Economy/Resources - 211. page

Tan Yaling, President of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, predicted that 2012 may present potential risks in three areas of the international financial market: First, there are risks to the Euro and a crisis is imminent. Greece or Germany may opt out, which may lead to higher Euro risks and a further crisis. Second, oil price hikes may lead to severe inflation and an economic crisis would be inevitable. Third, fluctuations is the price of gold will be unpredictable and there will be an increase in speculative moves in the gold market. While the price of gold may continue to rise, severe drops may occur. The price of gold is a double-edged sword. It may protect the dollar and the U.S. but the U.S. may also be forced to sell gold in order to save itself.

Source: Xinhua, January 24, 2012
http://news.xinhuanet.com/finance/2012-01/24/c_122611836_4.htm

Outlook Weekly published an article discussing China’s economic growth in the mid to long term. It listed four challenges that China faces:

1. As the global economy is still depressed, the demand for exports may negatively impact China’s economic growth. In 2011, exports dragged down the GDP growth rate by 5.8%.

2. Consumption is likely to stay at the same level. However, the continued economic depression may cause consumption to decrease.

3. The pressure of inflation still exists due to a lack of land in cities, a rapid increase in labor and service costs, an upward adjustment in service industry pricing, the the continuous increase in the price of agricultural products as a result of urbanization, and the ongoing pricing reform

4. High financial leverage results in a risk of bad loans. The M2/GDP ratio, which was 180% in 2011, is higher than in both developed countries and developing countries that are at a comparable income level with China. Local governments and state-owned enterprises are both highly leveraged.

Source: Outlook Weekly, republished on Sohu.com, January 29, 2012
http://news.sohu.com/20120129/n333094430.shtml

China News Net published its first commentary after Chinese New Year’s Day, summarizing the three new year’s resolutions that are on many people’s minds. Number one on the wish list is a further drop in the price of housing. The year 2011 was the year we saw the strongest decline in housing prices. However, for most people, the price level is still far from affordable. The second wish on the list is an increase in income. Although statistically there was an increase in income last year, the high pressure of inflation made the increase seem inconsequential. The third biggest item most people wish for is a large improvement in food safety. In the past year, a wide range of food safety incidents occurred in the consumer market, having to do with pork, cooking oil, frozen dumplings, infant formula, beverages, and more.

Source: China News Net, January 29, 2012
http://www.chinanews.com/cj/2012/01-29/3624990.shtml

China Review News (CRN) recently published an article commenting on China’s current financial position in the world, its weaknesses, and suggestions for future growth. The commentary pointed out that, by the end of October of last year, the assets of China’s central bank were the highest in the world, having reached US$4.73 trillion. At the same time, assets of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the EU Central Bank, and the Japanese central bank reached US$2.85 trillion, US$2.73 trillion and US$1.8 trillion, respectively. China also has the highest savings rate as well as the highest foreign exchange reserves. However, China’s financial system is leaning too heavily towards manufacturing and infrastructure investments. Investment in medium and small enterprises is still lacking. Another problem lies in the area of China’s overseas investments, which have a very low yield of 3%-5%. The commentary made two suggestions: that China should establish financial institutes designed to serve medium and small businesses, and that the practice of the large scale purchase of foreign bonds should be completely changed. Investments should switch to stock shares and other types of ownership of overseas economic entities, including U.S. assets.

Source: China Review News, January 20, 2012
http://gb.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1019/7/1/6/101971606.html?coluid=136&kindid=4710&docid=101971606&mdate=0120000611

Zhang Anyuan, the Director of the Office of Fiscal Finance at the Economic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, proposed two approaches to use regarding China’s foreign reserves. “Rather than watching our foreign exchange reserves shrink in value, we should use them to solve domestic problems.” The first approach is to “convert financial assets into reserves of resources,” whereby China encourages the exploration but limits the production of oil, coal, iron ore, and non-ferrous metals. This would increase their imports, reduce the foreign exchange reserves and keep the reserves of resources available in China. The second approach is to “inject funds into local financial entities so as to increase their credit ratings.” According to Zhang, local financial entities have entered into the peak period when payments are due on the government bonds they previously issued. Some of them may face a high probability of liquidity risks. Such an injection of funds will help improve their credit ratings so that these local financial entities can issue more bonds, domestically or in Hong Kong, to solve their liquidity problems for the payments on the bonds they previously issued. 

Source: Modern Bankers reprinted by Sina.com, January 19, 2012
http://finance.sina.com.cn/leadership/mroll/20120119/160911242096.shtml

Outlook Weekly published an article about the West’s pessimistic forecasts for China’s economy. The article pointed out that these negative Western forecasts about China’s economy have never materialized. It stated that there are three reasons: One, Western economists do not want to see a rising China and have the wishful thinking that China will go downhill and collapse. Two, the Western economists measure China against the history of the growth of Korea and Japan. They believe that if other countries such as Korea and Japan did not make it, then China will not be able to make it either. Three, China’s market economy is one that is atypical. When Western economists reviewed the prospects for China’s economy, they relied on the methodology and standards applicable only to typical market economies. That is why their grim forecasts for China have failed to materialize.

Source: Outlook Weekly reprinted by sohu.com, January 21, 2012.
http://news.sohu.com/20120121/n332841922.shtml

Outlook Weekly recently interviewed Fang Jianping, the Chief Economist at China’s State Information Center. In the interview, Fang stated that the real challenge to the economy in 2012 will be the economic structural adjustments, rather than inflation or GDP growth. “Although the price level and growth rate may both show downward movement, it will not be drastic and will not exceed the expected range of the State’s macro-control. The potential growth rate of the economy is between 8 and 9 percent. The real challenge is whether there will be substantial progress in the structural adjustments.”

Source: Outlook Weekly, reprinted on China’s Communist Party website, January 17, 2012
http://theory.people.com.cn/BIG5/49154/49155/16901916.html

Over the past year, waves of Chinese companies (28 in total) have been delisted from U.S. stock exchanges. Since 2011, the total market value of the delisted and about to be delisted Chinese companies has amounted to US$7.8 billion. That compares to US$2.2 billion for IPOs that Chinese companies have issued in the U.S. market. The large number of delisted companies has also had an effect on other Chinese companies that are planning to go public in the U.S. The reasons for the delistings include a stock price that is too low, back door listings (such as reverse takeovers or reverse mergers), and fraudulent accounting practices. The fraudulent accounting practices are the most common reason for delisting.

Source: China Review News, January 24, 2012
http://www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1019/8/3/8/101983871.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=101983871&mdate=0124000417