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China’s Steel Industry Faces Challenges; Analysts Warn Exports Could Halve Over Five Years

In 2025, China’s crude steel production and apparent steel consumption both declined. From January to October, the country produced 818 million tons of crude steel, down 3.9 percent year-on-year, while domestic apparent consumption fell from a 2020 peak of 1.04 billion tons to 890 million tons in 2024, averaging a 3.8 percent annual decline. In the first three quarters of 2025, apparent consumption dropped 5.7 percent year-on-year to 649 million tons. Profitability in the steel sector also weakened, with October profits down 41 percent month-on-month and 25.9 percent year-on-year, leaving a profit margin of just 1.2 percent.

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) noted a severe imbalance between supply and demand, driven by structural economic shifts such as the cooling real estate market and slower infrastructure spending, signaling the end of China’s steel-led growth era. Although steel exports increased 9.2 percent to 87.96 million tons in the first three quarters, future exports face significant headwinds. Analysts warn that China’s direct steel exports could be halved over the next five years, potentially reducing apparent consumption to around 750 million tons and fundamentally reshaping the industry.

Trade tensions are intensifying these challenges. Vietnam, China’s largest overseas steel market, imposed anti-dumping duties of 23.1 – 27.83 percent on Chinese hot-rolled steel in July, followed by an anti-circumvention investigation. Consequently, China’s steel exports to Vietnam fell 24.8 percent in the first three quarters of the year. Beyond Vietnam, at least 11 countries have implemented anti-dumping or safeguard measures against Chinese steel since early 2024, causing overall exports to affected markets to decline nearly 30 percent year-on-year through July 2025.

Source: Epoch Times, December 3, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/25/12/3/n14647861.htm

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People’s Daily: China and ASEAN Countries Accelerate Integrated Market Development Efforts

Chinese government news outlet People’s Daily reported that China and ASEAN member states are deepening cooperation in digital payments, e-commerce, AI, and supply-chain networks under an upgraded Free Trade Agreement, the “FTA 3.0 Protocol.”

The Thai central bank has integrated the country’s PromptPay system with major Chinese mobile payment platforms, including Alipay and WeChat Pay, enabling seamless QR-code payments for Chinese visitors. Huawei Cloud has “enhanced local transaction stability,” while Thai hospitals have begun using AI-powered translation tools to better serve Chinese-speaking patients.

Singapore has rolled out an AI travel assistant, offering itineraries in Chinese. China and Malaysia have jointly launched an AI-focused training academy integrating big data and generative AI into workforce development. Meanwhile, JD Logistics has established a major supply hub in Malaysia and is expanding its services into Vietnam.

Industrial cooperation is also strengthening, People’s Daily reports. China-ASEAN automotive collaboration now spans raw materials, production, and sales, “supported by unified standards and regional logistics networks.” At the border, China and Vietnam are building a smart port at Youyi Pass, “enabling 24-hour, zero-wait customs clearance to further streamline trade flows.”

Source: People’s Daily, December 3, 2025
https://world.people.com.cn/n1/2025/1203/c1002-40616109.html

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Greenland Seeks “Democratic Partners” for Rare-Earth Development, Not Open to Join Development With China

Greenland Premier Nielsen told Japanese media Nikkei on November 19 that Greenland is seeking partners from “sound democracies” to jointly develop its rare-earth resources, expressing interest in collaboration with Japan, the EU, and the United States. He noted that EU countries are already engaged in raw-material projects on the island and expressed hope to strengthen those partnerships.

Despite China’s global dominance in rare-earth production, Nielsen emphasized that China is not being considered as a partner. Greenland has received no investment requests from Chinese companies and does not view China as a future collaborator. Instead, the island is focused on working with allies and like-minded nations.

Denmark, the EU member state responsible for Greenland, is also unlikely to support Chinese investment, given the EU’s efforts to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals. According to EU officials, most of the minerals designated as strategic by the European Commission are found in Greenland, prompting the island to prioritize joint projects with Europe and Japan.

Source: Epoch Times, November 22, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/25/11/22/n14641177.htm

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DW Chinese: China’s Manufacturing PMI in Contraction for Eighth Consecutive Month

Data recently released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed the Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reached 49.2 in November, remaining below the 50-point threshold that marks expansion from contraction. This indicates China’s manufacturing sector declined for the eighth consecutive month, Deutsche Welle Chinese reports.

The latest data shows that Chinese companies have been struggling to recover since the pandemic. Furthermore, the U.S.-China trade dispute has severely impacted many factories and manufacturing sectors. Looking at the sub-indices, production output remained at 50.0, showing a stagnant year-over-year growth; both the new orders and new export orders indices improved compared to October, but still did not return to the expansion range above 50.

The PMI for Chinese small manufacturing companies rose by two percentage points in November, reaching a near six-month high of 49.1. This improvement may be attributed to the resilience of the export sector and the recent reduction of high tariffs by U.S. President Trump, which has partially alleviated the export pressure on Chinese products.

China’s policymakers now face a dilemma: continue pushing through difficult structural reforms, or should they introduce more stimulus policies to boost domestic demand?

Source: Deutsche Welle Chinese, November 30, 2025
https://tinyurl.com/2m42mc5m

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CCTV Reports Crackdown on Espionage Targeting China’s Crop Genetic Data

China Central Television (CCTV) reports that state security agencies have uncovered and disrupted foreign espionage operations aimed at obtaining the genetic data and seed resources of key crops including soybeans, corn, and rice. According to the report, foreign intelligence services sought to acquire hybrid parent seeds — which are banned from export — by recruiting domestic collaborators and using covert methods, such as concealing seeds in export consignments. One suspect, surnamed Zhu, was sentenced to one year and six months in prison, while 17 others were given administrative penalties.

