China is facing a severe economic slowdown and massive unemployment because the coronavirus hit it so badly.
#1: Caixin published a model that forecasted 150 to 200 million people will lose their jobs. Using the step-by-step estimation method, 200 million people (including 180 million in the service industry) will lose their jobs. Using the aggregation estimation method, 150 million (including 110 million in the service industry) will lose their jobs. (Caixin)
#2: According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by March 30, 76 percent of small or mid-sized companies resumed operation. That means 24 percent, or nearly a quarter of the companies did not resume yet. (HK01)
#3: The South China Morning Post reported that more than 460,000 companies in China stopped their operations in the first quarter. (Radio France International)
#4: Western buyers have canceled many orders they placed with Chinese companies. The only hot orders are medical supplies. There will be 9 million college students graduating this summer. However, the number of possible jobs for those college graduates has dropped 30 percent from a year ago. Peng Airao, the Chief Economist of the Great China Regions of the ING Bank, predicted that China’s unemployment rate may rise to 10 percent by the end of this year. (Voice of America)
Related postings on Chinascope:
- Economy: China’s Exports in January and February Dropped 17 Percent
- Economy: Near 8,000 Performances Cancelled in China, Causing 1 Billion Yuan Loss
1. Excerpt in Chinese:
初步的分析表明，新冠疫情当前对中国就业形势已经产生重要的影响，目前两种方法估算的摩擦性失业(因季节性或技术性原因而引起的失业)总规模在1.5亿-2亿人之间
新冠疫情目前对规模以上工业企业就业的影响程度在500万人左右.
中小型工业企业的摩擦性失业情况接近2千万人
服务业的摩擦性失业情况接近1亿8千万人
综上所述，从规模以上工业企业、中小型工业企业和服务业的分项分析来看，中国因新冠疫情影响的摩擦性失业人数达到2.05亿人左右
按照总量估计的方法，新冠疫情影响下，当前中国失业压力在1.5亿人左右，其中第二产业在4千万人左右，第三产业在1.1亿人左右
Source: Caixin, March 31, 2020
http://m.opinion.caixin.com/m/2020-03-31/101536480.html
2. Excerpt in Chinese:
中国工信部3月30日最新公布的数据显示，中国中小企业复工率达76%。这一数据相较于之前，无疑是向好的转变。在一个月前的2月26日中国中小企业复工率是32.8%。但反过来讲，这意味着还有至少接近1/4的中小企业面临严重的生存危机。
尤其是占到中国经济总量近54%，承载了大量就业的服务业等第三产业，更是面临生死考验
Source: HK01, April 3, 2020
https://www.hk01.com/議事廳/456565/新冠肺炎-近1-4中小企業停擺-復工復產背後危機遠未結束
3. Excerpt in Chinese:
自香港方面消息，受到新冠肺炎疫情蔓延及“封城”等防控病毒传播政策影响，中国第一季度有超过46万家公司停止营业，其中过一半的公司营业已超过3年。
在珠三角地带的东莞，不少当地工厂和店铺因受到近来国际需求的突然下跌而出现关门和空无一人的景象。报道指，东莞劳工部门在上个月表示，三月份，由于海外订单枯竭，该市一家本地的手提袋和玩具生产出口企业，东莞奇妙玩具公司因此倒闭。当地政府已命令工厂的厂主支付未付的员工工资。
Source: Radio France International, April 6, 2020
http://www.rfi.fr/cn/中国/20200406-受新冠疫情冲击-中国首季度46万家公司倒闭
4. Excerpt in Chinese:
西方买家纷纷取消订单，迫使许多装配线无法开工，除非对装配线进行改造用来生产医用口罩等市场需求火爆的医疗物资。
中国河南省EHL国际物流平台发现，最近的销售额下跌了50%，外国商品进口已经停止，中国商品的订单大幅度减少，几乎只剩下口罩订单
分析人士说，这种情况可能会在近期造成更多人失业和就业机会减少，而今年夏季将有近900万大学生毕业进入就业市场。北京大学光华管理学院和就业平台招聘.com联手进行的一项调查发现，今年头两个月，可供应届毕业生选择的工作数量比去年同期减少了30%。
华尔街日报周一引用香港ING银行大中华区首席经济学家彭蔼娆的话说，中国城镇失业率可能会在今年年底上涨到10%，除非地方政府采取财政刺激，振兴经济。
Source: VOA, April 2, 2020
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-layoffs-unemployment-/5357197.html