A journal published by the Chinese Communist Party has warned that blindly pursuing export growth and trade surpluses carries significant risks to the country’s economic development, including crowding out industries tied to domestic demand. Analysts say the article signals that Beijing is paying increasing attention to concerns raised by trading partners such as the European Union over China’s massive trade surpluses.
The article, published on March 31 in Qiushi — the CCP’s flagship theoretical journal — acknowledged that China’s exports and trade surplus have grown substantially in recent years, attributing this not to government directives but to structural and industrial factors reflecting the strength of China’s manufacturing and supply chains.
However, the journal cautioned that bigger exports are not always better. Domestically, over-allocating resources to the export sector can squeeze industries serving internal demand and hinder the development of homegrown economic momentum. Externally, heavy reliance on exports makes the economy more vulnerable to global market fluctuations, and persistent surpluses can invite trade protectionism and friction.
The article stressed that balancing trade does not mean cutting exports, but rather expanding imports, optimizing trade structure, and moderately reducing surpluses. It also recommended lowering provisional import tariff rates on advanced technologies, critical equipment, energy resources, and quality consumer goods.
China’s trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion in 2025, with exports contributing nearly one-third of economic growth. Premier Li Qiang, speaking at the China Development Forum on March 22, pledged to import more quality foreign goods and said China does not pursue trade surpluses.
Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said Chinese policymakers are sending a clear signal that expanding domestic demand is now a long-term strategy. He noted that Beijing does not wish to sustain large surpluses indefinitely, as they increase geopolitical vulnerability, and that current surpluses largely reflect weak domestic demand that will gradually be addressed through policy measures.
Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), April 2, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202604020097.aspx