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Geo-Strategic Trend

CNA: China’s Crude Oil Imports Hit A Four-Year Low in April

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that, China’s crude oil imports fell to their lowest level in nearly four years in April, affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Data released today by China’s General Administration of Customs shows that China’s crude oil imports in April decreased by 20 percent year-over-year to 38.471 million tons.

As the world’s largest oil importer, China imports about half of its crude oil from the Middle East. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the number of tankers transporting crude oil and refined petroleum products has decreased significantly, impacting global energy transportation. The official Chinese data did not differentiate between seaborne crude oil and crude oil imported via pipeline. However, the cited data from ship tracking company Kpler showing that China’s seaborne crude oil imports in April totaled 8.03 million barrels per day, also a new low since July 2022.

The turbulent situation in the Middle East has also prompted China to strengthen controls on exports of refined oil products such as gasoline and aviation fuel in order to ensure domestic market supply. Under the influence of these policies, China’s refined oil exports in April fell to 3.119 million tons, a decrease of about one-third compared to March, marking the lowest level in nearly 10 years.

Source: CNA, May 9, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202605090175.aspx

Taiwan Advisory Body Warns of Chinese Religious Infiltration Tactics

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) held its 77th advisory committee meeting, focused on Beijing’s suppression of religious freedom and its use of religious exchanges as a tool for political influence operations targeting Taiwan.

Scholars at the meeting reported that China’s recent religious policies have trended toward “Sinicization” and tighter administrative control. Regulations such as rules governing the online behavior of religious clergy have further restricted religious freedom. Beijing continues to use religion as an influence channel, drawing Taiwanese to the mainland through temple pilgrimages, tourism, forums, institutional visits, and cultural performances.

Advisory members stressed that despite being an officially atheist state with no genuine religious freedom, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has long exploited religious and ethnic issues for social control. Cross-strait religious exchange, members argued, is in practice an instrument of political influence operations against Taiwan. The CCP systematically uses imagery of “ancestral temples” and “shared roots across the strait” to erode Taiwan’s religious and cultural autonomy.

The committee warned that the CCP uses these exchanges to build grassroots networks within Taiwan’s temple communities, establishing personal ties that can later be leveraged for infiltration. Members urged the government to screen applications from mainland Chinese individuals seeking to participate in religious exchange, and to intervene when activities exceed religious boundaries, ensuring that cross-strait religious exchange remains healthy and orderly.

Members also cautioned that the risks to Taiwanese citizens traveling to China for religious purposes are increasing, citing the detention of Taiwanese followers of Yiguandao on the mainland as an example of the legal uncertainty posed by Chinese religious regulations.

The Ministry of the Interior, which oversees religious affairs, attended the meeting and advised religious groups to register travel plans on its dedicated information portal before visiting China, enabling the government to provide assistance if needed.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), May 6, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202605060331.aspx

Wang Yi Calls for Sino-French Strengthen Strategic Communication

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Emmanuel Bonne, French President Macron’s diplomatic adviser, in Beijing on May 8, calling for strengthened strategic communication and coordination between the two countries to jointly address global challenges. Bonne, in turn, expressed France’s willingness to play an active role in promoting dialogue and cooperation between Europe and China.

Wang Yi noted that Macron’s visit to China last year demonstrated the high level and special nature of the bilateral relationship, and said China hopes to work with France to achieve greater progress in cooperation and bring more benefits to both peoples.

Wang Yi emphasized that in a world increasingly marked by disorder, China and France — as permanent members of the UN Security Council and independently minded major powers — bear significant responsibility for maintaining international peace, stability, and development. He called on both sides to strengthen strategic communication and coordination, push their comprehensive strategic partnership forward free from interference, and ensure its healthy and stable development.

Wang Yi also reiterated that the foundation of China-France relations rests on firm political mutual trust and mutual respect for each other’s core interests. He urged France to uphold the one-China principle in practice, refrain from any form of official exchanges with Taiwan’s authorities, and avoid sending any wrong signals to pro-independence forces.

