Skip to content

All posts by NNL - 38. page

China’s Weaponization of Mekong River Dams to Pressure Downstream Countries

For the past decade, the Mekong River has had abnormal water pattern: high flows during the dry season and low flows during the rainy season. This is caused by the upstream Chinese dams, which release water for power generation during the dry season and retain water during the rainy season.

The Mekong River has a total length of more than 4,800 kilometers (~3000 miles) in its main branch. Its 2,139-kilometer (1330 mile) upper section in China is known as the Lancang River. After flowing out of China, the Mekong River flows through five countries in Southeast Asia – Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. It is a lifeline supporting 65 million people.

By the end of December 2020, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had built 12 giant dams on the main branch of the Lancang River, with eight more under construction. In addition, there are 85 dams on hundreds of tributaries to the Lancang River.

On January 1, 2019, China put four newly-constructed dams into operation. As a result, the Lower Mekong has experienced a severe drought starting that year and lasting for more than four years (through the present).

The year 2020 was the driest year for the Mekong on record. Although upstream Chinese reservoirs had sufficient water during the rainy season, some of the Mekong River beds downstream were dry and cracked.

China’s use of dams to exert pressure on downstream countries has been going on since at least 2016. In March of that year, the Mekong River’s water volume was reduced, and Vietnam’s rice region suffered a severe drought, with seawater back filling the river bed. The CCP then took the “generous” step of releasing water for “disaster relief.” A week later, China’s then-Premier Li Keqiang hosted the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Meeting in Sanya, Hainan. The five thirsty downstream countries signed the Lancang-Mekong Agreement, signing on to Chinese investment, loans, and a special fund to promote China’s Belt Road Initiative in Southeast Asia.

Source: Epoch Times, August 10, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/8/10/n14051766.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese Author: Chinese Insurance Industry is a Time Bomb

Lao Man (老蛮) is a Chinese writer who publishes on economic topics. He recently published an article warning that Chinese insurance companies are another time bomb that may explode soon.

He gave the following data (in Billions of Yuan):

  • Year                       Investment Income          Payout       Net
  • 2018                               7,105                          12,298        -5,193
  • 2019                               9,152                          12,984        -3,832
  • 2020                               11,729                        13,907        -2,178
  • 2021                               12,775                        15,609        -2,834
  • 2022                               4,640                          15,485        -10,845
  • 2023 (Jan – Jun)          3,194                          9,151          -5,957

He pointed out that many insurance companies have a cash pool for investment, and that they use their investment returns to cover part of their insurance payouts (with any gap between investment income and insurance payouts being made up by e.g. premiums charged to the insured).

It was a good sign that the gap between the investment income and insurance payouts was shrinking from 2018 to 2020. The gap held steady in 2021, but it shot up dramatically in 2022 and has remained high during the first half of 2023.

The reason is that insurance companies can no longer generate high returns on their investments due to China’s economic downslide. This will inevitably eat into the insurance companies’ cash pools. According to the article, insurers will be forced to take in more customers and use the new customers’ money to pay for the existing customers, essentially running a Ponzi scheme.

Source: China News, August 15, 2023
https://news.creaders.net/china/2023/08/15/2637675.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Lianhe Zaobao Criticizes Xi Jinping

Singapore-based Lianhe Zaobao used to maintain good relations with the Chinese Communist Party. Recently, however, it published a commentary that openly criticized Beijing’s policy. Two versions of the commentary were published.

The first version has the author’s name in the title: “Liu Mengxiong: the Problem Is Economic, But the Root Cause is Political.” Liu is a Hong Kong businessman and former member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. In the past, he had a pro-Beijing stance. The second version of the article, titled “Commentary: the Problem Is Economic, But the Root Cause Is Political,” indicated the author’s name in a footnote.

