Economy/Resources - 2. page

A journal published by the Chinese Communist Party has warned that blindly pursuing export growth and trade surpluses carries significant risks to the country’s economic development, including crowding out industries tied to domestic demand. Analysts say the article signals that Beijing is paying increasing attention to concerns raised by trading partners such as the European Union over China’s massive trade surpluses.

The article, published on March 31 in Qiushi — the CCP’s flagship theoretical journal — acknowledged that China’s exports and trade surplus have grown substantially in recent years, attributing this not to government directives but to structural and industrial factors reflecting the strength of China’s manufacturing and supply chains.

However, the journal cautioned that bigger exports are not always better. Domestically, over-allocating resources to the export sector can squeeze industries serving internal demand and hinder the development of homegrown economic momentum. Externally, heavy reliance on exports makes the economy more vulnerable to global market fluctuations, and persistent surpluses can invite trade protectionism and friction.

The article stressed that balancing trade does not mean cutting exports, but rather expanding imports, optimizing trade structure, and moderately reducing surpluses. It also recommended lowering provisional import tariff rates on advanced technologies, critical equipment, energy resources, and quality consumer goods.

China’s trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion in 2025, with exports contributing nearly one-third of economic growth. Premier Li Qiang, speaking at the China Development Forum on March 22, pledged to import more quality foreign goods and said China does not pursue trade surpluses.

Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said Chinese policymakers are sending a clear signal that expanding domestic demand is now a long-term strategy. He noted that Beijing does not wish to sustain large surpluses indefinitely, as they increase geopolitical vulnerability, and that current surpluses largely reflect weak domestic demand that will gradually be addressed through policy measures.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), April 2, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202604020097.aspx

A recruitment fair organized under the “Spring Breeze Initiative and Employment Assistance Season” was held this afternoon at the Oriental Pearl Tower City Plaza in Shanghai’s Lujiazui district. The event drew 80 companies offering positions across finance, trade, technology, information services, and other sectors. Job seekers were seen moving between booths, résumés in hand, pitching themselves to recruiters in search of their next opportunity.

The Spring Breeze Initiative is a long-running employment program jointly promoted by nine government departments, including China’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. Launched annually after the Lunar New Year, it connects employers and job seekers through on-site fairs, online recruitment, and community employment service networks.

Despite the activity on the floor, attendees painted a bleak picture of the broader job market, with age discrimination emerging as a recurring theme. A job seeker in his 40s, surnamed Gao, said he was laid off after his company downsized and had been unemployed for over six months. While on-site booths rarely listed age requirements, he noted that many online postings explicitly state applicants must be “under 35.”

A 36-year-old surnamed Gong echoed that concern, saying anyone over 35 tends to be filtered out at the résumé screening stage. He left his previous job about a month ago due to excessive stress and is now targeting administrative roles, hoping for a monthly salary of 5,000 to 7,000 yuan (approximately $685 to $960 USD). “If I don’t make the jump now,” he said, “it’ll only get harder after 40.”

A 23-year-old recent graduate surnamed Wang relocated from Shandong to Shanghai seeking better pay in electrical engineering. Despite submitting many online applications, he has received few responses, which he attributed to stiff competition and, perhaps, his academic credentials.

The job fair comes as China’s government continues to prioritize employment stability amid slowing economic growth. The 2026 Government Work Report set targets of keeping the urban unemployment rate around 5.5 percent and adding over 12 million new urban jobs. Compounding the pressure, China’s Ministry of Human Resources estimates that 12.7 million college graduates will enter the workforce this year — a new record high.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 28, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202603280184.aspx

A prominent Chinese economist recently described China’s economy as a study in stark contrasts — blazing hot in some sectors, bitterly cold in others.

Mao Zhenhua, a professor at the University of Hong Kong’s Business School, made the remarks at a forum analyzing the outcomes of China’s “Two Sessions” — the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference — held earlier this month. The sessions approved China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, covering 2026 to 2030.

