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Geo-Strategic Trend

China Coast Guard Patrolled Diaoyu Islands for 357 Days in 2025

On January 30, Zhang Jianming, Director of the China Coast Guard, briefed the public on maritime rights protection and law-enforcement operations carried out over the five years since the implementation of the “China Coast Guard Law.” Zhang said that during this period, the China Coast Guard deployed vessels more than 550,000 times and aircraft over 6,000 times to conduct maritime rights-protection missions.

According to Zhang, the Coast Guard organized 134 patrols in the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands (also known as “Senkaku Islands” which both China and Japan claims sovereignty over), with patrol days around the islands reaching 357 in 2025. In addition, the Coast Guard has carried out regular rights-protection patrols in the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Yellow Sea, conducted law-enforcement patrols in waters surrounding Taiwan and its affiliated islands, and enforced control and management in the territorial waters and surrounding areas of Huangyan Island.

Zhang said the China Coast Guard has continuously refined its operational strategies to effectively respond to infringement activities by external parties. He added that the force has achieved new breakthroughs in integrated sea-and-air patrols around the Diaoyu Islands, shaped a new approach to maritime rights protection, and established a new framework for managing and controlling the Taiwan Strait in accordance with the one-China principle and the law.

Source: People’s Daily, January 30, 2026
http://society.people.com.cn/n1/2026/0130/c1008-40656339.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend

The Paper: Luoyang Molybdenum Swiftly Acquires Four Gold Mines in Brazil

Well-known new Chinese news site The Paper recently reported that, in less than a month, Luoyang Molybdenum Group (603993.SH/03993.HK), a Chinese domestic mining giant, has swiftly acquired four producing gold mines in Brazil.

Luoyang Molybdenum announced that, with the approval of its board, its controlling subsidiary, CMOC Limited, acquired 100 percent equity interests in three gold mining assets in Brazil from Canadian mining company Equinox Gold (TSX: EQX, NYSE-A: EQX), including the Aurizona Gold Mine, the RDM Gold Mine, and the Bahia Complex, for a total US$1.015 billion. The transaction is an all- cash acquisition.

The gold mine assets involved in the transaction comprise a total gold resource of 5.013 million ounces, with an average grade of 1.88 g/t; and gold reserves of 3.873 million ounces, with an average grade of 1.45 g/t. The acquisition will immediately contribute to the company’s production and profits, with a short-expected return on investment. The estimated annualized gold production in 2026 is 6-8 tons.

This acquisition marks another significant strategic move by Luoyang Molybdenum, following its acquisition of the Cangrejos Gold Mine in Ecuador for RMB 3 billion yuan (around US$ 431.75 million) in April 2025. It is expected to start production in 2028, with a designed annual output of 11.5 tons.

Source: The Paper, January 25, 2026
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32462402

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Panama’s Supreme Court Rules Ports Contract Unconstitutional, Beijing Responds

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that Panama’s Supreme Court has ruled unconstitutional the operation of two Panamanian ports by CK Hutchison Holdings, a Hong Kong-based international conglomerate company operating some 43 overseas ports. CK Hutchison’s share price plummeted following the ruling.

Following US President Trump’s earlier claims this year that the Panama Canal was under Chinese control and his vow to reclaim it, ports Panama Canal are at the center of geopolitical competition. CK Hutchison Holdings later announced it would sell its 43 overseas port operations, including the two Panama Canal ports, to an international consortium comprised of U.S. asset management giant BlackRock and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), owned by the Aponte family of Italian billionaires, for US$22.8 billion. This deal sparked discontent in Beijing, and Chinese regulators subsequently launched an investigation. CK Hutchison later announced its intention to invite Chinese state-owned shipping giant China COSCO Shipping to join the consortium.

With respect to the rulings by the Panamanian Supreme Court, CK Hutchison has limited options: it can file a motion for clarification of the Supreme Court’s decision, but cannot appeal. The company may also seek international arbitration. The Chinese Foreign Ministry criticized these Panama Supreme Court rulings as contrary to the laws governing Panama’s approval of the relevant franchise rights, stating that Beijing will “take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.”

