In 2025, China’s crude steel production and apparent steel consumption both declined. From January to October, the country produced 818 million tons of crude steel, down 3.9 percent year-on-year, while domestic apparent consumption fell from a 2020 peak of 1.04 billion tons to 890 million tons in 2024, averaging a 3.8 percent annual decline. In the first three quarters of 2025, apparent consumption dropped 5.7 percent year-on-year to 649 million tons. Profitability in the steel sector also weakened, with October profits down 41 percent month-on-month and 25.9 percent year-on-year, leaving a profit margin of just 1.2 percent.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) noted a severe imbalance between supply and demand, driven by structural economic shifts such as the cooling real estate market and slower infrastructure spending, signaling the end of China’s steel-led growth era. Although steel exports increased 9.2 percent to 87.96 million tons in the first three quarters, future exports face significant headwinds. Analysts warn that China’s direct steel exports could be halved over the next five years, potentially reducing apparent consumption to around 750 million tons and fundamentally reshaping the industry.
Trade tensions are intensifying these challenges. Vietnam, China’s largest overseas steel market, imposed anti-dumping duties of 23.1 – 27.83 percent on Chinese hot-rolled steel in July, followed by an anti-circumvention investigation. Consequently, China’s steel exports to Vietnam fell 24.8 percent in the first three quarters of the year. Beyond Vietnam, at least 11 countries have implemented anti-dumping or safeguard measures against Chinese steel since early 2024, causing overall exports to affected markets to decline nearly 30 percent year-on-year through July 2025.
Source: Epoch Times, December 3, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/25/12/3/n14647861.htm