On the bright side, Mao noted significant technological advances over the past five years. Young people’s enthusiasm for the tech sector, combined with the wealth-generating capacity of capital markets, has boosted social efficiency. Driven by technological progress and private enterprise, China’s exports have also performed well despite a volatile global trade environment. In these areas, he said, the economy is running hot.

However, Mao painted a sobering picture elsewhere. China has entered its 12th consecutive quarter of deflation, with prices remaining persistently low. Declining corporate profits have slowed wage growth, and weakening investment appetite contributed to a historic contraction in investment last year.

“Outside of high-tech and exports, you know just how cold the economy really is,” he said.

Youth unemployment among those aged 16 to 24 remains stubbornly high despite government efforts. A fading demographic dividend — and the prospect of negative population growth — poses further long-term risks.

While the new Five-Year Plan prioritizes breakthroughs in high-tech and expanding domestic demand, Mao expressed skepticism. Investment is hard to stimulate due to a lack of attractive projects, while boosting consumer spending is equally challenging. With companies struggling to turn profits, taxes remaining high, and employment pressures mounting, he argued that meaningfully raising household incomes — and thus consumer spending — will be an uphill battle.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 28, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202603280065.aspx

Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD reported annual revenue of 803.9 billion yuan (approximately $110.6 billion USD) for 2024, a modest 3 percent increase year-on-year. However, net profit fell 18 percent to 32.6 billion yuan (approximately $4.5 billion USD), marking the company’s first “growth without profit” financial report in four years. BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu described the EV industry as enduring a brutal “elimination round.”

Despite the profit squeeze, BYD achieved record sales of 4.6024 million vehicles in 2024, placing it among the world’s top five automakers and retaining its title as the global leader in new energy vehicle sales. The company’s international footprint expanded significantly, with operations in 119 countries and overseas sales reaching 1.05 million units. Total sales for 2025 are projected to hit 5.12 million vehicles.

Monthly domestic sales were inconsistent in the second half of 2024, with BYD failing to break the 500,000-unit monthly threshold in Q4. October, November, and December figures came in at 441,700, 480,200, and 420,400 units respectively. Overseas revenue reached 310.7 billion yuan (approximately $42.8 billion USD), accounting for roughly 38 percent of total revenue, an increasing share compared to the previous year.

The broader context is China’s overcapacity crisis in the EV sector. After 13 years of government subsidies ending in 2022, China’s EV output surged to over 12.8 million vehicles in 2024, yet nearly half of production capacity sits idle. To offload excess supply, Chinese automakers have engaged in a fierce price war, with EV prices dropping 9.2 percent in 2024 and profit margins shrinking to just 4.3 percent. BYD itself launched an aggressive new pricing round in May 2024 with discounts as steep as 34 percent, drawing sharp criticism from industry peers and state media alike.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 28, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202603280134.aspx

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that, China’s export trade is robust, and many of its industries lead the world. However, due to the double blow of domestic deflation and a weakening yuan, China’s share of the global economy has shrunk significantly.

In dollar terms, China’s GDP accounted for a peak of approximately 18.5 percent of the global economy in 2021, at which time its economy was about three-quarters the size of the United States. Many economists predicted that China’s explosive growth would eventually make its economy surpass that of the United States. Contrary to expectations, China’s share of the global economy has now declined, falling to approximately 16.5 percent by the end of 2025. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China’s current economy is less than two-thirds the size of the United States.

However, the combined effects of domestic deflation and a weakening yuan have reduced the relative size of the Chinese economy, denominated in US dollars. Deflation has lowered the value of goods and services in the economy. As a result, even though China produces a record number of goods, the dollar value of its output has stagnated.

For multinational corporations, the shrinking share of China in the global economy is worrying, as the returns they receive from their investments in China have shrunk when converted into US dollars.

Source: CNA, March 20, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202603200296.aspx