Briefings - 1154. page

Voice of America published an article about the Chinese Stimulus Package based on reports by the Chinese State Auditing Administration. The auditing publication revealed issues on the how the spending effort was completed. Some investments were used for monetary speculation. Some funds were not actually delivered to the intended projects. Small and medium sized businesses were left behind. By the end of March, based on audit results covering 335 new projects in 18 provinces, the Central Government delivered 94% of the promised funds while only 48% of corresponding local investments were actually completed. The US agency Stratfor Global Intelligence suggested that, the Chinese Stimulus Package can help the economy in the short term at the cost of a long term solution.

Source: VOA, May 20, 2009.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/n2009-05-20-voa2.cfm

On May 20, the International Herald Leader, under Xinhua News, reported on the foundation laying ceremony for China’s biggest luxury shopping center in Shanghai. Among the ceremony attendees was French LVMH group President Beorne Arnold who expressed confidence in the Chinese market.

Beorne Arnold’s confidence is not unfounded. According to a research, in 2008, for the first time, China replaced the U.S. and became the second largest consumer of luxury goods in the world. However, China’s luxury goods consumption is a dysfunctional social phenomenon. The majority of luxury goods consumers are young people with less earning power who buy things in order to show off. Additionally, non-Chinese brands dominate the luxury goods market, which negatively impacts the expansion of China’s domestic brands. The consumption also does not help the tens of millions of Chinese who are living below the poverty line. Per China’s present poverty relief standard, over 40 million people live below poverty line. Using the UN’s poverty standard, the number is over 150 million.

Source: International Herald Leader, May 25, 2009.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/herald/2009-05/25/content_11430893.htm

Epoch Times expressed that the report that China released on 2009 first quarter GDP was not convincing and the Economist pointed out that the figures had likely been fudged. The government released GDP and production numbers for the first quarter of 2009 declaring 6.1% and 16% increases respectively over the same period in 2008. However, the electricity production in the first quarter was 4% down from the same period a year earlier. In the past, GDP and electricity output have moved broadly together, although it is not a one-to-one relationship.

Economists have long questioned whether China has been massaging its GDP data. It is widely believed that China’s GDP growth was overstated during the period after the Tiananmen Square Massacre and the Asia Crisis period.

Source:
[1] Epoch Times, May 25, 2009
http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/9/5/25/n2537054.htm
[2] Economist, May 21, 2009
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13692907