Geo-Strategic Trend - 25. page

Huanqiu Times published an editorial on Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s visit to China on July 15 for attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting held in Tianjin and also making an official visit to China on the sidelines. It called it the first visit to China by an Indian foreign minister in five years, signaling that China–India relations are “starting to improve.”

The article listed several “practical issues between China and India” to be resolved:

• The border issue continues to be the most sensitive and complex aspect of bilateral relations. Establishing a stable and effective border trust mechanism, restoring strategic dialogue platforms, and enhancing multi-level security cooperation are essential steps for moving China–India relations toward maturity.
• Concrete, tangible improvements can help foster mutual trust at the societal level, including promoting the resumption of direct flights, restarting cultural and people-to-people exchanges, and strengthening academic and think tank interactions.
• Cooperation on multilateral platforms such as SCO and BRICS could be improved.

The article also warned that improving China–India relations will not happen overnight. Strategic mutual trust cannot be built through a single meeting or a single joint statement. Instead, it must be accumulated through long-term, continuous, and measurable engagement. What it requires is sustained political will, pragmatic consultation mechanisms, and – most importantly – mutual respect for each other’s core concerns.

Source: Huanqiu Times, July 14, 2025
https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/4NUoO9YeyXA

Japan-China diplomatic relations have encountered fresh complications following the sentencing of a Japanese employee from Astellas Pharma, casting shadows over what had been signs of improving bilateral ties.

The conviction has emerged as a significant obstacle to improving public sentiment between the two nations, according to Japanese Ambassador to China Kenji Kanasugi, who attended the court proceedings in Beijing. This development comes despite recent positive diplomatic momentum, including the first summit meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Chinese President Xi Jinping in November 2024.

Following that meeting, China had shown responsiveness to Japanese concerns by resuming visa-free short-term entry for Japanese citizens and announcing the restoration of Japanese seafood imports, which had been suspended due to the Fukushima nuclear plant’s treated water discharge. Beijing also began preparations for Japanese beef exports to China this month.

The timing of the sentencing during Japan’s crucial Upper House election period has raised questions among Japanese government officials. The Astellas employee received a 3.5-year prison term for alleged espionage activities, which some observers considered shorter than expected, possibly reflecting China’s consideration of bilateral relations. However, another Japanese man detained on similar charges received a 12-year sentence in May.

The case highlights the tension between China’s economic outreach to Japan, particularly as Beijing faces trade conflicts with the Trump administration, and Xi Jinping’s emphasis on national security. In February, Xi reiterated the paramount importance of defending national political security, signaling that such priorities may override diplomatic considerations with Japan.

Despite efforts to maintain diplomatic harmony, China has increased military pressure on Japan. Chinese aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong conducted joint exercises near Japanese waters for the first time, while Chinese military aircraft have repeatedly approached Japanese Self-Defense Force planes. China has defended these activities as legitimate, urging Japan to view them “objectively and rationally.”

Adding to the pressure, China is preparing commemorative activities related to the Second Sino-Japanese War, including a military parade on September 3 to mark the 80th anniversary of victory in the Anti-Japanese War, contributing to what Japanese officials describe as growing pressure from Beijing.

Source: Kyodo News, July 17, 2025
https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2025/07/826cb3ab3453–.html

The number of Japanese residents living in China for business, study, and other purposes continues to decrease as incidents involving Japanese nationals detained on espionage charges and violent crimes targeting Japanese citizens persist.

According to Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Japanese expatriate population in China (those residing for three months or longer, as of October) totaled 97,538 in 2024, down 4,248 from the previous year. This marks the first time in twenty years that the figure has fallen below 100,000.

China had maintained its position as the second-largest destination for Japanese overseas residents since 2003, trailing only the United States. However, in 2024, Australia surpassed China, pushing it to third place.

The Japanese population in China had grown steadily during China’s rapid economic development, particularly around the 2008 Beijing Olympics and 2010 Shanghai World Expo, as Japanese companies accelerated their expansion into the market. The expatriate population peaked at over 150,000 in 2012 before beginning a continuous decline. That same year, large-scale anti-Japanese protests erupted across China, severely damaging bilateral relations and halting personnel exchanges.

Beijing, where an Astellas Pharma employee was recently convicted on espionage charges, saw its Japanese population drop to 4,914 in 2024—falling below 5,000 for the first time since 2000. This figure is now lower than Japanese populations in Taipei, Manila, and Hanoi. Between 2005 and 2012, over 10,000 Japanese residents lived in Beijing.

Previously, information gathering through exchanges with central government agencies and major corporations concentrated in the capital was highly valued. However, with frequent detentions of Japanese nationals on espionage suspicions, stationed personnel have become cautious, fearing that “exchanges might be interpreted as espionage activities.” This has made Japanese companies increasingly hesitant about employee assignments.

