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China Faces Rising Social Security Dropout Rates

Recent online analyses of social security data from several Chinese cities—including Lishui, Baiyin, Xuancheng, Tongling, Foshan, and Pu’er—suggest varying levels of contribution gaps between eligible contributors and actual payments. Estimates indicate that the highest non-payment rate was in Lishui, Zhejiang Province, at about 55.2 percent, followed by Baiyin, Gansu Province (41.2 percent) and Xuancheng, Anhui Province (30.2 percent), with lower rates in other cities. These calculations, based on publicly available data, have circulated online and sparked discussion.

A separate circulating estimate suggests that by the first quarter of 2025, approximately 42 million people nationwide may have stopped contributing to urban employee pension schemes, representing about 17.8 percent of participants. The trend appears more pronounced among individuals aged 25 to 35, with some observers attributing it to uncertainty about future returns from the pension system.

Under China’s social security system, individuals are generally required to continue contributions when unemployed or self-employed. However, some individuals report prioritizing immediate living expenses over long-term pension payments, particularly amid income volatility and economic uncertainty.

Source: Radio Free Asia, March 31, 2026
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/shehui/2026/03/31/china-economy-social-security-pension-insurance/

China’s Universities Rapidly Cutting Traditional Majors Amid AI and Market Pressures

Driven by the rise of artificial intelligence, shifting employment trends, and structural changes in industry, Chinese universities have been accelerating the elimination of academic programs in recent years. Traditional majors in management, languages, the arts, and select engineering and humanities disciplines have become the primary targets for cuts.

Shanghai University of Electric Power recently reviewed a restructuring plan proposing to add three new programs — resource recycling science, smart grid information engineering, and energy economics — while discontinuing enrollment in environmental engineering, optoelectronic information science, and information and computational science, and fully eliminating its public administration department.

The trend is widespread. Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics halted enrollment in eight programs in 2025, including urban management, Japanese, and logistics management, while scrapping its public administration and digital media arts departments entirely. Hubei University of Arts and Science similarly announced plans to eliminate several programs including logistics engineering and automotive service engineering.

Statistics cited in the report show that between 2020 and 2024, the five most frequently eliminated majors nationwide were information management and information systems (160 programs cut), public administration (138), information and computational science (123), marketing (104), and product design (93).

Arts programs have also faced heavy cuts. At this year’s national political advisory sessions, a university party secretary made headlines by announcing the elimination of 16 undergraduate programs and tracks, including translation and photography. Jilin University suspended 19 programs, six of them in the arts. Analysts note that AI has particularly disrupted the design and arts fields.

Sichuan University has trimmed its total number of programs from 144 to 105 since 2019 — a reduction of 39 — as part of a broader national push to expand science, engineering, and medicine programs while scaling back oversaturated fields like economics, management, and the arts.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), April 4, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202604040059.aspx

China Expands Digital Yuan Network to 22 Operators

China’s central bank has announced the addition of 12 new institutions to its digital yuan operating network, bringing the total number of authorized operators to 22 following the latest expansion.

The newly added institutions include China CITIC Bank, China Everbright Bank, Hua Xia Bank, China Minsheng Bank, Guangfa Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Zheshang Bank, Bank of Ningbo, Bank of Jiangsu, Bank of Beijing, Bank of Nanjing, and Bank of Suzhou. These institutions will begin offering digital yuan services once they have completed the necessary business and technical preparations.

The expansion is closely tied to China’s broader push to promote its digital yuan pilot program, which was launched in late 2019. The pilot has since grown to cover Beijing and numerous other major cities across the country.

The People’s Bank of China stated that it will continue to expand the roster of operating institutions in an orderly manner, guided by principles of market orientation and the rule of law. The central bank emphasized its intention to further stimulate the enthusiasm and creativity of market participants, while fostering an open, inclusive, and fair competitive environment for the development of the digital yuan.

In a related international development, Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina noted that Russia’s digital ruble platform is technically prepared to connect with the systems of other countries, signaling potential cross-border interoperability between the two nations’ central bank digital currencies in the future.