In the article, Liu listed economic problems faced by China, praised Deng Xiaoping’s policy of economic reform, and criticized Xi Jinping’s policy (without mentioning Xi’s name explicitly). “The first 30-odd years of reform and opening up were characterized by a steady upward trajectory, but in recent years, [China] has fallen into a downward spiral. If we look at the essence of the phenomenon, we will find that the most fundamental reason for the economic reversal lies in politics.”

The article lists many policies that, in the author’s opinion, have had a negative impact. These include stressing the party’s control over companies, policy on COVID, and the CCP’s hostility against the U.S.

The article ends by calling for political reform and stating that “The economic adversity caused by politics must be treated politically. The question is, does the princeling leader have the sense of historical mission and vision necessary to realize economic marketization, the rule of law, and the democratization of politics through reform of the political system?”

Sources:
1. Lianhe Zaobao, August 21, 2023
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/forum/views/story20230821-1425457
2. Lianhe Zaobao, August 21, 2023
https://www.kzaobao.com/mon/keji/20230821/145204.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

Xi’an Government Threatens to Punish Families of Alleged Fraudsters Staying Abroad

The Chang’an Branch of the Xi’an Municipal Public Security Bureau, Shaanxi Province, issued a notice on August 14 regarding individuals staying abroad who are “highly likely to have engaged in fraud.” Among those mentioned were those “staying in northern Myanmar,” “staying in the Golden Triangle,” “staying in the UAE,” and “staying in Cambodia.” The article didn’t name specific crimes committed. {Editor’s Note: This might refer to people involved in the crime rings of Internet fraud operated in those areas, but it may also include people trying to escape the communist regime by going to those countries to apply for asylum.}

The notice stated that “those individuals involved in fraud who are illegally staying overseas” must return through official channels by September 10. They must also report to local police stations 14 days before entry to China. Failure to comply with the order would result in “the individual and those within his/her direct three generations being subject to strict scrutiny during political examination when applying to join the Communist Youth League, the Communist Party, and the military, or when applying for the jobs of civil service and positions supported by public funding.” The term “three generations” include grandparents, parents, children, and grandchildren.

Source: Radio France International, August 16, 2023
https://www.rfi.fr/cn/中国/20230815-西安通告-家有嫌犯不归-查直系三代

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Qiushi: Xi Jinping’s Speech on Modernization With Chinese Characteristics (Not “the Old Path of the Western Countries”)

Qiushi Theory recently published speech given by Xi Jinping. The speech was given on February 7, 2023, following the CCP’s 20th Party Congress. The audience was the newly “elected” members and alternate members of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) Central Committee as well as major leading cadres at the provincial and ministerial level.

Xi stated: “The path of modernization that a country chooses is determined by its historical tradition, social system, development conditions, external environment, and many other factors. Different national conditions will lead to different paths of modernization. Practice has proved that a country’s modernization should not only follow the general law of modernization, but also conform to its own realities and have its own characteristics. Chinese-style modernization has the common features of modernization in all countries, but it also has distinctive features based on its own national conditions.”

Xi further stated twice that China should not take the “old path of Western countries.” {Editor’s note: the problems that Xi highlights as resulting from “the Western path” of modernization have already come to pass in China. See below.}

“Fourthly, the modernization of mankind in harmony with nature. Since modern times, most of the modernization of western countries have gone through the stage of wanton plundering of natural resources and vicious destruction of the ecological environment, often causing serious problems such as environmental pollution and resource depletion while creating huge material wealth. … (I)t is impossible for China to follow the old path of Western modernization.”

“Fifthly, modernization on the path of peaceful development. The modernization of Western countries is full of bloody evils such as war, slavery, colonization, and plundering, and has brought deep suffering to the vast number of developing countries. The Chinese nation, having experienced the tragic history of invasion and abuse by Western powers, is well aware of the preciousness of peace and will never repeat the same old path of the Western countries.”

Source: Qiushi, August 15, 2023
http://www.qstheory.cn/dukan/qs/2023-08/15/c_1129801483.htm

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Guangcha: U.S. Media Reported on China’s New Airport at Disputed Island Near Vietnam

Chinese media outlet Guangcha reported on a story run by U.S.-based news website The Drive. The “Warzone” of section of The Drive reported that China is building an airport on Triton Island, a small island among the disputed Paracels archipelago in the South China Sea. Triton Island is the closest of the archipelago’s islands to the coast of Vietnam.

