including Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications and special minister on economic security, have kept her at the periphery of Japan’s core policymaking. Sha added that the ruling coalition’s lack of a parliamentary majority will test Takaichi’s political skill, expressing doubt that her administration could survive a full year.
Lian Degui of Shanghai International Studies University argued that Takaichi’s ability to maintain stable ties with China will directly affect her political survival.
Da Zhigang of the Heilongjiang Academy of Social Sciences warned that unless she softens her hardline conservative stance – particularly on historical and foreign policy issues. He warned that maintaining stable relations on issues involving China’s core interests would be crucial to avoiding the fate of another short-lived cabinet.
Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), October 6, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202510060156.aspx