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, January 30, 2026
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20260130-8232674

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Xinhua: Europe Seeks to Showcase Independent Capabilities in NATO Exercises

NATO has launched two major military exercises in Europe—”Operation Arctic Endurance 2026” in the Arctic and “Steadfast Dart 2026” in Central and Western Europe—but their scale, organization, and strategic messaging differ markedly from past routine drills. Rather than serving solely as tests of defensive readiness, these exercises appear shaped by the broader geopolitical environment, particularly growing U.S.–European strategic divergences and shifting priorities within the alliance.

For the first time, the Arctic-focused exercise, initiated by Denmark in Greenland, and the large-scale Steadfast Dart maneuver, led by Germany with participation from around 11 allied nations, reflect a stronger European leadership role and a reduced U.S. presence. According to the article, this signals Europe’s effort to demonstrate its capacity to manage regional security independently, marking a notable departure from NATO’s traditionally U.S.-dominated command structure.

However, Xinhua underscores significant underlying problems. Both exercises were reportedly organized in haste, marked by last-minute planning, equipment incompatibilities, and lower-than-expected participation from some members. Defense experts cited in the article characterize the drills as more symbolic than operationally substantive. These shortcomings, combined with divergent strategic objectives among European allies and constrained resources, point to deeper strains in NATO’s cohesion, interoperability, and overall ability to respond effectively to a major crisis.

Source: Xinhua, January 30, 2029
https://www.news.cn/milpro/20260130/f8323e59166a4dffb6500a11244b1ae5/c.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Beijing Rehearses “Maritime Militia” Strategy Against Taiwan

China has increasingly employed fishing vessels as part of its so-called “maritime militia” strategy, using civilian boats to assert control at sea while creating legal and moral dilemmas for its opponents. In January 2026, Beijing assembled roughly 1,400 Chinese fishing vessels into a floating maritime barrier stretching about 320 kilometers—widely interpreted as a rehearsal for a potential blockade of Taiwan. Similar operations in the past have reportedly involved more than 2,000 vessels arranged in formations exceeding 400 kilometers in length.

Independent media commentator Wen Zhao outlined three tactics of this maritime militia strategy.

Version 1.0:
Chinese fishing boats deliberately crossed other countries’ maritime “red lines,” provoking responses from foreign maritime law-enforcement agencies. When vessels were detained or crews arrested, China’s coast guard intervened under the pretext of defending fishermen’s rights, leading to standoffs, ramming incidents, and water-cannon exchanges. In some cases, naval forces were drawn in, creating a three-layered escalation model—fishing boats, coast guard, then navy. This approach has been used since 2012 in areas such as Scarborough Shoal against the Philippines and tends to be effective against countries with weaker maritime enforcement capabilities.

Version 2.0:
Against stronger maritime enforcers such as Japan, Chinese fishing vessels shifted from symbolic legal presence to active provocation. These boats deliberately cut across or collide with foreign coast guard patrol vessels, especially when Chinese maritime law-enforcement ships are nearby. According to Japanese police, the fishing boats often make sudden turns to block enforcement vessels, and if collisions occur, Chinese operators film and selectively edit footage to support its propaganda narratives against the foreign “bully.”

Version 3.0:
This method involves massing large numbers of fishing vessels into coordinated formations to support a blockade of Taiwan or to obstruct U.S. and Japanese military intervention. These slow-moving, densely packed formations exploit a legal gray zone, as military forces cannot lawfully attack civilian vessels. U.S. think tanks, including the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), have analyzed such scenarios and suggested countermeasures such as declaring military zone to prevent vessels from coming in, waiting for them to weaken due to fuel constraints, disrupting inter-vessel communications through electronic warfare, transiting the area before formations fully coalesce, or taking a detour route to bypass the formations.

