Geo-Strategic Trend

Huanqiu Times: Strategic Thinking Behind Japan’s Turn Toward Central Asia

Japan held its first-ever summit with the five Central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan — in Tokyo from December 19 to 20, concluding with the adoption of the Tokyo Declaration.

The declaration commits Japan and the five countries to strengthening economic ties and advancing practical cooperation. Key initiatives include a target of ¥3 trillion (approximately USD 20 billion) in business projects in Central Asia over the next five years, cooperation to reinforce supply chains for critical minerals in light of the region’s abundant natural resources, and the establishment of partnerships in artificial intelligence. It also calls for expanded cooperation on the Trans-Caspian transport corridor linking Central Asia with Europe, as well as joint efforts to uphold a free and open international order based on the rule of law.

Huanqiu Times commented that, from a geopolitical perspective, Central Asia has traditionally fallen within Russia’s sphere of influence and is also a key partner in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. By deepening ties with Central Asian states, Japan aims to expand its diplomatic footprint across Eurasia and enhance its strategic influence.

The commentary outlined several strategic considerations behind Japan’s approach. First, energy and resource security is a central concern, as the region possesses significant reserves of oil, natural gas, rare metals, and particularly Kazakhstan’s uranium resources. Second, Japan seeks to align with U.S. Central Asia strategy and cooperate in building resilient supply chains for critical resources. Third, Tokyo aims to promote the Trans-Caspian corridor to improve access to external markets for landlocked Central Asian countries. Fourth, Japan is seeking to balance and constrain Russia’s geopolitical pressure, especially as it affects Japan’s security environment in the Far East.

Sources:
1. NHK, December 20, 2025
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/zh/news/20251220_10/
2. Huanqiu Times, December 19, 2025
https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/4Pbzcf5AxsL

Briefings | | December 26, 2025 | Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese Buyers Leads Foreign Land Acquisitions in Japan’s Security-Sensitive Areas

The Japanese government has released data revealing that approximately 3 percent of land and buildings acquired in nationally significant security zones during the 2024 fiscal year were purchased by foreign individuals or entities, with mainland Chinese buyers accounting for nearly half of these foreign acquisitions. According to NHK reporting, this information comes as Japan implements stricter controls over strategically important properties near military and critical infrastructure sites.

Japanese law now regulates land purchases in areas deemed crucial for national security. The government has designated zones surrounding Self-Defense Force facilities, nuclear power plants, and other vital installations as either “areas of concern” or “areas of special concern” under this legal framework. The recent data covers all land and building transactions within these protected zones throughout the 2024 fiscal year.

Of the 113,827 newly acquired properties identified within these security-sensitive areas, 3,498 transactions involved foreign buyers, representing 3.1 percent of the total. Mainland Chinese individuals and corporations led with 1,674 acquisitions, followed by Taiwan with 414 purchases and South Korea with 378 transactions.

Under current legislation, the government possesses authority to issue orders or advisories if land use within these zones interferes with the functioning of important facilities. Authorities can demand cessation of specific land activities deemed problematic. However, the government confirmed that no cases warranting such intervention were identified during this statistical survey period, suggesting all foreign acquisitions complied with existing regulations and posed no immediate concerns to national security operations.

Source: NHK, December 16, 2025
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/zh/news/20251216_ML04/

Briefings | | December 26, 2025 | Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

UDN: Germany’s Exports to US Expected to Decline While Deficit with China to Reach New High

United Daily News (UDN), one of the primary Taiwanese news groups, recently reported that Germany’s Trade and Investment Agency (GTAI) said, by the end of 2025, German exports to the United States are expected to decline sharply, while the trade deficit with China will reach a record high. GTAI analysis points to U.S. tariff policies, weak demand in the U.S. and Chinese markets, and German companies shifting production to China as the main reasons.

GTAI estimated that Germany’s exports will grow by only 0.6 percent in 2025, totaling approximately 1.6 trillion Euros. Germany’s exports to its largest export market, the United States, are projected to decline by 7.3 percent compared to 2024.

Germany’s core manufacturing sector also faces competitive pressure from China – machinery manufacturing as an example. German car exports are projected to decline by approximately 3.2 percent too, primarily due to weak demand in the Chinese market and competition from Chinese electric vehicles. Germany’s total exports to China are projected to decline by approximately 10 percent in 2025.

On the import side, Germany’s reliance on China continues to deepen. GTAI projects that Germany’s imports from China increases by 7.2 percent annually, making China Germany’s largest supplier of goods. With declining exports and continuously expanding imports, Germany’s trade deficit with China will climb to approximately 87 billion Euros, a record high according to GTAI.

Source: UDN, December 15, 2025
https://money.udn.com/money/story/5599/9204967

Briefings | | December 23, 2025 | Geo-Strategic Trend

Taiwan Troops Will Act Without Waiting for Central Orders If China Launches a Sudden Attack

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said that if China announces a complex military operation around the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan will raise its alert level, immediately conduct combat-readiness drills, and take steps to prevent the situation from escalating from a military exercise into actual conflict.

The ministry added that in the event of a sudden attack, Taiwan’s military units would act without waiting for centralized orders, relying on a decentralized command structure to carry out combat operations swiftly and effectively.

