When Sanae Takaichi was elected and sworn in as Japan’s new prime minister on October 21, China’s response was notably restrained. A commentary published on the WeChat account “Niu Tan Qin,” which is linked to China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency, analyzed Beijing’s cautious stance toward the new leader, dubbing her the “female Trump.”
China notably refrained from offering any formal congratulations to Takaichi, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun merely acknowledging that China had “noted the election results” and describing it as “Japan’s internal affair.” This was in stark contrast to China’s immediate congratulations to Bolivia’s newly elected president on the same day. More pointedly, Guo reiterated hopes that Japan would “honor its political commitments on major issues, including history and Taiwan”—a statement not made when Ishiba Shigeru previously assumed office, suggesting Beijing may be drawing a “red line” for Takaichi.
The commentary portrays Takaichi as consistently antagonistic toward China, accusing her of tarnishing China’s image, denying the Nanjing Massacre, promoting the “China threat” narrative, and making provocative statements on Taiwan. Her frequent visits to the contentious Yasukuni Shrine and her push for constitutional reform to transform Japan’s Self-Defense Forces into a national military were also highlighted. Takaichi’s focus on cross-strait issues is well-known, including her famous assertion that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japanese contingency.”
The analysis presents three potential scenarios for Sino-Japanese relations under Takaichi’s leadership, but it dismisses the possibility of her moderating her positions as unrealistic. The article warns that if she pursues her conservative agenda and attempts to turn Japan into an anti-China pivot in the Indo-Pacific, bilateral relations could face “turbulent waters or even stormy seas.” Despite these concerns, the analysis expresses confidence, questioning what damage even a hostile Japanese leader could inflict on China given the current balance of power. It concludes with a prediction that Takaichi’s tenure will be short-lived—one year would be an achievement, two years a miracle, and three years would be impossible.
Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), October 22, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202510220244.aspx