Source: Gan Jing World, January 19, 2026
https://www.ganjingworld.com/video/1i8p0lkkjje6G3cHANsOJdBWk1n51c?playlist_id=1galt8gs0ti1LGq7DHJ5BZQ1q00p

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

The Paper: Europe Begins Discussions on Developing Its Own Nuclear Weapons

Well-known new Chinese news site The Paper recently reported that, amidst escalating tensions between Europe and the United States, calls for nuclear autonomy are growing louder within Europe. Senior European officials have stated that European countries are questioning the reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. European leaders are discussing whether they should rely more on nuclear-armed France and the United Kingdom than the United States, and even whether they should develop their own nuclear weapons.

European leaders’ discussions on how to defend against a nuclear-armed Russia without U.S. involvement were “both intense and productive,” with options including enhancing France’s nuclear capabilities, and redeploying French nuclear-capable bombers outside of France. Officials also indicated that proposals to provide non-nuclear-weapon European countries with relevant technological capabilities were under consideration as well.

These discussions could overturn decades of global efforts to reduce, rather than exacerbate, nuclear proliferation. There is currently a clear lack of mutual trust between Europe and the United States.

However, some commentators have expressed doubts about the prospects of European “nuclear autonomy.” They point out that France and the UK possess approximately 290 and 225 nuclear warheads respectively, which, even combined, cannot compare to the scale of the U.S. and Russia. Furthermore, the lack of maintenance and upgrades over decades makes it difficult to form an alternative to the U.S. nuclear umbrella. Furthermore, France and the UK will hold presidential and parliamentary elections in 2027 and 2029 respectively. If far-right forces in both countries come to power after the elections, the current government’s commitment to “nuclear independence” risks revocation.

Source: The Paper, January 23, 2026
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32448420

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Thousands of Foreign Workers Flee Scam Villages in Cambodia, Seek to Return Home

Thousands of foreign laborers from China, Indonesia, and several African countries have flooded into Phnom Penh after escaping scam villages—fraud compounds located near Cambodia’s borders—in hopes of returning to their home countries. Anti-human-trafficking organizations warn that many of those who fled are victims of forced labor and scam-related exploitation and remain in precarious and unsafe conditions. Growing international pressure has pushed the Cambodian government to intensify its crackdown on criminal networks behind the scam operations, arresting several foreign ringleaders. These actions reportedly triggered a mass exodus, with workers breaching compound security to reach the capital.

In Phnom Penh, hundreds of Chinese nationals—many without passports—are reportedly sleeping outdoors near the Chinese embassy, desperate to return home but unable to do so. Similar scenes have emerged at the Indonesian embassy and in nearby public parks, where Indonesian citizens are seeking assistance; embassy officials processed roughly 1,440 cases within a five-day period. Escapees have described harsh and abusive conditions inside the scam compounds and said they undertook dangerous journeys to reach the city. Cambodian authorities say they are determined to dismantle online scam operations and restore the country’s international image, while new regulations target landlords who shelter foreigners with criminal backgrounds. The government has also appealed for foreign assistance to provide temporary housing for those unable to leave Cambodia.

Source: Epoch Times, January 24, 2026
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/26/1/23/n14682626.htm

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

CNA: U.S. AI Supply Chain Alliance Adds New Member

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) just signed documents to join a U.S.-led alliance named Pax Silica for supply chain cooperation in artificial intelligence (AI) and key minerals.

Washington launched this economic security initiative last year in an effort to counter China’s growing influence in advanced technology. Pax Silica currently has nine member states: South Korea, the United States, Australia, Israel, Japan, Qatar, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates. The U.S. State Department said that India plans to join as a signatory next month.

Pax Silica members will jointly establish multi-layered partnerships to strengthen supply chain security, address coercive dependencies and single points of failure, and promote the adoption of trustworthy technology ecosystems. The member states will collaborate on flagship projects across all levels of global technology stacks, including connectivity and edge infrastructure such as 6G, computing and data centers, advanced manufacturing, logistics, mineral refining and processing, and energy.

Last December, representatives from the U.S., Japan, Israel, Australia, Singapore, and South Korea jointly signed the “Silicon Peace Declaration” and held the first Pax Silica Summit. Taiwan, the European Union, Canada, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also participated as guests.

Source: CNA, January 15, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/ait/202601150136.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend