Cai Fang, Director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, published to rebuttal to the prediction that the bubble of the Chinese economy may burst. He also admitted that China’s economy is in for a period of slow growth.
Cai wrote that, over the years, there have been significant changes in the demographic structure of China’s population. After the growth rate of the population between 15 and 59 peaked in 2010, it then slowed down and has since fallen. On the other hand, the dependency ratio is increasing. This fundamental demographic change has led to a general shortage of workers, persistent wage increases, a substantial surge in manufacturing costs, and the disappearance of China’s traditional competitive advantage. More importantly, because there is no unlimited supply of labor, the returns on capital have been decreasing. The returns on investment have fallen considerably. The gradual reduction of surplus agricultural labor will also slow the labor reallocation of resources, thereby reducing any improvement in productivity. Therefore, China is expected to experience a period of slow growth in its economy.
Source: Qiushi, July 15, 2014