Public criticism of China’s economy by prominent Chinese scholars is relatively uncommon. However, at the 122nd China Macroeconomy Forum (CMF) on July 11, Li Daokui (李稻葵), dean of Tsinghua University’s Institute for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking, acknowledged that China’s economy has remained “too cold” for the past three years and estimated the country’s broad unemployment rate at 10.2 percent.
Li argued that China’s greatest economic challenge is not a K-shaped recovery or widening economic polarization, but a prolonged, broad-based slowdown affecting the entire economy. He warned that strong performance in a few sectors cannot compensate for weakness across the broader economic base.
Li highlighted two indicators that he believes require urgent attention: broad unemployment and fixed-asset investment. His research team recalculated China’s unemployment rate by including discouraged workers who have stopped actively seeking jobs but still want employment. Based on this methodology, he estimated the broad unemployment rate at 10.2 percent, including approximately 24 million long-term discouraged workers, of whom about 13 million are between the ages of 16 and 24. He warned that persistently high youth unemployment poses a risk to social stability.
Li also pointed to the continued contraction in fixed-asset investment, noting that investment declined throughout 2025 and fell another 4.1 percent year-on-year during the first five months of 2026—an unusually prolonged downturn. He attributed the slowdown to the exhaustion of China’s traditional growth drivers, arguing that neither the property sector nor large-scale infrastructure investment is providing the economic momentum that fueled growth over the past two decades.
Source: United Daily News (Taiwan), July 14, 2026
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