China’s rapid subway expansion era is drawing to a close, as local governments face mounting financial pressures and demographic headwinds — even in prosperous coastal cities.
A widely circulated article from the WeChat account “Urban Finance” highlights how several major cities have recently seen subway plans rejected or scaled back. Ningbo’s development authority stated the city lacks the ridership levels needed to qualify for a fourth phase of rail construction. Shenzhen’s proposed Metro Line 18 failed to receive national approval. And Guangzhou’s fourth phase of subway planning may be approved for only about 100 kilometers fewer than originally submitted — a reduction of over 60 percent.
The article notes that approval difficulties are no longer limited to smaller cities; even high-tier urban centers are finding it harder to get new lines greenlit. Behind the tightening standards lie two key forces: the collapse of the real estate sector has severely squeezed local government revenues and worsened debt problems, while slowing population growth has undermined the ridership case for new lines in many cities.
The financial toll is already visible. Shenzhen Metro, which intervened to bail out property developer Vanke Group, reported a loss of 33.46 billion yuan (approximately $4.6 billion USD) by the end of 2024 — more than it earned over the previous five years combined.
The broader fiscal picture reinforces the challenge. National land sale revenues fell to 4.15 trillion yuan (approximately $571 billion USD) in 2024, less than half the peak of 8.7 trillion yuan (approximately $1.2 trillion USD) reached in 2021.
China currently has over 40 cities with metro systems, including Shanghai and Beijing, both of which have surpassed 900 kilometers of operating lines. But the article argues the era of cities racing to build sprawling networks is effectively over. While new lines will continue opening in the coming decade, the spectacle of cities competing to submit hundred-kilometer expansion plans is unlikely to return.
Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), April 13, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202604130173.aspx