Satellite images show a newly constructed runway, a large construction area, and a cement factory. The Drive’s article notes swift progress on construction of a 600-meter (2,000 feet) runway which the article says enhances logistic and aviation support capabilities, strengthening the Chinese army’s presence. The runway could be used for hosting short takeoff and landing fixed-wing types, such as turboprops and light aircraft, and also unmanned drones. According to the article, the island expands China’s surveillance and regional denial capabilities and may also be able to host forward operations such as submarine base.

The Guangcha article, after republishing some content from the article by The Drive, quoted Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: “The U.S.’ use of the South China Sea issue to provoke issues among regional countries is extremely irresponsible and has ulterior motives.” “China, together with ASEAN countries, will continue to work to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea and to promote prosperity and development in the region.”

{Editor’s Note: Guangcha is a Chinese media outlet that translates or summarizes reports from media in other countries with the purpose of aggrandizing the Chinese communist regime or of criticizing the U.S. and other Western countries, taking shots at the Western democratic system and “`values.}

Sources:
1. Guangcha, August 17, 2023
https://www.guancha.cn/military-affairs/2023_08_17_705410.shtml
2. The Drive, August 15, 2023
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/runway-being-built-on-chinas-closest-island-outpost-to-vietnam

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Australian Broadcasting Corporation: Chinese Police Communicating With Australians Over the Internet

Australian Broadcasting Corporation recently reported that it has obtained a Chinese government document indicating that Chinese police have begun using cloud technology to operate “contact points,” extending the reach of Chinese policing into Australia. The “contact points” are operated by the Hai’an Police Department in Jiangsu Province, using cloud meeting by Tencent (similar to a Zoom meeting) and WeChat to communicate with Australian citizens as well as Chinese people living in Australia. According to Chinese media Xinhua Daily, Chinese students in Australia have been hired as overseas liaison officers to onboard people into this online system.

The report follows the high-profile discovery of several clandestine “Chinese police stations” operating in Canada, the U.S., and several European countries earlier this year. Chinese authorities maintain that these covert police stations were merely providing administrative services such as renewal of passports or driver’s licenses, while human rights experts have said that the police stations were likely used to intimidate Chinese dissidents and monitor Chinese nationals living abroad.

Westphalian sovereignty, a well-known principle in international law, holds that each country has exclusive sovereignty over its territory. A consequence of this principle is that states should not conduct official business (including policing) within other countries. Western countries have viewed Chinese police activities within their borders as violations of their sovereignty.

 

Source: Australian Broadcasting Corporation, August 4, 2023
https://www.abc.net.au/chinese/2023-08-04/china-overseas-police-station-australian-contact-point-cloud/102685646

 

 

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

People’s Daily: “Strike Hard!” – CIA Spy Busted by Chinese National Security

People’s Daily reported that a Chinese national, last name Zeng, has been arrested for spying on behalf of the US. According to the article, Zeng was born in July 1971 and works at a Chinese military industrial company. Zeng had access to important classified information. When Zeng was sent to study in Italy by the Chinese government, an official named “Seth” from the U.S. Embassy in Italy approached him and eventually recruited him to be a CIA spy. Zeng signed a spy agreement with the U.S. and participated in CIA examinations and training. After returning to China, Zeng met secretly with CIA personnel many times, providing a large amount of core intelligence information to the U.S. and receiving money from the U.S.

The People’s Daily article follows CIA Director William Burns’ recent statement that the U.S. has made progress in rebuilding its spy networks in China, as well as the U.S.’ recent arrest of two Navy servicemen accused of transmitting military information to China.

Source: People’s Daily, August 11, 2023
http://society.people.com.cn/n1/2023/0811/c1008-40054456.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military US-China Relations