The remarks were made as the Legislative Yuan’s Foreign and National Defense Committee held a briefing on potential conflict hotspots in and around the Taiwan Strait. In a written report, the Defense Ministry emphasized that, in response to China’s expanding military capabilities, Taiwan and other Indo-Pacific countries are strengthening multilateral cooperation and defense preparedness. Taiwan is also closely monitoring China’s military activities and potential future moves to ensure early warning and rapid response.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), December 17, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202512150263.aspx

Briefings | | December 23, 2025 | Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

EU Warns China Is “Weaponizing” Economic Relationships and Calls for Unity in Response

On December 15, EU Vice President and High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas warned that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is increasingly using economic ties as a tool of political pressure against other countries.

Speaking after a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, Kallas said China is “weaponizing economic relationships,” and stressed that the European Union must strengthen its trade and security strategies to respond effectively. She outlined key measures including diversifying supply chains, tightening regulations in critical industries, and developing mechanisms to counter economic coercion.

Kallas emphasized that no single EU member state can address these challenges alone, underscoring that unity within the EU is essential to safeguard economic security and reduce strategic dependencies.

Source: Epoch Times, December 16, 2025
https://hk.epochtimes.com/news/2025-12-16/27356044

Briefings | | December 23, 2025 | @CS Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

RFI: Chinese Tourist Arrivals to Japan Continued to Grow Despite Travel Warnings

Radio France Internationale (RFI) recently reported that the Japan Tourism Agency said the ongoing diplomatic crisis between Japan and China has had little impact on overall inbound tourism, with the number of tourists visiting Japan in November increasing by 10.4 percent compared to the same period last year. The growth rate of tourists from mainland China still reached three percent in November.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks about “Taiwan in trouble” have drawn the ire of the Chinese government, and the current diplomatic dispute between China and Japan continues. Subsequently, in mid-November, the Chinese government issued travel warnings to its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. China’s three major airlines cooperated with the government’s measure, reducing the number of flights to Japan until the end of March 2026.

Since the beginning of 2025, tourists from mainland China have been the largest group of visitors to Japan, accounting for nearly a quarter of the total number of tourists entering Japan. Currently, the growth in the number of tourists entering Japan is mainly brought by tourists from South Korea, Taiwan and the United States.

Source: RFI, December 17, 2025
https://tinyurl.com/48sp6yxf

Briefings | | December 23, 2025 | Geo-Strategic Trend

Media Reports Beijing Sets “Three Conditions” for a KMT–Xi Jinping Meeting

Singapore-based Lianhe Zaobao reported that Taiwan’s Liberty Times, citing sources from Beijing’s Taiwan affairs system and within the Kuomintang (KMT), said Song Tao, director of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Taiwan Affairs Office, stated that if the KMT seeks a “Zheng–Xi meeting” — a summit between the KMT and the CCP’s top leader — it must demonstrate a “firm commitment to following the correct course of history” and meet three specific conditions.

These three demands, privately referred to within the KMT as the “three tickets,” reportedly include:

Blocking the military procurement budget proposed by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government to purchase U.S. weapons. Commentators noted this has already happened, as the KMT and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) in the Legislative Yuan have twice blocked a NT$1.25 trillion (US$40 billion) special defense budget.
Immediately halt legislative efforts framed as national security measures that restrict or discriminate against mainland Chinese spouses, as well as mainland Chinese business and investment in Taiwan. Commentators said this has also occurred, noting that KMT legislators recently proposed amendments to the Nationality Act that would allow mainland Chinese spouses holding PRC nationality to run for public office in Taiwan without renouncing their Chinese citizenship. Critics argue that family-reunification channels for mainland spouses have become an important avenue for CCP agents to infiltrate Taiwan’s political system.
Beijing would welcome the KMT firmly restating unification with China as its central strategic goal, while also proposing institutional reforms and concrete actions to eliminate systems deemed unfriendly or harmful to that objective.

According to the report, KMT vice chairpersons visited mainland China several times in recent months to discuss these issues with Song Tao, ultimately securing Beijing’s agreement to hold the “Zheng–Xi meeting” around the Lunar New Year. The KMT rejected the “three tickets” report, denouncing it as fabricated.

Sources:
1. Lianhe Zaobao, December 8, 2025
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20251208-7932502
2. Epoch Times, December 13, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/25/12/12/n14654310.htm

Briefings | | December 19, 2025 | Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

Japan Reports Foreign Purchases of Land in National Security–Sensitive Areas, China Leads

The Japanese government has released data on land and building acquisitions in areas deemed critical for national security in fiscal year 2024. Approximately 3 percent of these properties were acquired by foreign individuals or entities, with nearly half coming from mainland China.

Under Japanese law, land surrounding key facilities—such as Self-Defense Forces bases and nuclear power plants—is strictly regulated due to national security concerns.

In fiscal 2024, there were 113,827 newly acquired properties in these sensitive areas, of which 3,498 (3.1 percent) were obtained by foreign individuals or corporations. By region, mainland China accounted for 1,674 acquisitions, the highest number, followed by Taiwan with 414 and South Korea with 378.