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DW Chinese: China’s December Manufacturing PMI Hit Six-Month Low

Deutsche Welle Chinese Edition recently reported that, according to official data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in December was 49.0 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. China’s PMI has been declining for three consecutive months and has now hit a new six-month low. The PMI was also below the Reuter’s estimated median forecast of 49.5 percent.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said that the decline in manufacturing PMI was affected by factors such as the low production rates of some raw materials during the off-season. Some economists expressed the belief that China must take government action to increase support for the economy, lest the trend of slow growth should continue. Analysts expect the central bank to lower interest rates and the bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR) during the coming weeks.

The data from the Bureau of Statistics also showed that, in December, the new orders sub-index of the PMI was 48.7 percent, a decrease of 0.7 percentage from the previous month. This indicates that demand in the manufacturing market has declined. The employment sub-index was 47.9 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage from the previous month, indicating that employment in manufacturing has declined. The Bureau’s senior statistician said that the external environment (referring to China’s relationship with other countries) is “increasingly complex, severe, and uncertain.” He added that the reduction of overseas orders and insufficient effective domestic demand are the main difficulties facing Chinese companies.

Source: DW Chinese, December 31, 2023
http://tinyurl.com/2ccpp5mr

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

CNA: The U.S. Became South Korea’s Largest Export Market

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that, in December 2023, South Korea’s exports to the United States exceeded its exports to China for the first time in 20 years.

Amid tensions over global economic security and technology supply chains, this is an important sign of changes in international relations. According to South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, South Korea’s December 2023 exports to the U.S. and to China were US$11.3 billion and US$10.9 billion, respectively. South Korea’s overall export volume increased at an annual rate of 5.1 percent. South Korea’s overall import value fell by 10.8 percent compared with the same period last year, and the trade surplus expanded to US$4.5 billion.

Although single-month data is not enough to prove that there has been a long-term shift in trading patterns, this change can still be taken as a reflection of the economic challenges facing China. In the meantime, the United States has been trying to win support from its allies to reduce global supply chain dependence on China and to limit Beijing’s access to advanced semiconductor technology. South Korea has forged closer ties with the United States under President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Source: CNA, January 1, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202401013004.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

CNA: Huawei’s 5G Mobile Phone Production Capacity is Insufficient

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently ran an article on Huawei and its competitors in the Chinese mobile phone industry. Below are some key points from the article.

Huawei returned to the 5G space with the unexpected launch of its Mate 60 Pro mobile phone in August 2023. Although the mobile phone launch was very topical and triggered a frenzy of consumer activity, multiple data sources show that Huawei’s 5G handset production capacity is quite insufficient. Huawei’s “grand return to 5G” failed to break the pattern seen in China’s mobile phone market in 2023.

According to International Data Corporation (IDC), 28.71 million new smartphones were registered in the Chinese market in November 2023. Among them, Apple ranked first, with a market share of 21.1 percent; Xiaomi ranked second, with 18.3 percent; Huawei rose to 14 percent and ranked third; Vivo and OPPO ranked fifth and sixth with 13.4 percent and 13.1 percent respectively.

Counterpoint Research data showed that, in October 2023, the best-selling smartphone in China was not a Huawei product but rather the Apple iPhone 15 Pro Max, with a market share of 5 percent. The Huawei Mate 60 Pro phone ranked second with a 4 percent market share, and the smartphones ranked 3rd through 5th were also iPhones.

Tencent News said that, while players in the industry had regarded Huawei’s return to 5G speed as the biggest variable affecting the mobile phone industry in 2023, Huawei’s insufficient production capacity means that the competitive landscape in China has not shifted as much as anticipated. According to data from research institute Canalys, China’s smartphone market shipped 66.7 million units in the third quarter of 2023, with Huawei not being ranked among the top five in terms of shipments.

Source: CNA, December 29, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202312290278.aspx

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology

China’s Marriage Rate Among Young Persons Remains Low

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to the newly published “China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook 2023” compiled by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, late marriage has become a common phenomenon in China. By the end of year 2022, the rates of unmarried persons among various age groups are:

  • Around 51.3 percent are unmarried in the 25-29 age group,
  • 18.4 percent unmarried the 30-34 age group, and
  • 8 percent unmarried in the 35-39 age group.

The unmarried rate among 29-year-olds is 34 percent. In other words, about one in three 29-year-olds is unmarried.

Judging from the age structure of the married population in China since 2010, the age of marriage (and especially the age of first marriage) is now significantly older. China’s average first marriage age in 2020 is 28.67 years old, an increase of 3.78 years from the average first marriage age in 2010 (24.89 years old).

Competitive pressure for employment and longer years of education have resulted in delayed marriage and childbirth. In big cities, young people have a relatively high degree of independence in social life, which has also greatly affected the rate of marriage and age of marriage.

Source: Sina, December 28, 2023
https://news.sina.cn/gn/2023-12-28/detail-imzzqrrs7044951.d.html?vt=4&pos=108&his=0

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

Xinhua: China Exported More Cars in 2023 Than Any Other Country

Xinhua recently reported that, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China’s automobile exports from January to November were 4.412 million units, a year-over-year increase of 58.4 percent. Among them, a total of 1.091 million new energy vehicles were exported, a year-over-year increase of 83.5 percent. Judging from this trend, it is basically a foregone conclusion that the scale of China’s automobile exports in 2023 will exceed the five million vehicle mark.