Bonne affirmed that France fully understands the importance and sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, adheres to the one-China policy, and that this position will not change. He also stressed that under the current international situation, dialogue and cooperation between Europe and China are essential, and that the EU needs China as a trustworthy partner. France, he said, is willing to play a constructive role in advancing that relationship.

The two officials have spoken by phone twice previously this year — once in January to discuss global instability, and again in March to address the situation in the Middle East.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), May 9, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202605090114.aspx

China–Canada Tensions Rise Over Taiwan Issue Following Chinese Diplomat’s Remarks

On May 1, Canada’s Globe and Mail published an interview with Wang Di, China’s ambassador to Canada, who stated that the Taiwan issue constitutes a non-negotiable “red line” in China–Canada relations and that Ottawa must clearly articulate its position if bilateral ties are to advance. Wang criticized actions such as Canadian naval vessels transiting the Taiwan Strait and contacts between Canadian parliamentarians and Taiwanese officials, arguing that these violate the “One China” principle.

In response, Taiwan’s representative to Canada, Tseng Hou-jen, rejected Wang’s remarks in an interview with iPolitics, calling them “absurd” and counterproductive. Tseng argued that Wang’s statements reflect China’s tendency to “weaponize trade,” which could provoke backlash within Canadian political circles. He emphasized that the Taiwan Strait is an international waterway, not China’s internal waters, and that under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, all countries are entitled to freedom of navigation there.

Wang’s comments have drawn criticism from figures across Canada’s political and academic communities, who urged the government to uphold its principles in its engagement with Beijing. Those voicing concern include Senator Leo Housakos, Conservative deputy leader Melissa Lantsman, former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, and Vina Nadjibulla of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

The controversy comes amid efforts to revive bilateral ties following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s January visit to China, during which six agreements were signed to restart an eight-year-suspended “strategic partnership.” However, the visit also sparked domestic criticism after two Liberal lawmakers visiting Taiwan cut short their trip on government advice, with some politicians accusing Ottawa of yielding to pressure from Beijing.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), May 2, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202605020092.aspx

Despite Beijing’s Obstruction, Taiwan President Proceeds with State Visit to Eswatini

2026 marked the 58th anniversary of diplomatic ties between Taiwan and Eswatini. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te had planned to visit Eswatini from April 22 to 24 to attend celebrations marking King Mswati III’s 40th anniversary on the throne and his 58th birthday. However, the trip was disrupted after three countries—Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar—reportedly denied overflight permission for Taiwan’s presidential aircraft, allegedly under pressure from Beijing. Taiwan subsequently dispatched Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung as a special envoy, while the episode was viewed by Beijing as a diplomatic success.

In response, Taiwan and Eswatini coordinated an alternative arrangement. Eswatini sent its deputy prime minister to Taiwan aboard the king’s royal aircraft, reaffirming the close relationship between the two countries.

During the visit, the envoy formally invited Lai to travel to Eswatini using the royal aircraft, providing a workaround to the earlier flight restrictions. On May 2, Lai successfully arrived in Eswatini for an official state visit, reportedly catching Beijing off guard. He returned to Taiwan on May 5 aboard the same aircraft, flying over Mozambique, South Africa, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, accompanied by Eswatini’s deputy prime minister.

Sources:
1. Liberty Times (Taiwan), May 2, 2026
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/5423344
2. Lianhe Zaobao, May 5, 2026
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20260505-8999852

Xinhua: EU–Mercosur Free Trade Agreement Provisionally Enters into Force, Aiming to Reduce Dependence on the U.S.

Xinhua News Agency reported that a free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union and the Mercosur bloc provisionally entered into force on May 1, with the aim of diversifying the EU’s trade and reducing reliance on the United States. The deal, concluded after 25 years of negotiations and signed in January, is expected to eliminate billions of euros in tariffs and create a market of approximately 720 million people.

