Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent comments regarding a potential “Taiwan contingency” have prompted a strong reaction from Beijing. Analysts argue that this response reflects more than diplomatic friction—it reveals China’s underlying concerns about U.S.–Japan military cooperation in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict. Japanese media, citing former Maritime Self-Defense Force officer and current military analyst “Major General Wolf,” note that these concerns rest on concrete strategic simulations rather than conjecture.
A 2023 wargame assessment by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) examined 24 potential invasion scenarios. In the simulations, China secured victory in only two, and only when the United States and Japan failed to coordinate their actions. In nearly every other case, joint U.S.–Japan involvement significantly diminished the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) chances of occupying Taiwan.
Experts distill the formula for preventing a successful takeover into three interdependent factors: Taiwan’s determination to defend itself, U.S. military intervention, and Japanese logistical and basing support. All three components, they argue, are essential. China’s sharp response to Takaichi’s remarks underscores this strategic reality—robust trilateral alignment among Taiwan, the United States, and Japan would make a PLA victory in the Taiwan Strait highly improbable.
Source: Secret China, December 3, 2025
https://www.secretchina.com/news/b5/2025/12/03/1091482.html