The report claims that foreign “research teams,” in some cases linked to diplomats, made repeated attempts to enter major grain-producing regions to gather data on production and reserves under the guise of field studies. These individuals allegedly employed counter-surveillance techniques, including changing vehicles, traveling on rural routes, and displaying cautious behavior in the field, before being intercepted by security officials.

CCTV described these activities as a significant threat to China’s food security and to the protection of its agricultural genetic resources. National security agencies stated that they are continuing to investigate and prevent such incidents, and called on the public to report suspicious activity through official channels.

Source: CCTV, November 3, 2025
https://news.cctv.com/2025/11/03/ARTIVnWtm4dzLDLv654LYruG251103.shtml

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Dutch Chipmaker Nexperia Urges China Unit to Resume Operations Amid Disruptions

In a public letter issued on November 28, 2025, Dutch chipmaker Nexperia called on its Chinese subsidiary — controlled by Wingtech Technology — to restore normal supply-chain operations. The company warned that clients across multiple industries have reported that their production is “on the verge of shutdown,” highlighting the urgent need to stabilize chip deliveries.

Wingtech immediately pushed back, describing Nexperia’s allegations as “grossly misleading and false.” The Chinese parent company claims the disruption stems from what it calls an unlawful effort by Nexperia’s Dutch management to strip Wingtech of corporate control and shareholder rights. According to Wingtech, these moves — launched after the Dutch government intervened to seize supervisory control of Nexperia in September 2025 — triggered the breakdown in internal cooperation and subsequent supply-chain paralysis.

The dispute now extends far beyond corporate governance. Supplies for global automotive and electronics manufacturers have already been disrupted, as Nexperia primarily packages and tests its chips in China — especially at its major facility in Dongguan, Guangdong Province — before exporting them worldwide. Current inventory buffers may last only a few months, raising industrywide concerns over potential semiconductor shortages should the stalemate continue.

Background:
Nexperia, formerly a division of Philips, was acquired in 2018 by Chinese electronics group Wingtech. Over the following years, the parent Chinese company shifted a significant share of the company’s semiconductor output to China, with assembly and testing centered in Dongguan while wafer fabrication remained in Europe. In September 2025, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs invoked the wartime-era Goods Availability Act to take supervisory control of Nexperia, citing fears that core technology and intellectual property could be transferred to China. Beijing responded by halting exports of Nexperia-produced chips from China — disrupting the supply of key components for automakers and other global manufacturers and setting the stage for the current standoff.

Source: Epoch Times, November 28, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/25/11/28/n14645200.htm

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First China-Egypt Investment Forum Held in Cairo

CCP media outlet People’s Daily recently reported that the inaugural China–Egypt Investment Forum recently convened in Cairo, “bringing together more than 200 Chinese and Egyptian companies.” The event aimed to “deepen bilateral economic cooperation, highlight new investment opportunities, and create a stronger platform for industrial and commercial partnerships. It marks a significant step by both countries to further elevate their economic relationship and promote long-term cooperation.”

Egypt’s Minister of Investment and Foreign Trade, Hassan Hatib, said the Egyptian government is committed to attracting additional Chinese investment, expanding joint manufacturing and export bases, and strengthening the country’s industrial capabilities. He emphasized that Egypt “welcomes more Chinese enterprises and seeks to enhance collaboration in high-value sectors.”

Representing China, Vice Minister of Commerce Ling Ji noted that China has been Egypt’s largest trading partner for 13 consecutive years. He highlighted the achievements of the China–Egypt Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone, which now hosts nearly 200 companies, and stressed that China will continue supporting the development of Egypt’s industrial parks and investment environment.

Source: People’s Daily, November 12, 2025
https://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/pc/content/202511/12/content_30114463.html

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Over Seven Banks Have Removed 5-Year Fixed Deposits from Their Offerings

Jiemian News, an online outlet under Shanghai United Media Group, recently reported that Chinese banks are accelerating efforts to shorten the maturity of their liabilities at an unprecedented pace. This shift has led to a rare development in the financial market: five-year fixed deposits—long regarded as a cornerstone savings product—are quietly disappearing from the product lists of numerous banks, including China’s six major state-owned lenders. Even three-year fixed-deposit products have begun to vanish.

The withdrawal of five-year deposits began with small and medium-sized banks. Rather than isolated incidents, the trend has shown signs of multiple outbreaks and gradual spread across the sector. According to incomplete statistics, since October 2025, more than seven small and medium-sized banks in Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Beijing, and other regions have removed their five-year fixed-deposit offerings.

Analysts say the primary driver behind this shift is the widespread expectation of further interest-rate declines. To better manage risk and reduce the cost of long-term liabilities, many banks are adjusting their deposit-gathering strategies. The underlying pressure comes from the shrinking net interest margin (NIM)—a key profitability indicator for banks.

The industry generally considers a 1.8 percent NIM to be the minimum safe level for stable operations. However, the average NIM of Chinese banks has already fallen below 1.5 percent. Large state-owned commercial banks are seeing NIMs as low as 1.31 percent, with some major lenders dropping to 1.21 percent.

Sources:
(1) Jiemian, November 24, 2025
https://www.jiemian.com/article/13674700.html
(2) STCN, November 28, 2025
https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3517404.html

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