Xinhua’s report noted that U.S. President Trump’s tariff policies contributed to the agreement’s conclusion. The European Commission hopes the pact will help offset declining exports to the United States and mitigate potential impacts on gross domestic product (GDP).

Mercosur—comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and more recently Bolivia—will benefit from reduced tariffs and more predictable rules governing trade and investment. Ultimately, more than 90 percent of tariffs on bilateral trade are expected to be eliminated, facilitating exports such as European automobiles, machinery, and wine, as well as Mercosur products including meat, sugar, rice, and soybeans.

While the agreement has been approved by Mercosur member states, it remains controversial within the EU. Countries such as France have expressed opposition over concerns about the impact on domestic agriculture. The European Parliament has referred the agreement for legal review, and a final ruling by the EU’s top court could take up to two years.

Source: Xinhua, May 1, 2026
https://www.xinhuanet.com/20260501/49a9b9a632854b3bba49984469d5c3ea/c.html

PLA Daily: Japan Moves Beyond ‘Exclusively Defensive’ Policy, Expands Offensive Capabilities

People’s Daily has republished a commentary from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Daily asserting that Japan is moving beyond its long-standing “exclusively defensive” security posture and developing more offensive military capabilities:

On April 27, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated at a security policy review meeting that Japan must prepare for “new forms of warfare” and even “prolonged conflict.”

To this end, Japan is accelerating the development and deployment of longer-range strike capabilities. These include systems such as the Type 25 surface-to-ship missile, with an estimated range of around 1,000 kilometers, as well as hypersonic glide vehicles, with plans to extend strike ranges to approximately 2,000 kilometers. Japan is also acquiring U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles and Norway’s Joint Strike Missiles to equip its naval forces.

At the same time, Japan is undertaking a sweeping restructuring of its Self-Defense Forces. This includes what is described as the largest reorganization in the history of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, with the creation of a new “Surface Fleet” composed of three surface combat groups, alongside a patrol and defense group and an amphibious and mine warfare group. Japan is also expanding its space capabilities by upgrading its Space Operations Group to a Space Operations Regiment, with plans to further elevate it into a Space Operations Command. In parallel, it is establishing specialized intelligence units, reflecting a broader effort to modernize and strengthen its overall military structure and operational capacity.

Source: People’s Daily, April 30, 2026
http://military.people.com.cn/n1/2026/0430/c1011-40711778.html

Japan-China Tourism Collapses Amid Diplomatic Tensions

Japanese tourism to China has plummeted by as much as 90% following a sharp deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations triggered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks about a potential “Taiwan contingency.” The fallout has unleashed a triple blow on the travel industry: a dramatic reduction in flights, a sharp cooling of travel demand, and rising fuel costs driven by instability in the Middle East.

According to a report by Kyodo News, approximately 2,691 flights from China to Japan were cancelled in March alone, representing a cancellation rate of around 50 percent. One major Japanese travel agency reported that tour group cancellations to Shanghai surged to 50 percent after Takaichi’s comments in November last year, with the number of Japanese visitors to Shanghai falling 70 percent year-on-year by late last year.

Safety concerns have compounded the diplomatic chill. The 2024 stabbing attack on a school bus carrying students at a Japanese school in Suzhou, and the death of a Japanese schoolboy near a Japanese school in Shenzhen, have made many Japanese travelers wary of visiting China. The Chinese government also urged its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan in response to Takaichi’s statements, further straining bilateral tourism flows.

The collapse in visitor numbers has devastated Chinese tour guides who specialize in Japanese-speaking tourists. A guide in Xi’an with nearly 30 years of experience said he has not received a single Japanese client this year, while a Beijing-based guide reported that his income has fallen by 90 percent since March.

Industry insiders are pessimistic about a near-term recovery. Japan was once one of China’s top sources of inbound tourists, but experts warn that “as long as China-Japan relations do not improve and flight numbers do not increase, the Japanese tourism market to China will be difficult to recover in the short term.”

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), May 1, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202605010096.aspx