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Monthly Archives: January 2023 - 3. page

Economy: How Will China’s Local Governments Manage Their Debts?

The high level of China’s local government debts has grown to a point of being alarming. Liu Kun, China’s Minister of Finance asked local governments to be responsible for their own debts and that the central government will not help, as “whose child do they hold?”

A Taiwanese media Up Media republished an article by Yan Cungou, a former Wen Wei Po editor, commenting on this policy:

Why was Liu Kun so cold-hearted? It is because the central government has depleted its money. It does not have the ability to cover local governments any more. It is just giving a warning up front.

In China, the local governments have accumulated 65 trillion yuan (US$9.6 trillion)in debt. Where can local governments find the money to pay off these debts? One possibility is to exploit private companies. This can result in the massive death of private companies. A second way is to exploit the people. However, people do not have much left after the three years of “zero-COVID” control and over-exploitation can lead to escalated conflicts between people and the authorities. The third option is to cut spending and lay off government staff members. However, the officials might be so hurt that they would stop working hard for the communist regime. In the end, the local government will run out of money and won’t even be able to pay for stability control efforts. Then there would be more social turmoil.

There might be several consequences for the central government’s “not holding local governments’ children.” First is that the central government will lose its authority over the local governments. Second is that local governments will focus on own interests and depart from the central government. Third is that the infighting among local governments (for resources) would intensify. Fourth is that people would protest and add to the pressure on the authorities.

Source: Up Media, January 17, 2023
https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?Type=2&SerialNo=163946

China’s Housing Prices Have Been Going South for 16 Months

On January 16, China’s National Statistics Bureau released information on the housing prices in 70 major and medium-sized cities during the month of December, 2022. New house sales prices in 55 cities were lower than the previous month, an increase of four more cities from November’s statistics. Existing house sales prices went down in 63 cities, with the addition of one more city from November.

According to the National Statistics Bureau’s data, starting in September 2021, prices of both new house sales and existing house sales in 70 major and medium-sized cities have dropped down and the downward trend has lasted for 16 months, through the present.

Source: China News Agency, January 16, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202301160299.aspx

Pandemic: One Doctor Serves Nine Villages

China Newsweek reported, “A doctor who graduated from a secondary vocational school is responsible for the medical care for nine villages and a total of 1,400 people. When the COVID epidemic wave hit there, he had only a few boxes of fever reduction medicine and 30 antigen test kits.” In the past three years, his villages didn’t treat any patient who had a fever or store any medicine, nor would COVID medicine be shipped there since they were in remote mountains. This doctor spent 3,000 yuan (US$440), of his own money to buy an oxygen machine for his patients.

Normally China’s village hospitals do not have enough medical staff members, medical beds, ventilators, or extra-corporeal life support devices. However, many elderly people in villages do not have regular medical checkups and they often had some different illnesses already before COVID hit. Thus such villages face a much tougher fight against the COVID infection wave.

Even the county level hospitals are short of ventilators: only half of the beds have them.

Source: China News Agency, January 16, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202301160242.aspx

Central Economic Work Conference Stressed Expanding Domestic Demand

China Daily published an article that an author wrote commenting on China’s economic focus for the year 2023. The article said that a Central Economic Work Conference was held on December 15 and 16, 2022. The conference provided a comprehensive plan for China’s economic work in 2023. In the plan, the recovery and expansion of consumer spending has a high priority and thus the expansion of domestic demand is the focal task for China’s economic work.

The article acknowledged that, for the past three years, China’s economy has been impacted negatively by international relations and by COVID. Consumer spending has also gone down significantly. In the first three quarters of 2022, China’s GDP growth rates were 4.8 percent, 0.4 percent, and 3.9 percent, respectively. The growth rate in those three quarters for total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.3 percent, -4.6 percent, and 3.5 percent, respectively. This shows that residents’ consumption dragged down the GDP.

The world economy is very likely to slow down in 2023. Western countries may be trapped in inflation and enter recession. Thus the external demand for China is likely to drop significantly. In fact, this has already happened. The growth rate for China’s exports  in January 2022 was 24.1 percent over the same period a year ago, but only 5.7 percent in September 2022. It could keep sliding in 2023.

Therefore, China’s economic growth will have to rely on domestic consumption.

Source: China Today, January 10, 2023
http://www.chinatoday.com.cn/zw2018/bktg/202301/t20230110_800318097.html

Global Times: TSMC Considering Building a Second Factory in Japan

Global Times recently reported that the Japanese government actively invited TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) to expand its manufacturing capacity in Japan and introduce EUV process. The TSMC CEO confirmed for the first time at a press conference that TSMC is indeed considering building a second factory in Japan. TSMC is currently building a fab with special process technology in Japan, which will use 12/16nm and 22/28nm process technology, and plans to enter mass production by the end of 2024. Though the first factory is still under construction, TSMC plans to build a second fab at the same time, as long as customer demand and the level of government support make sense. According to previous Japanese media reports, TSMC’s first factory is being constructed in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan. The Japanese government had previously decided to subsidize nearly half of the 1 trillion yen investment required by TSMC to build the factory. In response to foreign government invitations, TSMC is promoting the construction of factories overseas. In last December, TSMC announced that it would increase its planned investment of US$12 billion to US$40 to build two factories in Phoenix, Arizona. 4nm and 3nm chips will be put into production in 2024 and 2026. That represents TSMC’s largest investment outside of Taiwan and one of the largest foreign direct investments in U.S. history.

Source: Global Times, January 12, 2023
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/4BG6VCqka5b

Sing Tao: Uganda Cancelled Railway Contract with China

Primary Hong Kong news media Sing Tao News Group recently reported that, due to dissatisfaction with China’s reluctance to finance the project, the Ugandan government has terminated its contract with a Chinese company to build a railway in the local area. Uganda is seeking a Turkish company to take over. Ugandan officials in charge of coordinating the project confirmed the news. According to the contract, one of the conditions is that China is obliged to assist Uganda in obtaining financing for the project, but this has not happened. The Ugandan authorities sent a letter to China Harbor Engineering (HEC) to terminate the contract in December 2022. HEC has not raised any objections so far. This 273-kilometer railway connects Uganda’s capital, Kampala, and the border with Kenya. In order to connect with the international standard-gauge railway leading to Mombasa, Kenya’s Indian Ocean port, the new railway construction plan also adopts the international standard gauge. The entire project is estimated to cost US$2.2 billion. The Chinese spokesperson of the Foreign Affairs Ministry said China and Uganda have established a comprehensive cooperative partnership and that the pragmatic cooperation between the two countries is at the forefront of China-Africa cooperation.

Source: Sing Tao, January 14, 2023
https://bit.ly/3INEVpF

China’s December Imports/Exports Continued to Decline

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to the data released by the Chinese General Administration of Customs, in U.S. dollar terms, the Chinese exports in December 2022 decreased by 9.9 percent year-over-year, and the imports decreased by 7.5 percent year-over-year. In December, the exports declined for the third consecutive month and the decline has continued to expand. This was mainly due to the increasing pressure of the global economic recession and the slowdown in external demand. December’s exports to the United States fell by 19.5 percent year-over-year. They have continued to be in a state of deep decline and there has been a negative growth for five consecutive months. This has mainly been due to the obvious decline in the demand for Chinese goods in the U.S. domestic market. The Fed’s continuous and substantial interest rate hikes have formed a strong inhibitory effect on the aggregate domestic demand in the United States. In addition, after the pandemic, U.S. domestic consumption has shifted from goods to services. It is very difficult for Chinese exports to the U.S. to turn positive in the short term. In the meantime, China’s exports to the EU fell by 17.5 percent year-over-year. This was a 6.9 percentage points widening loss from the previous month, and a negative growth for four consecutive months. Also, China’s exports to Japan fell by 3.3 percent year-over-year. Overall, China’s exports will slow down sharply in 2023. It is expected that the surplus of the trade in goods  will narrow significantly. In addition, as the outbound travel will gradually resume, the deficit in service trade may expand again.

Source: Sina, January 13, 2023
http://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/stock/go.php/vReport_Show/kind/search/rptid/726955017769/index.phtml

Beijing Is Working on Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines

Since the Communist Party’s 20th National Party Congress, Beijing has been adopting a “divide-and-conquer” strategy in its foreign policy with the Southeastern countries. It does not like multilateral relationships (China is likely to be against working with a group of countries), but prefers bilateralism (China has a bigger advantage in a one-on-one relationship) instead. Using its economic power. China has already captured Cambodia and Laos and is now working on Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia.

Take Vietnam as an example. Sino-Vietnam trade increased 10 percent in the first nine months of this year, from the same period a year ago. Imports from China counted for 70 percent of Vietnam’s total imports.

Beijing invited Nguyen Phu Trong, General Secretary of Vietnam’s Communist Party, to visit China at the end of October. He was the first foreign dignitary to visit China after the  closing of the 20th Party National Congress. Both sides issued a joint statement, including a plan to accelerate cooperation between China’s “Belt & Road Initiative” and Vietnam’s “Two Corridors and One Circle” framework.

Later, Indonesian President Jokowi greeted Xi Jinping at a bilateral meeting following the G20 Indonesia Summit in Bali. Jokowi called Xi “elder brother.”

President Marcos of the Philippines visited Beijing in January and the two countries signed over ten agreements under the “Belt & Road Initiative” framework.

Source: China News, January 5, 2023
https://news.creaders.net/china/2023/01/05/2564180.html