Japan’s Kyodo News also reported, citing the latest data, that Japan’s automobile exports from January to November this year were 3.99 million units. Although the export data for December have not yet been released, China’s automobile exports are expected to surpass Japan’s in 2023. This will be the first time that China tops the charts as the world’s number one automobile exporter.

In the past year, Chinese car makers have deeply penetrated automobile markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Russia, South America, Asia and Africa, while accelerating the development of the new energy markets such as Europe and North America. For Chinese automakers, Russia offered a large market, and the exit of Japanese and Western automakers from Russia was a boon to Chinese rivals. From January to October 2023, China exported 730,000 cars to Russia, seven times more than the same period in 2022. China’s electric vehicles exports were strong and affordably-priced, one of the primary factors determining China’s top ranking in auto exports worldwide.

Sources:
(1) Xinhua, December 29, 2023
http://www.xinhuanet.com/auto/20231229/5f55c75e3f564789a6fb741e6d85c88c/c.html

(2) Tencent News, December 29, 2023
https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20231229A08X2300

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Lianhe Zaobao: U.S. May Increase Tariffs on Some Chinese Goods

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that, according to sources familiar with the matter, the U.S. government recently resumed discussions on Trump-Era tariffs imposed on about US$300 billion of Chinese goods.

The Biden administration may raise tariffs on clean energy products. Tariffs on electric vehicles may increase. Chinese electric vehicles already face 25 percent tariffs, which limits the number of vehicles Chinese automakers can export to the United States. Other potential targets for higher tariffs include Chinese solar products and electric vehicle battery packs. The administration may also consider lowering tariffs on Chinese consumer products that officials consider not strategically important.

As China’s domestic economy declines, clean energy commodities are flooding into the global market at low prices. As a result, U.S. officials worry that U.S. companies will not be able to compete with Chinese products, even given the protection of existing tariffs and new subsidies. Some analysts have also pointed out that the United States government is preparing for next year’s presidential election, saying that the U.S. political parties may be motivated to take a tough stance against China in order to win votes.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented that “The U.S.’s unilateral increase in tariffs violates the principles of the market economy and fair competition, and it threatens the security of global industrial and supply chains”.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, December 21, 2023
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/world/story20231221-1457395?amp

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

LTN: Air Pollution Has Worsened in China

Major Taiwanese news network Liberty Times Network (LTN) ran an article saying that China’s air pollution has worsened this year. The article cited a recent report by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), an independent research organization based in Finland.

This is the first time since China began to combat air pollution in 2013 that China’s national average concentration of PM2.5 is higher than the previous year. Including Beijing, around 80 percent of China’s provincial capital cities have detected this year an increase in PM2.5 concentrations compared with last year. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency “PM2.5 describes fine inhalable particles, with diameters that are generally 2.5 micrometers and smaller.”

Fossil fuel energy use in China has increased in the last year. Moreover, increased anthropogenic emissions have been a major factor pushing up pollution levels in China. In areas where PM2.5 levels do not meet World Health Organization safety standards, coal production and thermal power generation increased by 4.4 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively.

In a separate study published earlier this month, an international coalition of climate scientists noted that China’s coal, oil and natural gas emissions increased as the Covid-19 pandemic slowed. Although China stepped up its pollution control efforts in 2015 after bidding to host the Winter Olympics, the country’s air quality is still below World Health Organization standards.

Source:

LTN, December 24, 2023
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/4529554

EPA, November 1, 2023
https://www.epa.gov/air-trends/particulate-matter-pm25-trends

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

Oriental Daily: U.S. Bans Military Use of Seaports that Employ Chinese Logistics Platform LOGINK

Oriental Daily News, Hong Kong’s number one newspaper in circulation since 1976, recently reported that the U.S. 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, just signed into law by President Biden, contains provisions that prohibit the Pentagon from using any seaport that relies on China’s national logistics platform (LOGINK).

LOGINK is a key project sponsored by China’s State Council. Led by the Chinese Ministry of Transportation and the National Development Commission, LOGINK is a Chinese government transportation infrastructure project enabling the distribution and management of logistics information. The system is deployed to more than 20 ports around the world: 6 in Japan, 5 in South Korea, 1 in Malaysia, at least 9 in Europe, and 3 in the Middle East.

Under the new U.S. National Defense Authorization Act, Congress authorized a study of how foreign forces at the 15 largest container ports in the United States affect U.S. national and economic security, and the Secretary of State is to begin negotiations with U.S. allies and partners to have relevant countries to remove LOGINK software from their ports.

Senator Tom Cotton and Representative Michelle Steel, who sponsored the legislation, pointed out that China’s national logistics platform allows Beijing to monitor the U.S. military supply chain, which relies on commercial ports. LOGINK enables such monitoring by tracking the movement of cargo and ships .through a centralized system. Steele said LOGINK operates under the management of the Chinese government and that the threat posed by the software is very serious.

Beijing has invested in about 100 ports in more than 60 countries.

Source: Oriental Daily News, December 24, 2023
https://orientaldaily.on.cc/content/china_world/odn-20231224-1224_00178_003/

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology