At a seminar hosted by the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, National Defense University professor Ma Zhenkun assessed the “substance and appearance” of China’s military expansion. He said China’s People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) tangible capabilities have improved significantly since the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, including a sharp increase in missiles, broader precision-strike capabilities, more survivable mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers, and advances in second-strike capability.
However, Ma argued that extensive purges of senior PLA officers have weakened its command structure and operational effectiveness. Citing think-tank estimates, his research said roughly 28–30 senior generals and more than 40–50 lieutenant generals have been detained, expelled, or absent from important meetings since 2023. He also pointed to the absence of large-scale, centrally commanded joint exercises around Taiwan following the removal of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. As examples of possible operational weaknesses, Ma cited a PLA formation sent to the Western Pacific after a Japanese destroyer transited the Taiwan Strait that consisted of only two combat ships, lacked a supply vessel, returned after three days, and did not disclose its training objectives. He also cited a confrontation near Sandy Cay in the South China Sea in which two larger Chinese vessels reportedly failed to intercept a smaller Philippine vessel, which he said reflected weaknesses in tactical coordination and force deployment.
Ma concluded that while the PLA’s tangible military strength has grown and affects U.S. force planning in the First Island Chain, its “intangible” capabilities—including senior leadership, joint command, and combat effectiveness—have been weakened. His overall assessment was that the PLA’s actual military strength may currently be lower than its visible military capabilities.
Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), September 18, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202609180243.aspx