Kiyoshi Ogawa, a former senior commander of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force and now a think tank researcher, said in a recent talk that Japan could intervene at an early stage of a Taiwan Strait conflict. Such early involvement, he argued, would significantly disrupt China’s assumed timeline and compel it to reassess its military plans for Taiwan.
According to his analysis, China’s approach to a Taiwan scenario can be broadly divided into three phases:
- A “peacetime” phase involving psychological operations, military exercises, and a blockade aimed at deterring foreign intervention;
- Escalation into active conflict, including missile strikes and cyberattacks;
- A full-scale amphibious invasion after achieving air and sea superiority.
In November last year, Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated in a parliamentary response that escalating tensions around Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. She noted circumstances a blockade of the Taiwan Strait could meet this threshold, “if Taiwan is subjected to a military attack, including a naval blockade carried out by warships in conjunction with other measures, it could be regarded as the use of force.”
China’s strategy is widely seen as relying on achieving a rapid victory before external forces—particularly the United States and Japan—can intervene. However, Japan’s position suggests that intervention could occur as early as the initial blockade phase, rather than in later stages of the conflict.
Such a shift would fundamentally alter China’s planning assumptions, potentially forcing a reassessment of its operational timeline and force deployment. Sanae Takaichi’ remarks are viewed as strategically significant and have drawn strong reactions from Beijing.
Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), April 27, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202604270115.aspx