Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that, amid the U.S.-China trade war, China has halted its soybean purchases from the U.S. and is shifting to Brazil and other countries. However, the China Soybean Industry Association (CSIA) stated that the high premium on Brazilian soybeans has deterred Chinese buyers.
CSIA stated that China purchased a large volume of Argentine soybeans at the end of September, mainly for shipment in November. China currently still needs to purchase about 8 million to 9 million tons of soybeans for shipment from December to January next year. Due to the ongoing trade tensions between China and the United States, Chinese buyers have not yet placed any orders for new U.S. beans.
Currently, Brazilian soybeans are quoted at ports at a premium of US$2.8 to US$2.9 per bushel over the November soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). This is much higher than the US$1.7 premium for U.S. soybeans. For most of the second half of this year, China’s soybean crushing margins have been in negative territory, which has also made Chinese oil mills less willing to buy. Due to high prices, Chinese buyers have little incentive to purchase Brazilion soybeans for December and January next year.
Some industry insiders believe that Chinese buyers haven’t completely given up on U.S. soybean supplies. As Trump-Xi meeting is expected to take place in South Korea very soon, if the U.S. and China can reach a trade agreement, Chinese oil mills may shift to purchasing U.S. soybeans between December and January next year, since U.S. soybean prices are significantly more attractive than South American competitors’.
Source: CNA, October 25, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202510250157.aspx