Epoch AI published an analysis of Huawei’s AI chip roadmap through 2031, concluding that Huawei is unlikely to catch up with Nvidia in AI computing capacity by 2030. U.S. export controls continue to limit Huawei’s access to advanced semiconductor manufacturing and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), constraining both chip performance and production capacity.
- Growing compute gap: Epoch AI estimates that Huawei will produce less than 4 percent as much AI compute as Nvidia in 2026. If Huawei relies entirely on domestically produced HBM, its output could fall to around 1 percent of Nvidia’s by 2028.
- Key bottleneck—HBM: Huawei’s immediate challenge is access to sufficient HBM. As China expands domestic HBM production, the bottleneck is expected to shift from memory supply to chip performance. Even a major increase in HBM production may not close the gap, as Nvidia is simultaneously advancing its chips and adopting more advanced manufacturing processes.
- Huawei’s strategy: Huawei plans to improve its AI chips through higher performance, greater connectivity among chips, and more efficient software utilization. Epoch AI estimates that Huawei’s chips could remain roughly three to four years behind Nvidia through 2030.
- LogicFolding technology and potential limitations: Huawei’s longer-term strategy centers on LogicFolding, a 3D chip-stacking technology designed to increase transistor density without requiring the most advanced lithography equipment. The technology is not expected to reach Huawei’s Ascend line until 2030. Nvidia is also developing stacked-logic technology and may deploy it earlier, potentially limiting Huawei’s ability to gain a lasting technological advantage.
Overall, U.S. export controls appear to be slowing rather than stopping China’s AI chip development. Huawei could narrow the gap through advances in 3D stacking, software, manufacturing, and domestic supply chains. However, based on current technology and production trends, Epoch AI concludes that Huawei is unlikely to match Nvidia’s AI computing capacity by 2030.
Source: Epoch AI, September 4, 2026
https://epoch.ai/publications/huaweis-roadmap-to-2031