Source: Sputnik News, April 3, 2026
https://sputniknews.cn/20260403/1070591389.html

Middle East Tensions Disrupt Supply Chains, Raising Costs for China’s High-Tech Industries

Escalating tensions in the Middle East are increasing risks to energy supplies, with spillover effects reaching China’s manufacturing sector. While China’s power system—largely reliant on coal—can maintain basic electricity stability, key industries such as petrochemicals, synthetic fibers, and semiconductors remain heavily dependent on oil and liquefied natural gas from the region.

Chinese companies are already experiencing ripple effects. BYD has warned that rising prices for electrolyte solvents and battery separator chemicals could increase per-vehicle costs by 3,000–5,000 yuan (US$440–730) in the second quarter. CATL is accelerating domestic lithium mining and recycling efforts while adjusting logistics to reduce maritime risks. Huawei is reportedly implementing price-protection measures for some products, SMIC is facing pressure on supplies of advanced semiconductor materials, and Xiaomi has issued warnings of potential product shortages due to raw material constraints.

The core supply shock stems from shortages of petrochemical feedstocks. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have reduced Asia’s naphtha supply by about 40 percent, driving up prices of upstream chemicals such as phenol and acetone by 28 percent in mid-March. This, in turn, is increasing costs for semiconductor packaging and PCB production. Several PCB manufacturers have raised prices by 12–15 percent, while shortages of engineering plastics such as polycarbonate and polyamide have forced some suppliers to suspend deliveries. With Brent crude prices exceeding $115 per barrel and competition for energy resources intensifying, analysts warn that if supply constraints persist, global electronics prices could rise in the second quarter of 2026.

Source: Creaders.Net, March 25, 2026
https://news.creaders.net/china/2026/03/25/2985695.html

China’s Communist Party Journal Warns Against Blindly Chasing Trade Surpluses

A journal published by the Chinese Communist Party has warned that blindly pursuing export growth and trade surpluses carries significant risks to the country’s economic development, including crowding out industries tied to domestic demand. Analysts say the article signals that Beijing is paying increasing attention to concerns raised by trading partners such as the European Union over China’s massive trade surpluses.

The article, published on March 31 in Qiushi — the CCP’s flagship theoretical journal — acknowledged that China’s exports and trade surplus have grown substantially in recent years, attributing this not to government directives but to structural and industrial factors reflecting the strength of China’s manufacturing and supply chains.

However, the journal cautioned that bigger exports are not always better. Domestically, over-allocating resources to the export sector can squeeze industries serving internal demand and hinder the development of homegrown economic momentum. Externally, heavy reliance on exports makes the economy more vulnerable to global market fluctuations, and persistent surpluses can invite trade protectionism and friction.

The article stressed that balancing trade does not mean cutting exports, but rather expanding imports, optimizing trade structure, and moderately reducing surpluses. It also recommended lowering provisional import tariff rates on advanced technologies, critical equipment, energy resources, and quality consumer goods.

China’s trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion in 2025, with exports contributing nearly one-third of economic growth. Premier Li Qiang, speaking at the China Development Forum on March 22, pledged to import more quality foreign goods and said China does not pursue trade surpluses.

Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said Chinese policymakers are sending a clear signal that expanding domestic demand is now a long-term strategy. He noted that Beijing does not wish to sustain large surpluses indefinitely, as they increase geopolitical vulnerability, and that current surpluses largely reflect weak domestic demand that will gradually be addressed through policy measures.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), April 2, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202604020097.aspx

Age Bias and a Tough Job Market Cast Shadow Over Shanghai Job Fair

A recruitment fair organized under the “Spring Breeze Initiative and Employment Assistance Season” was held this afternoon at the Oriental Pearl Tower City Plaza in Shanghai’s Lujiazui district. The event drew 80 companies offering positions across finance, trade, technology, information services, and other sectors. Job seekers were seen moving between booths, résumés in hand, pitching themselves to recruiters in search of their next opportunity.

The Spring Breeze Initiative is a long-running employment program jointly promoted by nine government departments, including China’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. Launched annually after the Lunar New Year, it connects employers and job seekers through on-site fairs, online recruitment, and community employment service networks.

Despite the activity on the floor, attendees painted a bleak picture of the broader job market, with age discrimination emerging as a recurring theme. A job seeker in his 40s, surnamed Gao, said he was laid off after his company downsized and had been unemployed for over six months. While on-site booths rarely listed age requirements, he noted that many online postings explicitly state applicants must be “under 35.”