Shanghai, which had the largest Japanese population among Chinese cities with over 50,000 residents in the 2010s, recorded 34,681 Japanese residents in 2024, a decrease of more than 2,000 from the previous year. The decline is also attributed to Japanese companies increasingly pursuing “localization” strategies by hiring Chinese staff locally to reduce costs.

Source: Kyodo News, July 17, 2025
https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2025/07/89646ac11964–10.html

U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced that the United States will impose a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian imports starting August 1. He also demanded that Brazil halt its judicial investigation into former President Jair Bolsonaro. In response, the Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva strongly condemned Trump’s remarks and pledged a “reciprocal response.”

Chinese media characterized the U.S. tariff threat as politically motivated, aimed at interfering in Latin America’s domestic affairs and foreign policy.

The Huanqiu Times outlined three main reasons behind Trump’s move:

1. To support former President Bolsonaro, a key figure in Brazil’s far-right political movement.
2. To influence the outcome of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election.
3. To undermine the BRICS-led push for “de-dollarization,” which Lula has championed for years.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Brazilian government and public are clearly rejecting a return of U.S. hegemony in Latin America. It cited three reasons for Lula’s firm stance against Washington:

1. The U.S. ran a $7 billion trade surplus with Brazil in 2024, and over the past 15 years has accumulated a total goods and services surplus of approximately $410 billion. “If anyone should be imposing tariffs,” Lula said, “it should be us on the United States.”
2. Trade with the U.S. accounts for only 1.7 percent of Brazil’s GDP, giving Lula room to resist pressure.
3. Lula’s government has long advocated for national autonomy and firmly opposes what it sees as interference from the Trump administration.

Sources:
1. Huanqiu Times, July 10, 2025
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/4NRJ8EEKKLD
2. Xinhua, July 14, 2025
http://www.xinhuanet.com/mrdx/20250714/5738af8433724e80b12190cf11def87a/c.html

South Korea’s largest media outlet, JoongAng Ilbo, reported on July 11 that the country is facing a major territorial threat from China. Unlike the direct conflict of the long-standing tension between North Korea and South Korea, China is quietly advancing a “Yellow Sea Project,” aiming to turn the Yellow Sea – the body of water between China and South Korea – into China’s own maritime territory. This could have serious consequences for South Korea, JoongAng Ilbo reported.

Due to overlapping Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), South Korea and China agreed in 2000 to jointly manage a Provisional Measure Zone (PMZ), allowing fishing by Chinese boats but banning facility construction and resource development. Since 2018, however, China has installed large steel structures in the PMZ, allegedly for the purpose of aquaculture but potentially usable for military purposes. Seoul’s protests against Beijing’s actions have gone unanswered. In February 2025, a South Korean research vessel was blocked and threatened by Chinese forces when approaching the area.

The JoongAng Ilbo article suggests that South Korea consider building similar structures, citing Vietnam’s example in the South China Sea. The article criticizes the Korean government’s weak stance and urges stronger resolve to protect the country’s maritime sovereignty.

Source: Epoch Times, July 11, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/25/7/10/n14549090.htm

China has adopted a new approach to counter what it perceives as Western media and political criticism by inviting popular European and American influencers to livestream from China and showcase “the real China,” according to recent analysis.

Following the successful visit of American influencer “Speed” (IShowSpeed), who has 38 million followers, China is now courting the world’s top two influencers by follower count: “Mr Beast” and “Khaby Lame.” According to China News Weekly, a Beijing-based Chinese outlet, Mr Beast is expected to visit China as early as the fourth quarter of this year to film a large-scale challenge show, while Khaby Lame joined Chinese social media platforms in July with exclusive content and plans to tour China.

Speed’s China trip in the spring proved highly successful, showing American audiences “clean streets, modern cities, convenient mobile payments, efficient high-speed rail, and affordable new energy vehicles.” During his 17-day visit to eight Chinese cities, he conducted eight livestreams with an average viewership of 8.2 million, generating over 2 billion total views.

This represents Beijing’s new foreign publicity strategy: rather than relying on official messaging with limited impact, China is leveraging overseas top-tier influencers to personally experience the country and influence young international audiences using their own communication styles.

Khaby Lame, an Italian-Senegalese creator known for his wordless reaction videos, has 259 million followers, while Mr Beast, an American known for creative and high-budget content, boasts 600 million followers. Beyond targeting top influencers, China is reportedly launching a “China-Global Young Influencer Exchange Program,” recruiting American influencers with at least 300,000 followers to collaborate with Chinese content creators.

This strategy marks a significant shift from traditional diplomatic communication to leveraging social media influence for international outreach.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), July 11, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202507110100.aspx