A 36-year-old surnamed Gong echoed that concern, saying anyone over 35 tends to be filtered out at the résumé screening stage. He left his previous job about a month ago due to excessive stress and is now targeting administrative roles, hoping for a monthly salary of 5,000 to 7,000 yuan (approximately $685 to $960 USD). “If I don’t make the jump now,” he said, “it’ll only get harder after 40.”

A 23-year-old recent graduate surnamed Wang relocated from Shandong to Shanghai seeking better pay in electrical engineering. Despite submitting many online applications, he has received few responses, which he attributed to stiff competition and, perhaps, his academic credentials.

The job fair comes as China’s government continues to prioritize employment stability amid slowing economic growth. The 2026 Government Work Report set targets of keeping the urban unemployment rate around 5.5 percent and adding over 12 million new urban jobs. Compounding the pressure, China’s Ministry of Human Resources estimates that 12.7 million college graduates will enter the workforce this year — a new record high.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 28, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202603280184.aspx

China’s Economy: A Tale of Two Temperatures

A prominent Chinese economist recently described China’s economy as a study in stark contrasts — blazing hot in some sectors, bitterly cold in others.

Mao Zhenhua, a professor at the University of Hong Kong’s Business School, made the remarks at a forum analyzing the outcomes of China’s “Two Sessions” — the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference — held earlier this month. The sessions approved China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, covering 2026 to 2030.

On the bright side, Mao noted significant technological advances over the past five years. Young people’s enthusiasm for the tech sector, combined with the wealth-generating capacity of capital markets, has boosted social efficiency. Driven by technological progress and private enterprise, China’s exports have also performed well despite a volatile global trade environment. In these areas, he said, the economy is running hot.

However, Mao painted a sobering picture elsewhere. China has entered its 12th consecutive quarter of deflation, with prices remaining persistently low. Declining corporate profits have slowed wage growth, and weakening investment appetite contributed to a historic contraction in investment last year.

“Outside of high-tech and exports, you know just how cold the economy really is,” he said.

Youth unemployment among those aged 16 to 24 remains stubbornly high despite government efforts. A fading demographic dividend — and the prospect of negative population growth — poses further long-term risks.

While the new Five-Year Plan prioritizes breakthroughs in high-tech and expanding domestic demand, Mao expressed skepticism. Investment is hard to stimulate due to a lack of attractive projects, while boosting consumer spending is equally challenging. With companies struggling to turn profits, taxes remaining high, and employment pressures mounting, he argued that meaningfully raising household incomes — and thus consumer spending — will be an uphill battle.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 28, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202603280065.aspx

BYD Posts Revenue Growth but Profit Decline Amid China’s EV Price War

Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD reported annual revenue of 803.9 billion yuan (approximately $110.6 billion USD) for 2024, a modest 3 percent increase year-on-year. However, net profit fell 18 percent to 32.6 billion yuan (approximately $4.5 billion USD), marking the company’s first “growth without profit” financial report in four years. BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu described the EV industry as enduring a brutal “elimination round.”

Despite the profit squeeze, BYD achieved record sales of 4.6024 million vehicles in 2024, placing it among the world’s top five automakers and retaining its title as the global leader in new energy vehicle sales. The company’s international footprint expanded significantly, with operations in 119 countries and overseas sales reaching 1.05 million units. Total sales for 2025 are projected to hit 5.12 million vehicles.

Monthly domestic sales were inconsistent in the second half of 2024, with BYD failing to break the 500,000-unit monthly threshold in Q4. October, November, and December figures came in at 441,700, 480,200, and 420,400 units respectively. Overseas revenue reached 310.7 billion yuan (approximately $42.8 billion USD), accounting for roughly 38 percent of total revenue, an increasing share compared to the previous year.

The broader context is China’s overcapacity crisis in the EV sector. After 13 years of government subsidies ending in 2022, China’s EV output surged to over 12.8 million vehicles in 2024, yet nearly half of production capacity sits idle. To offload excess supply, Chinese automakers have engaged in a fierce price war, with EV prices dropping 9.2 percent in 2024 and profit margins shrinking to just 4.3 percent. BYD itself launched an aggressive new pricing round in May 2024 with discounts as steep as 34 percent, drawing sharp criticism from industry peers and state media alike.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 28, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202603280134.aspx